$20 NLHE 6-max: Overpair facing raise from fish

J

js520

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only 12 hands on villain so no reads. I probably should have raised more pre since SB is a fish. What to do on flop?

888 Poker - $0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $19.70 (VPIP: 22.98, PFR: 17.93, 3Bet Preflop: 8.01, Hands: 810)
Hero (BTN): $23.29
SB: $20.00 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 2.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
BB: $23.15 (VPIP: 22.82, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 210)
UTG: $24.93 (VPIP: 35.78, PFR: 27.01, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 445)
MP: $20.07 (VPIP: 19.55, PFR: 15.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.28, Hands: 638)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has T:club: T:heart:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.52, SB calls $0.42, BB calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.56, 3 players) 6:heart: 7:diamond: 2:club:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.17, SB raises to $5.07, fold, Hero?
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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Easy as **** fold. If the board pairs you can stack 2 pair easy, but he doesn't even have enough money behind for you to imply your odds.
 
Jblocher1

Jblocher1

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I don't know if this is as easy as Aleksei is making it out to be. I think it's still a fold because he can easily have a set here. But nowhere near an insta- fold. I might tank a little here and then fold. But I read set in this situation. Lay it down
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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I don't know if this is as easy as Aleksei is making it out to be. I think it's still a fold because he can easily have a set here.
k so like, whatever hand he has is made, which has you down to at most 7 outs. When a station raises flop, he doesn't have A7 here.

As for whether it's actually easy, if your play is close to balance it honestly should be. I myself had to run the numbers and confirm that in fact I couldn't imply my odds there, but that's because I hate folding any spot. :p
 
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Jblocher1

Jblocher1

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So you are reading set also. That's not just me?
 
Aleksei

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So you are reading set also. That's not just me?
Yeah. My read is 2p or better. Usually half 2p, but you never know the idiot could have 72/62s here because OMG THEY WERE SOOOOOOOOTED.
 
Jblocher1

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Yeah. My read is 2p or better. Usually half 2p, but you never know the idiot could have 72/62s here because OMG THEY WERE SOOOOOOOOTED.

A lot of truth to that lol. I always enjoy reading your posts. So educational. U always seem to have the math to back up your opinion
 
Aleksei

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We have 12 hands on villain so I don't know where you've got the information that he's a station
Honestly I just use the stats as laid usually, because stats not being normalized is just variance -- for every person you find running a heater, you'll find one running terrible. Over an infinite number of samples on an infinite number of villains, stats even out to meaning the exact same.
 
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