$20 NLHE 6-max: $20 NLHE 6-max: Set v terrible river OOP

Just wondering what everyones thoughts are for river decision as the flush and some straights get there.

pokerstars - $0.16 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $18.09
CO: $6.40 (VPIP: 34.85, PFR: 1.52, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, hands: 68)
BTN: $11.43 (VPIP: 61.90, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
SB: $5.60 (VPIP: 20.75, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 54)
BB: $16.00 (VPIP: 21.42, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 8.51, Hands: 642)

SB posts SB $0.08, BB posts BB $0.16, CO posts DB $0.16

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.40) Hero has 9♥ 9♦

Hero raises to $0.64, CO calls $0.48, BTN calls $0.64, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.16, 3 players) 9♣ 8♥ 4♣
Hero bets $1.28, fold, BTN calls $1.28

Turn: ($4.72, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets $2.88, BTN calls $2.88

River: ($10.48, 2 players) J♣
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.63 and is all-in,

X/F as played IMO.

I would seriously reconsider bet sizing though. I make it larger OTF + OTT against a fish like this, then his stack size is so insignificant we ship any river and can get hero'd aplenty. You could also induce him to just ship draws OTT cause you are forcing him to commit so much anyway.

I mean, we shouldn't really be sizing so that we don't care what the river card is, but his stack size is pretty awkward. If you're gonna do anything out of the ordinary we could slightly over-pot the flop since it's so wet and jam the turn. Like if we even make it $2.50 or so on the flop, the turn is roughly a pot-sized jam.

Bad stack sizes, but against fish just bet to get the most from each street. Don't worry about even river jam sizes. As played shove the river. He's a fish. He can easily have made 2 pair, hit a Jx he would stack with or even have not raised with a lower set himself. Checking the river is pretty bad.

Scourrge said:

I mean, we shouldn't really be sizing so that we don't care what the river card is, but his stack size is pretty awkward. If you're gonna do anything out of the ordinary we could slightly over-pot the flop since it's so wet and jam the turn. Like if we even make it $2.50 or so on the flop, the turn is roughly a pot-sized jam.

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Didn't mean to size in order to simplify river decisions. I meant we should size to extract the maximum obv. Easy river decision is just a bonus.

We could still shove but if we are checking then we are checking to fold.

Can we ever x/c since thats also like the nut card to bluff with?

pocketehs said:

Can we ever x/c since thats also like the nut card to bluff with?

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Cause a 60/20 is thinking on that level...

ScottishMatt said:

Didn't mean to size in order to simplify river decisions. I meant we should size to extract the maximum obv. Easy river decision is just a bonus.

We could still shove but if we are checking then we are checking to fold.

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Ah ok gotcha.

And jake, I don't think we can count on the fish bluffing enough (even on really good bluff cards) for us to take a bluff-catching line.

When we check here we almost never have better. This is like the absolute top of our checking range so it's super unlikely we X/C on this river and that makes it a great spot to bluff, esp vs his image.

Can't imagine him understanding any of that though.

ScottishMatt said:

Can't imagine him understanding any of that though.

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Basically this.

ScottishMatt said:

When we check here we almost never have better. This is like the absolute top of our checking range so it's super unlikely we X/C on this river and that makes it a great spot to bluff, esp vs his image.

Can't imagine him understanding any of that though.

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It's possible..... but... not likely that he understand that.

And you're right, if we are checking here, then we are doing it to c/f, not to c/c.