$20 NLHE 6-max: A-high flush - full house likely?

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watchtowel

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raise on the river usually seems quite strong so I think the jack hit him. just didn't know how well.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (3 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
Button ($8.01)
Hero (SB) ($16.47)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10
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, A
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1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 5
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, 6
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, 4
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($0.60) J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

River: ($1.40) J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises to $2, Hero ?
 
B

BigThingWithHolesInIt

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I jam. FH is possible but not likely imo.
Slowplaying a set on this flop is very dangerous. I think it's much more likely he has a worse flush or Jx. They pay us off a lot of the time.
I hope you didn't consider folding!
 
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watchtowel

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Sorry this was 10nl not 20nl. nah not folding but questioned whether raising or calling was better calling. I suspected raising would have made him shove.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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+1 to bigthing oh and cbet flop
 
danprince10

danprince10

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I would have raised, as the man said it's much more likely he has a worse flush or Jx. What did he end up having?
 
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watchtowel

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Yea well you pretty much thought the same thing after the hand so I'll say what he had. I called and he showed J10. So not happy about how I played it, but you live and learn! I only thought afterwards that only sets turned full house were likely and he wouldn't have j4-j6 lol.
 
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Aldito

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Yeah Jx hands are very unlikely here. A fh is much more likely on a board with a 9/T/Q/K. I definitely jam here.
 
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watchtowel

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Think he means its not likely he would have like J5 but if there was like JJKQ3 on board I should be concerned about KJ, QJ as well as QQ or 33 etc.
 
forsakenone

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AF only 1, I would consider just calling on the river. and you should cbet the flop.
 
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Aldito

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Think he means its not likely he would have like J5 but if there was like JJKQ3 on board I should be concerned about KJ, QJ as well as QQ or 33 etc.

+1. I mean a guy with these stats doesn't show up with J6/J5/J4 very often...
 
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baudib1

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Because you didn't bet the flop I'd shove the river, but really, we should bet the flop all the time.

If you had bet the flop and he called or raised, his range for raising river would be much stronger.
 
Stu_Ungar

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1. Cbet the flop you have tne nyt FD + 2 overcards, you are value betting here.

2.) Bet the turn as big as you can you

3.) Its more likely he has something like AJ than J5 for 2 reasons

1.) there are very few combos of J5 in his range, if they are there then its J5s (4 combos) compared to AJ (16 combos)
2.) The flop has the Jd and Jh so he cant have j5d or j5h so thats 2combos of J5s same goes for J4 and J6 giing a total of 6 combos. AJ with 2 jacks out has 8 combos. KJ QJ are all in his calling range preflop so thats 24combos you beat vs 6 you loose to.

Sets of 66/44/55 on the flop are unlikely as its a very drawy flop, you would be expecting him to raise not to slowplay, Again on the turn, although you just made a flush its more likely you are drawing to a flush than made a flush so again he should raise a set here.. plus you can be value betting AJ yourself.

So im just shoving the river, occasionally he will show up with a FH but more often than not he shows up with a big jack or folds as he was making some kind of silly bluff.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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AF only 1, I would consider just calling on the river. and you should cbet the flop.

The way the hand has played out, trip jacks look like the nuts and lower made flushes look like the nuts.

When he raises here, he has a hand, but that dosent mean it has to beat the nut flush.

If the question were "is it possible to be against a FH" then the answer is yes.. almost anything is possible.

The poker question is whats the most profitable way to play this hand and the answer to that culminates in getting your whole stack in the middle by the river.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Yea well you pretty much thought the same thing after the hand so I'll say what he had. I called and he showed J10. So not happy about how I played it, but you live and learn! I only thought afterwards that only sets turned full house were likely and he wouldn't have j4-j6 lol.

Only just read this! JT. He would have called a shove. HEe would have tanked, but he is a caller. He should have raised JT on the turn for value against hands that have just picked up a FD.

His turn call is really bad and shows he cant hand read. You have the nut flush here (which kind of makes the handreading part less easy to understand) but when you dont c-bet the flop) you are either giving up or checking back a hand with weak SD equity. When you lead the turn, you could have a made flush or have a FD. If he calls, then being as you didnt bet the flop you are far more likely to have a FD than a made flush. There is no point in calling with JT if you think your opponents range is almost exclusively made flushes, so if he thinks JT is ahead of your range then he should raise it. If you shove then he should probably fold. On that board JT is a clear raise for value on the turn. Now the river play makes no sense. You lead the river on a board with a possible made flush. He has trips. You lead, your range is missed FDs, which dont call a raise, made flushes which call a raise and trip jacks, which all of them are better than JT (plus the rivber jack makes it less likely that you hold a jack) So again he cant hand read because the river isnt a spot he can raise for value, its a call.

So the fact he cant handread means he wouldnt have thought much further than "I have trips Im not folding" So you should have shoved.
 
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