€20 NLHE 6-max: Rivered my boat, what's my bet size ? or do I check?

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ComplexPlaya

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/14/2

448 hands on villain, doesn't seem too aggressive. Have a note on him when he flatted AA on the button.


Entraction - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: €28.22
Hero (SB): €25.36
BB: €23.40

Hero posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has J:diamond: J:club:

fold, Hero raises to €0.60, BB calls €0.40

Flop: (€1.20, 2 players) T:heart: 2:heart: 3:diamond:
Hero bets €0.90, BB calls €0.90

Turn: (€3.00, 2 players) J:heart:
Hero bets €2.00, BB raises to €6.20, Hero calls €4.20

River: (€15.40, 2 players) 2:spade:
Hero ????

So he has a pot size left behind, I cover. do I put him all in or is he capable of folding something here What do you think his range for raising my turn bet is and how much of it calls a shove, how much a 1/2 pot bet.

Should I check and let him do the betting instead, though I don't like that because I think I'll get check behind a lot when the board pairs
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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Bet something like 8-10 and hope he raises, I doubt hes folding a decent flush here tbh
 
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Marginal

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Yeah but he is not raising a flush either if he is not an aggressive player. I think if you plan on betting, you need to shove here. I doubt 20nl players can fold flushes.
 
ben_rhyno

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Either way I'm never checking
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I did shove, and he folded. That makes my turn call incorrect if he indeed had a flush, as I was calling for implied odds basically. This has to be the weird exception though right ? Now I'm thinking he might have JT in his range or AJ with A hearts, and they can call a 1/2 pot but not a shove. Am I just being results oriented I wonder...
 
WVHillbilly

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AhJ and JT are only 4 total combos and he probably calss a shove with JT anyway. If he has hearts he's unlikely to raise but he always calls. If he doesn't have hearts it sounds like he's not likely to be the type to bluff the river if he misses. He's also unlikely to call a 1/2 pot bet with anything in his range that folds to the shove. Shove and get full value when he has the hearts but expect him to fold to ANY bet a decent amount of the time.
 
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AtownDanger

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I would have bet pot and hope for a call at the least. In my opinion a check or a shove are both drastic plays, in this situation you want to make a bet he is committed to at least call and if he has a good enough hand to even raise...but shoving makes no sense as does checking....if he has a flush and you bet say half the pot..... they are gonna pay you off at the least if they have a hand and if not who cares because even if you shoved you were not getting called either...at least a callable bet you have a chance to make some money on it !!!!!
 
ChuckTs

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I'm surprised everyone's dismissing checking so quickly.

Villain's turn raise is repping monsters (hearts, sets, 2 pair), semibluffs (KQ, Ahx, 45 etc), and the rare pure bluff.

Monsters get their money in regardless, so it's irrelevant how we play against them. Semibluffs never call our donk, but bet when checked to some % of the time, as do bluffs.

So unless villain is doing this as a showdown play with QQ then checking back river, I don't see how donking can be better than c/raising.

If we have 33/TT here I don't hate leading given we can now add more Jx hands to his range that actually check back river but may call a bet, but otherwise I think CRAI is just far better.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I'm surprised everyone's dismissing checking so quickly.

Villain's turn raise is repping monsters (hearts, sets, 2 pair), semibluffs (KQ, Ahx, 45 etc), and the rare pure bluff.

Monsters get their money in regardless, so it's irrelevant how we play against them. Semibluffs never call our donk, but bet when checked to some % of the time, as do bluffs.

So unless villain is doing this as a showdown play with QQ then checking back river, I don't see how donking can be better than c/raising.

If we have 33/TT here I don't hate leading given we can now add more Jx hands to his range that actually check back river but may call a bet, but otherwise I think CRAI is just far better.

I like your thinking as usual Chuck, but I have a few issues / misunderstandings with it.

1) You say monsters get their money in regardless - what about a small-ish 98h or 87h flush, now that I called his turn raise and the board is paired he might check back a lot. I mean, this guy is really passive, he even flats AA to a non-nit (me). I am not sure at all about this, it's just an idea that makes sense to me at this point.

2) Because he is passive I don't really see semi/bluffs in his range. But I guess they have to be or else it means he folded a flush on the river which is really unlikely for 20nl...
 
ChuckTs

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PF aggression or lack thereof does not necessarily correlate with their postflop play. Usually it does, but not always. What him flatting AA tells me is that he likes to trap. If he likes to trap, I tend to think he likes to go for value later in the hand - ie if he has a flush, he probably goes for value when you show interest.

About point 1), you may be right that he checks those back. I do see it from time to time, but have a hard time believing he really does it more often than not.

Your point 2) may be valid, but all that does is weight his range towards monsters more, which again I believe he bets most of the time.

Going on your assumption that he doesn't raise the turn with the {QQ+, 33, TT, AJ-QJ, semibluffs} part of his range, it means that his range is mostly flushes on the river. If he's there with a full house he NEVER checks back.

Then it comes down to this: the debate of whether to donk or c/r river depends on how likely he is to bet those flushes on the river himself, how likely he is to pay off a c/r, and we weight those two probabilities vs how likely he is to pay off various river donks (as well as factor in how likely he is to shove over a small donk, if that's your choice).

I don't think donking river is bad - we have the nuts and are going for value against a fish.
 
forsakenone

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i would bet like 10. at this level most people seem to be tight-passive postflop so he is capable of checking QQ or a smallish flush or 2 pair.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Then it comes down to this: the debate of whether to donk or c/r river depends on how likely he is to bet those flushes on the river himself, how likely he is to pay off a c/r, and we weight those two probabilities vs how likely he is to pay off various river donks (as well as factor in how likely he is to shove over a small donk, if that's your choice).

I don't think donking river is bad - we have the nuts and are going for value against a fish.

I guess what all this means is it's a gray area and it's impossible to know the best line without more reads - sometimes he will check back what he would call with, sometimes he will fold what he would bet/call with. So now I can stop worrying about it :D

To the guy that said bet 10, if I bet nothing less than a shove makes sense, really.
 
ChuckTs

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Yeah it's basically up to you and your reads of unknowns at your player pool.
 
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