€20 NLHE 6-max: Ok to shove with air?

SPCotter

SPCotter

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€20 NL HE 6-max: Ok to shove with air?

Villain is 17/13, 213 hands, given stack sizes and villains tendencies (3bet is 8% over 62) I don't think he's set mining after I raise the limped pot to €1.10, he's likely to be 3betting overpairs and big aces pre, my read is that he's trying it on, and if not he can still fold a marginal holding - I stick with it and villain folds. This was my thought line at the time.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
SB ($3.80)
BB ($20.75)
UTG ($34.72)
UTG+1 ($37.50)
CO ($7.38)
Hero ($25.02)

Dealt to Hero 8 A

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, BB calls $0.90, fold, CO calls $0.90

FLOP ($3.60) 3 T 7

BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.40, BB raises to $5.20, CO folds, Hero raises to $23.92 (AI), BB folds

Hero wins $13.30

Given the money villain has invested into the pot, position etc. upon reflection of my session, I'm not entirely sure that the shove gets through enough times for it to be profitable, the other thing that may influence his decision to call pre from the big blind is that CO is a 54/10 fish who would be expected to cold call pre the majority of the time. I also think he may be showing up with a set more often than I had originally thought.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Problem is you're risking 24 to win like 10. Your bluff has to work a crazy often amount of the time, and he's raising with the CO still yet to act.

If villain doesn't fold to c-bets, then I think the adjustment here is just not to c-bet, and to open preflop tighter.
 
Wes747

Wes747

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Yeah c9 pretty much has it down. You won't get him to fold enough times for this to be profitable unless he folds every time he gets aggression thrown back at him.
 
SPCotter

SPCotter

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Cheers guys, pretty much what I was thinking
 
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