$20 NLHE 6-max: Profitable bluff?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/16/0.3

I recently read an article on blockers and decided to try to put some of the concepts to practice. Let me know if you guys think my thought process behind this is sound.

Hand#3022011429000184 - Calgary (6-Max) 11429 -- $0.10/$0.20 NL Hold'em -- 2012/07/13 - 21:56:43
Dealer: Seat 2
Seat 1: evohkt ($25.35 in chips)
Seat 2: BiWinning88 ($18.03 in chips)
Seat 3: Camplol ($20.10 in chips)
Seat 8: gimmecards22 ($60.13 in chips)
Seat 9: DJKORE ($21.58 in chips)
Seat 10: Comeupkid23 ($18.49 in chips)
Camplol: posts small blind $0.10
gimmecards22: posts big blind $0.20
Dealt to BiWinning88 [Ac,6d]
DJKORE: raises to $0.70
evohkt: folds
BiWinning88: raises to $2
Camplol: folds
gimmecards22: folds
DJKORE: calls $1.30
*** FLOP *** [3c,8c,8d]
DJKORE: checks
....

With a PFR of 16%, I'm assuming any broadway and pocket pair except QT and JT. So 22-AA is 72 combos with 3 combos of AA and 66, AT+ is 48, KT+ is 48, and QJ is 16. With a 3 bet, I'm assuming a fold of anything except JJ+ and AK. Of the 184 possible combos, I'm guessing I'm folding out all but 33. So with a raise from $0.70 to $2.00, this should be +EV by $0.22 by itself.

The flop misses me. Assuming I can fold out the 12 AK combos of the 33 hands left, I should still be +EV by $0.20 with a 1/2 sized pot bet. However, this is a small amount compared to the bet size I have to make, so I think I probably shouldn't bet this flop at all.

If an ace had come up on the flop, then I can fold out 18 cards in his range, with the second ace reducing his AA/AK combos, and a 2/3 pot bet will be +EV by about $1.90. If the villain raises, I fold. If he calls, I just try to check to show down and will fold at any bet unless I make a backdoor flush.

Does this seem like a reasonable play in general?

Any move like the one you're making is entirely villain dependant. Imo you should not take a stab at it like you did without checking his fold stats first. In this case, line looks very spewy vs this villain.

Vs the right villain, I like the thought process, but a few things. Most villains don't flat your 3bet with aa, kk (qq?), rule them out. Maybe include TT or 99, but again, villain dependent (in this case where he just doesn't fold, range is much wider).

Ye didn't mention villain position, UTG. Changes range and profitability of your 3bet.

Also, giving up on the flop is ok a lot of the time, but is a 2nd barrel profitable vs a range that shouldn't include kk, aa? Can you successfully rep aa or kk vs this villain? (Probably not this villain. But a question to ask if you try again)

His PFR is 16%, but what is it from UTG? I'm guessing <8% ESP if this is a positionally aware opponent. So you really shouldn't be 3b bluffing this spot in the first place. His continuing range is going to be REALLY strong, ESP cos you've shown a ton of strength by 3bing an UTG raise. I think poker play is right, his range here is like 99, TT, JJ, QQ, maybe AK. AA or KK 4bets you so you can rule these out.
If he's not folding 99-QQ to you pre, he's not folding an overpair post. For this reason as played you should shut down here imo

Don't bluff people with strong ranges.

Just fold pre.

Fold pre