€20 NLHE 6-max: Can I fold this and when?

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 194.1 BB (VPIP: 25.16, PFR: 17.93, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, hands: 1,482)
BTN: 218.4 BB (VPIP: 36.11, PFR: 26.94, 3Bet Preflop: 12.20, Hands: 369)
SB: 112.95 BB (VPIP: 22.41, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.86, Hands: 477)
BB: 120.35 BB (VPIP: 18.02, PFR: 15.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.98, Hands: 639)
Hero (UTG): 189.35 BB
MP: 60 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:spade: Q:diamond:

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (11 BB, 4 players) J:spade: Q:heart: 8:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 7.7 BB, CO calls 7.7 BB, BTN calls 7.7 BB, SB raises to 49.5 BB, Hero calls 41.8 BB, CO raises to 191.6 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 60.95 BB, Hero

This is a really tricky scenario. First I want to ask can we fold to the SB 2 bet since its so humongous that if he has T9 then we are not getting the right price to call. But then my hand was too good so I called anyways and then the CO massive shove. Here is the speed of the hand,

The CO didn't tank before calling my C bet, the SB insta 2 bet and the CO insta 3 bet shove. Now the SB actually tanked which means he may not have T9 after all since why would he tank now as the pot has already become huge. I really felt the CO has T9 doesn't really seem like a player to shove 200 BB without a monster. But then why doesn't he raise my C bet on such a wet board?

Now I would like to know what to do if SB didn't actually call? Fold?
But now that the SB has called we are priced in to play this? But surely some of our FH outs are already compromised here.

NICE!!!!!....from my math, You will be getting about 2.7 to 1 pot odds to call the shove. That's right on the edge of what you would like to be getting. (With a set, you will improve to beat the straight a hair over 30% of the time.) So you want to be getting at least 2.2 to 1. (I like 2.5+). So yes you are getting enough to call. Those numbers also assume that your opponent already has the made straight. With all of the action it seems likely that one of them already does have it. However, I can see the CO making this play with a smaller set trying to get you to lay down a draw. Bottom line.......I think you need to call here with top set.
Now, if the SB did not move all in, you would only be getting about 2.2 to 1 which is RIGHT AT the limit. So I think that becomes more about a read and gut feeling. Overall I think that situation is mostly break even so it is up to you.

My math may be off SLIGHTLY....but its close enough to give u the right idea. Good Luck at the tables.

O yea...Let me know what u did and how it turned out. lol.

wow nice pot..I would call too.

Interesting hand...

If I were the SB with a lower set either JJ or 88 (but 88 makes more sense preflop) or AsTs or KsTs I would certainly check raise large on this flop and have to tank on the CO shove, so the SB having a set of 88 and possibly a good draw makes perfect sense.
But you are right it makes little sense that the CO just calls the flop bet with T9 or a set of JJJ unless he just wanted to keep you in and firing...
It does look that the SB may just fold and the CO doesn't want to scare you away with a raise on the flop. You are utg and likely to fire a 2nd barrel with your premium pair.
The flop call by the CO also creates enough doubt for me to consider the chance that the CO may also have the good semi bluff draw.
Once you call the SB flop raise the CO probably doesn't put you on QQ. If the CO is capable of shoving with a set of jacks then you must obviously call..and as soon as there is sniff of the possibility of a shove by a semi bluff with something like AT or KT of spades then I call.

I called. SB showed QJ and CO showed A6ss(lol). I suppose the CO really didn't anticipate me calling all my chips after I "only" called the SB raise. I wonder what he does if I had raised the SB.

And yess I won the hand. 😀😀

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I think a call is must. he can go for all in with another set (JJ, 88), maybe JA / QA with running for the flush. maybe AA, KK. maybe a 2 pairs. and even if he has a straight on the flop, you have 7 outs to get Full house / Quads on the turn and 10 outs on the river.
You are favorite almost always.

Have to call here... You have the top set and even against straight you still have enough implied odds

Easy call and you know it

thatgreekdude said:

Easy call and you know it

Click to expand...

No seriously it wasn't easy for me. But I guess it gives me a lesson that one shouldn't be thinking about folding top set on the flop because there are just so many weaker hands that could be playing aggressive.

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Yea you are right. There are very few times that you should be folding top set on the flop. Like we talked about above, EVEN IF...he already has the straight or flush, you are not in terrible shape. Almost always the right move when you are getting almost 3 to 1......Good Luck and glad the hand turned out well for you.

With very strong hand, very nice draw and superb implied odds, no hesitation and simply put all your chips at the middle.

When CAN we fold top set? 300bb or 400bb deep?

It's always a guessing game. Against a made straight, there's likely to be a two pairs which are killing our full house outs. I always end up stacking off.

But I might hero fold bottom set in this spot. It's very easy to put someone on two pair, and if you're up against a made straight, then you're drawing dead as the board pairing will give someone the better full house, unless you hit a running turn and river like 6 and 6. Hate these spots, but they really test your mettle as a poker player.

With 88s I'd be worried about being in a massive reverse-implied situation. Like flopping middle pair + flush draw vs. 2 opponents. You have a strong hand, but you're drawing dead because someone has top two pair and someone has a higher flush draw.

But having top set here makes the decision a lot easier.

I am never entirely thrilled about flopping top set on a monotone flop. If I ever fold top set OTF I think it will be on a monotone board and especially if its connected. On a 2 tone board one should probably never fold top set.