$20 NLHE 6-max: Profitable bluff?
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/16/0.3
I recently read an article on blockers and decided to try to put some of the concepts to practice. Let me know if you guys think my thought process behind this is sound.
Hand#3022011429000184 - Calgary (6-Max) 11429 -- $0.10/$0.20 NL Hold'em -- 2012/07/13 - 21:56:43
Dealer: Seat 2
Seat 1: evohkt ($25.35 in chips)
Seat 2: BiWinning88 ($18.03 in chips)
Seat 3: Camplol ($20.10 in chips)
Seat 8: gimmecards22 ($60.13 in chips)
Seat 9: DJKORE ($21.58 in chips)
Seat 10: Comeupkid23 ($18.49 in chips)
Camplol: posts small blind $0.10
gimmecards22: posts big blind $0.20
Dealt to BiWinning88 [Ac,6d]
DJKORE: raises to $0.70
BiWinning88: raises to $2
DJKORE: calls $1.30
*** FLOP *** [3c,8c,8d]
With a PFR of 16%, I'm assuming any broadway and pocket pair except QT and JT. So 22-AA is 72 combos with 3 combos of AA and 66, AT+ is 48, KT+ is 48, and QJ is 16. With a 3 bet, I'm assuming a fold of anything except JJ+ and AK. Of the 184 possible combos, I'm guessing I'm folding out all but 33. So with a raise from $0.70 to $2.00, this should be +EV by $0.22 by itself.
The flop misses me. Assuming I can fold out the 12 AK combos of the 33 hands left, I should still be +EV by $0.20 with a 1/2 sized pot bet. However, this is a small amount compared to the bet size I have to make, so I think I probably shouldn't bet this flop at all.
If an ace had come up on the flop, then I can fold out 18 cards in his range, with the second ace reducing his AA/AK combos, and a 2/3 pot bet will be +EV by about $1.90. If the villain raises, I fold. If he calls, I just try to check to show down and will fold at any bet unless I make a backdoor flush.
Does this seem like a reasonable play in general?