$20 NLHE 6-max: $10 NLHE 6-max: Flop two pair facing raised Cbet

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MaxiRodriguez

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/11/64

Full Tilt - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $14.66
SB: $11.35
BB: $14.03
Hero (UTG): $10.61
MP: $10.15
CO: $7.75

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has T♣ A♥

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) A♣ J♥ T♠
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BTN raises to $2.00

Only about 30ish hands on villain and no real history or notes to work with.
 
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pickup

pickup

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I think KQ would smooth call u here to get more action from the BB, but it smells like 10/J trying to protect inferior 2 pair, cause I think 10/10, or J/J would re-raise you pre...
 
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MaxiRodriguez

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Oh BB folded the HH messed up
 
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ComplexPlaya

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It's really tough to know. I think we can pretty much rule out air in a 3-way pot, so his range should be :

1) all sets - AA some of the time, but TT-JJ will not likely 3-bet especially if he sees OP as having a tight calling 3-bet range, and he doesn't want to have to fold to a 4-bet, plus he might want BB in the pot as well.

2) Any two pair - they should raise here because it's a connecting board and someone that flopped a piece of it will likely continue

3) AK, AQ, with good equity b/c of gutshots

4) KQ looking to get the money in, although calling is possible but same as point 2) ppl that got a piece of this board are likely to call a raise

If we stove it, we are flipping

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.652% 43.33% 06.33% 15870 2317.50 { AhTc }
Hand 1: 50.348% 44.02% 06.33% 16125 2317.50 { AA, JJ-TT, ATs+, JTs, ATo+, JTo }

Because you do have some fold equity (but not much) I think you should shove personally. Even if he never folds any of that range, think about it this way : you are flipping to win $0 and lose $0, but if you fold you will have lost $1 already invested in the pot. That's 10 big blinds, or what you expect to make in 200 hands if your winrate is 2.5BB/100. You don't want to have to play 200 hands to make up for 1 hand, do you?

P.S. : All this is assuming villain is a competent TAG, which is some assuming for 10NL. You can count some times villains decide to spew here with A9, Q9 or QQ-KK and that swings the EV in your favor further.
 
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