$20 NLHE 6-max: AA of flop vs fishy guy.

Dochouse13 35 hands, playing 50/24/2.8

Generally playing bad. my note sais: donk's with tpgk in 3 more plrs, pot opened by me preflop. on turn he gets minraised and calls with tpgk, c/c riv.

and somehow the other player had second pair.


$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
888
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Dochouse13 ($28.66)
UTG+1 OzBoats ($9.70)
CO forsakenone ($21.43)
BTN pelczi_wp ($28.43)
SB airjibe12 ($5.18)
BB Via4Gra ($20)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) forsakenone is CO A:club: A:heart:
Dochouse13 raises to $0.80, 1 fold, forsakenone raises to $2.40, 3 folds, Dochouse13 calls $1.60

Flop: 9:spade: K:heart: J:diamond: ($5.10, 2 players)
Dochouse13 checks, forsakenone bets $3.82, Dochouse13 raises to $8.28, forsakenone ??

Ach that flop is shit but villains stats are wild.
KJ/J9/QT/K9/99/JJ is a lot to worry about.

Your read on his donking with toppair isn't very promising either.
Assuming he never fold to a shove we'd be putting in $15.20 to win $28 so we need ~35% equity.

I'm reluctantly stacking, I think most villains don't checkraise pairs and gutshots due to their showdown value but this guy might, thing is were not very converged. If we get KQ and KT in there unnegated we have the equity needed and they make up a third of his pair/gutshot hands although non toppair ones may not stack.


Target: 35%

Worst case scenario
Board: Kh Jd 9s

Hand 0: 18.337% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 81.663% { KJs, K9s, QTs, J9s, KJo, K9o, QTo, J9o }


Me being overly hopeful?
Board: Kh Jd 9s

Hand 0: 35.524% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 64.476% { KJs+, K9s, QTs, J9s+, KJo+, K9o, QTo, J9o+ }


It's really close, I wouldn't worry yourself about what you chose to do as it's going to be fairly EV neutral in the long run imo.

Whoops I forgot to add the sets in to my stoving. I cba typing them out again but take 2% of our equity in each case.

I think betting the flop is a mistake. You can extract tons of value and manipulate your opponent by checking the flop and confusing them. After you bet probably call the check raise and fold to a turn bet. The turn bet will narrow the range more than a wild flop raise alot of the time here. You could fold to the check raise but its tough to say.

sixpeppers said:

I think betting the flop is a mistake. You can extract tons of value and manipulate your opponent by checking the flop and confusing them. After you bet probably call the check raise and fold to a turn bet. The turn bet will narrow the range more than a wild flop raise alot of the time here. You could fold to the check raise but its tough to say.

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Not betting this flop seems almost criminal to me.Most of his range has to be big broad way cards to flat the 3bet.
As for the flop i prob fold.I just don't think most villains here would raise hands like AQ,(which are hardly any combo's left for)or KQ.

JOEBOB69 said:

Not betting this flop seems almost criminal to me.Most of his range has to be big broad way cards to flat the 3bet.

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Ditto, fish need to be value towned. Checking won't confuse him at all as he's likely not even thinking about our range. Also most the broadways we beat have plenty of cards to catch on the turn should we let them see it for free.

I think you are underestimating the power of the 3bet multi barrel. Do you think that you are getting called down 3 streets by KQ here? AJ? Not only are there lower combos of AJ AK due to the fact you have AA, but those are only two hands out of the opponents entire range that we get equity from, in the meantime there are at least equal combos of hands that are equity favorites versus us. Betting the flop is most definetely +EV but I think checking and betting turn river when checked to, or inducing a bluff, is better. And yes sometimes the board will runout unfavorably with a t or Q turn and you may have to fold to a large bet but you probably aren't going to get bluffed in that spot anyways as you have position and even a bad opponent prolly "puts you on" high cards.

forsakenone said:

Dochouse13 35 hands, playing 50/24/2.8

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sixpeppers said:

Do you think that you are getting called down 3 streets by KQ here?

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Yes

sixpeppers said:

I think you are underestimating the power of the 3bet multi barrel. Do you think that you are getting called down 3 streets by KQ here? AJ? Not only are there lower combos of AJ AK due to the fact you have AA, but those are only two hands out of the opponents entire range that we get equity from, in the meantime there are at least equal combos of hands that are equity favorites versus us. Betting the flop is most definetely +EV but I think checking and betting turn river when checked to, or inducing a bluff, is better. And yes sometimes the board will runout unfavorably with a t or Q turn and you may have to fold to a large bet but you probably aren't going to get bluffed in that spot anyways as you have position and even a bad opponent prolly "puts you on" high cards.

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Main reason I don't like this is these sort of boards our value comes from the flop and turn.
Almost every pair is going to have some straight outs. Fish will snap even the weakest pairs like T9 on the turn and flop, once the river bricks they may well find a fold unless we've managed to pile half their stack into the pot whilst they chased their precious gutshot.

We've also no reason to believe villain will bluff us on this co-ordinated flop and plenty of reason to believe he calls too much.
Not to mention when most the draws come with pairs they're not going to checkback more and bluff less.

Deco said:

Yes

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Preflop stats mean absolutely nothing here. Betting three streets or two is a pretty close decision and I think turn river would be fine, or even check calling three streets.

sixpeppers said:

Preflop stats mean absolutely nothing here. Betting three streets or two is a pretty close decision and I think turn river would be fine, or even check calling three streets.

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Of course they do!
We should value town the players with huge vpips because they are fish! Cmon do you really know any 80vpips who are great players postflop!

Deco said:

Of course they do!
We should value town the players with huge vpips because they are fish! Cmon do you really know any 80vpips who are great players postflop!

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Yeah Phil Ivey when he is very drunk.