$20 NLHE 6-max: Big draw, call big turn bet?
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):
Villains stats are over 160 hands so he's pretty fishy. His cbet % is 67%. I do have one note on him which says "x/c flop with flush draw, turn and river are blanks and he donks 3/4 psb then 1/2 psb"
888 Poker - $0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): $54.14
SB: $28.02 (VPIP: 22.57, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 358)
BB: $19.70 (VPIP: 22.82, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 210)
UTG: $36.80 (VPIP: 30.39, PFR: 14.92, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 186)
CO: $25.88 (VPIP: 19.55, PFR: 15.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.28, Hands: 638)
SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero
UTG raises to $0.60
calls $0.60, fold
, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.90, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20
, UTG raises to $5.50
Turn: ($12.90, 2 players)
UTG bets $9.67
(Effective stacks on river would be 21.03)
So on the turn he bets 9.67 into 12.90 so we have to call 9.67 to win 22.57 which is 2.33-1. We have 12 or potentially only 10 outs if villain has a set. If villain doesn't have a set we have 24% equity roughly so we would need the pot to offer us 3.17-1 for a break even call which would mean we would need him to call a bet of about 8 on the river to make it break even. So basically would need him to shove or call a shove 38% of the time.
If he has a set we have about 20% equity so would need the pot to offer us odds
of 4-1 so we would need to make about 16 on the river to make it a break even call. So would need him to shove or call a shove about 76% of the time.
Sorry to bore you with that maths, basically just checking I've got it right?