$20 NLHE 6-max: Big draw, call big turn bet?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/13/37

Villains stats are over 160 hands so he's pretty fishy. His cbet % is 67%. I do have one note on him which says "x/c flop with flush draw, turn and river are blanks and he donks 3/4 psb then 1/2 psb"

888 Poker - $0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $54.14
SB: $28.02 (VPIP: 22.57, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 358)
BB: $19.70 (VPIP: 22.82, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 210)
UTG: $36.80 (VPIP: 30.39, PFR: 14.92, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 186)
CO: $25.88 (VPIP: 19.55, PFR: 15.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.28, Hands: 638)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has T:diamond: A:diamond:

UTG raises to $0.60, fold, Hero calls $0.60, fold, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.90, 3 players) 2:diamond: J:heart: Q:diamond:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, fold, UTG raises to $5.50, Hero calls $4.30

Turn: ($12.90, 2 players) 4:heart:
UTG bets $9.67, Hero?

(Effective stacks on river would be 21.03)

So on the turn he bets 9.67 into 12.90 so we have to call 9.67 to win 22.57 which is 2.33-1. We have 12 or potentially only 10 outs if villain has a set. If villain doesn't have a set we have 24% equity roughly so we would need the pot to offer us 3.17-1 for a break even call which would mean we would need him to call a bet of about 8 on the river to make it break even. So basically would need him to shove or call a shove 38% of the time.

If he has a set we have about 20% equity so would need the pot to offer us odds of 4-1 so we would need to make about 16 on the river to make it a break even call. So would need him to shove or call a shove about 76% of the time.

Sorry to bore you with that maths, basically just checking I've got it right?

Lay it down. Don't have odds to call. U won't hit most of the time and then u commited most of your stack with ace high, and when he jams the river, which it's likely he will u will be forced to fold and lose more than u had to. Save yourself the money and lay down the turn. Personally for me, when I flop a flush draw, I am usually only willing to see the turn and if I miss, I fold to a raise. In order to call a turn bet I need incredible pot odds, like 5:1 on a call for me to see the river. Most of the time though I kick it in on the turn so definite fold in this spot for me.

just get it in on flop. as played call

baudib1 said:

just get it in on flop. as played call

Click to expand...

for almost 200bb?

Your math is roughly correct, but he's calling jam or jamming roughly 100% of the time. And you forgot to factor in added value from him folding if he doesn't.

So, I'd peel.