$20 NLHE 6-max: Awkward River Shove

$20 NL HE 6-max: Awkward River Shove

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/23/1.8

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
Hero ($29.34)
BB ($30.81)
UTG ($29.50)
CO ($22.24)
BTN ($53.18)

Dealt to Hero T:diamond: 9:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

FLOP ($1.20) 9:heart: K:diamond: Q:spade:

Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

TURN ($2.60) 9:heart: K:diamond: Q:spade: J:heart:

Hero bets $1.95, BB raises to $6.10, Hero calls $4.15

RIVER ($14.80) 9:heart: K:diamond: Q:spade: J:heart: Q:club:

Hero checks, BB bets $23.41 (AI)

Villain has a tendency to float flops, I've seen him do it with 78s complete air no draw on flop and then get checked down after he hit showdown value with an 8 on the turn (clearly raising without hitting in previous hand), fold to flop cbet is 25% and he is slightly more aggressive on the turn. Does villain have a wide enough range to call a shove here on the river?

The river is a tough spot but seeing he likes to float and is aggressive player I would call more often then not. I mean he could have set and reraised the turn but I think your ahead alot more often then not.

Fold.

Villain is either bluffing or over playing a T or has us beat.
I don't see this being a bluff often enough to help us much so we're only calling for a split.

I would have to say that calling is a little more than slightly plus EV in the situation you have described. there is no definite answer but i would be willing to put him on a set or two pair not the T that often and rarely beat.

You don't expect most people to check back or bet smaller with trips and two pair here?
Plus, the turn raise with any of those hands is incredibly fishy.

If you didn't flat the turn, you wouldn't have to worry about it at all

Mase31683 said:

If you didn't flat the turn, you wouldn't have to worry about it at all

Click to expand...

This.

You completed a non-nut draw and you're hand can no longer improve (except to A high).

Get your stack in on the turn (or at least raise).

Two pair involving a Q, a set, etc could be ahead of you, where they were clearly behind when you opted to just call.

Now you could be behind, or folding your straight to trips.

Hmmzzz... I called, villain shows AT for broadway

I flat the raise on the turn, purely because of the read on my opponent, often I would be raising, but I felt I could extract more value on the river by flatting the turn and inducing another bet, I figured it would be unlikely he'd be holding the then nuts on the turn. I think he's doing similar with weaker holdings and air a fair share - on the turn at least. I think I should have found a fold on the river though, especially as villain overbets.

Sure looked like villain had a ten, and he probably plays other tens similarly. Bad luck at the result.