€20 NLHE 6-max: Big draw, complicated spot

C

ComplexPlaya

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€20 NLHE 6-max: Big draw, complicated spot

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/12/5(227), raise flop 19%

BB: €20.00
UTG: €4.00
MP: €22.12
CO: €21.22
BTN: €22.96
Hero (SB): €20.73

Hero posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has 8:diamond: 6:diamond:

fold, MP calls €0.20, CO calls €0.20, fold, Hero calls €0.10, BB checks

Flop: (€0.80, 4 players) 7:spade: J:diamond: 9:diamond:
Hero bets €1.00, BB raises to €3.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to €10.10, BB calls €7.00

Turn: (€21.00, 2 players) A:club:
Hero bets €10.43 and is all-in, BB calls €9.70 and is all-in

River: (€40.40, 2 players) A:diamond:

Here I am with a big draw that's facing aggression. Since villain is BB, he can have any two cards. He is aggressive from the stats, but how much is that aggression tamed by the 2 players still to act?

So what's his range for raising my overbet on this flop? Sets - 77, as 99 and JJ raise pre. Any 2 pairs. Other monster draws like QTd, AKd, AQd, A7d. The straight, although less likely since I have an 8. What about lesser draws such as QTo, A2d-ATd, do they raise with 2 players left to act? Anything else I should add to his range?

Now his calling range, I assume includes all of the above apart from the lesser draws I'm not even sure he raises the flop with.

What about the turn, do I gaine some FE and should I shove? i'm either shoving or c/c there, so I think it's the right play? Or maybe c/c the turn and c/f river if I miss is better...? Argh, so many questions!
 
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forsakenone

forsakenone

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i would shove the flop really. i hate it when i miss the turn and i am out of position in this spot.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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i would shove the flop really. i hate it when i miss the turn and i am out of position in this spot.


The problem with shoving the flop is how little equity we have when called. I mean it's either a set or a better FD to call that big of an overbet.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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The problem with shoving the flop is how little equity we have when called. I mean it's either a set or a better FD to call that big of an overbet.
Doesn't matter, we've still got 40% equity. And that's only if he calls with big draws & two pair or better. There's usually some pair+draw stuff in his range.


Out of position, I'm not sure if we can profitably draw at the bottom end of a straight and a small flush. But we have too much equity to fold. So I'd just cram it in I think. Only other option is calling flop raise, calling the turn, and then donking when we hit. And when we donk shove a diamond/ten, I'm not sure how many calls we're getting.
 
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