$20 NLHE 6-max: Raise turn for stacks or check for pot control ?

R

razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/18/1.8

IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $20.74 (103.7 bb)
BB: $28.31 (141.6 bb)
UTG: $23.24 (116.2 bb)
MP: $20.68 (103.4 bb)
CO: $6.51 (32.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $20.42 (102.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A
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A
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UTG raises to $0.60, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.80, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.20

Flop: ($3.90) 6
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7
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4
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(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.20, UTG calls $2.20

Turn: ($8.30) 5
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(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($8.30) 6
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(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.81, UTG calls $5.81

Results: $19.92 pot ($1.32 rake)
Final Board: 6
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7
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4
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5
spade4.gif
6
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He almost never has a set when he check calls the flop. He will check raise a set on this board 90% of the time. I am putting him on 88-AA and AK.
On the turn i think i am only beat here with 6 combos of 88 but we beat so much more and if was just that i would bet and try to play for stacks here 100% of the time.
The thing is 5 on the turn is killing the action and i dont know if he calls 3 streets with 99-QQ.
I did show up with some bluffs before but there is not much bluffs i could have when i bet the turn. Maybe T9s.
Do i still go for a bet regardless or is this the optimal play ?
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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We have talked about this spot often in this forum and you should bet the turn for value and keep betting the river as well until a raise indicates you are beaten.
In a 3bet pot you will be up against TT-KK most of the time not betting for value is a mistake.
FLOP 66-75% pot, same on turn. If the board is really dynamic then you can check call/fold but I still prefer 55-60% folding to a river raise.

I suggest you get an equity calculator open type in your AA versus a standard 3bet calling range stick in that runout and I'm pretty sure you will see you are still between 65-75% favourite on the turn.
 
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razzor94

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Yeah you are right i was just worried he might fold 99-JJ or even QQ when i go 3bet-bet-bet. No doubt i am ahead on the turn against his range. Just tried to get more value overall but i think i should probably raise here cause most players wont fold an overpair on that board.
Surely a leak and its costing me some $$$
 
Ducky7

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I think check back the turn is fine
Especially when you get to higher stakes where people will try attack these types of boards
With the hands you get called by like 99 TT JJ etc, they most likely arent calling 2 streets anyway so checking turn allows us to pick off some extra bluffs and get the value from those hands on the river
WP :)
 
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razzor94

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I think check back the turn is fine
Especially when you get to higher stakes where people will try attack these types of boards
With the hands you get called by like 99 TT JJ etc, they most likely arent calling 2 streets anyway so checking turn allows us to pick off some extra bluffs and get the value from those hands on the river
WP :)

Its probably player dependent. When i think about it against this player i should have probably raised 2/3 flop 2/3 turn shove the riv. And now that i think about it i would most likely try and get all the money in on the turn with a jam.
He might or might not call 3 streets of value with 99-JJ but shoving on the turn makes my hand polarized and i keep him from seeing an overcard on the river that might scare him. I mean if he was floating something like AK AQ i am not going to get anymore money anyways.
 
Ducky7

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Its probably player dependent. When i think about it against this player i should have probably raised 2/3 flop 2/3 turn shove the riv. And now that i think about it i would most likely try and get all the money in on the turn with a jam.
He might or might not call 3 streets of value with 99-JJ but shoving on the turn makes my hand polarized and i keep him from seeing an overcard on the river that might scare him. I mean if he was floating something like AK AQ i am not going to get anymore money anyways.

By checking turn you can get those exact hands to bluff and therefore get a lot more money from him
Jamming turn doesnt really make much since he can have better and would have to super hero call when we dont have many bluffs
I think checking this turn in general is better
Obv if the guy is bad we can bet 3
 
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razzor94

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By checking turn you can get those exact hands to bluff and therefore get a lot more money from him
Jamming turn doesnt really make much since he can have better and would have to super hero call when we dont have many bluffs
I think checking this turn in general is better
Obv if the guy is bad we can bet 3

If we put him on a range of 88-AA and AK on the turn and i jam i am not bluffing but i am doing it with all my 99-AA.
He might think of this jam as weak because why would i jam KK and AA or the nuts when there is not that much scary rivers for me?
Its just looking like 99-JJ trying to get him off of his overcards.
Also when he calls and we get to SD next time i bet 2/3 the pot or check in this situation he might think of my play as weak and maybe he does bluff with AK.
Am not saying its optimal and i shouldnt do it every time but frequently against a weak regular or even a good one its probably good to get a little creative in these spots.
And i dont think he ever bluffs AK if we check the turn. There are no good cards for him unless its a K or A and if they dont come he might even think its good on the riv.
So i think he check folds all non made hands on the turn and river when we bet.
 
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