$2 PLHE Full Ring: Check raising flop with probably dominating hand against Loose Passive
Hero (BB): $2.36
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A ♥ A ♦
UTG calls $0.02, CO raises to $0.09, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.21
Flop: ($0.63) J ♥ J ♠ 7 ♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.31, Hero raises to $1.56, CO raises to $2.81, Hero calls $0.50 all in
Turn: ($4.75) 6 ♥ (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($4.75) 8 ♦ (2 players - 1 is all in)
Villain is 41 / 22 / 1.6 (79 hands) on a major heater judging by the size of stack (2$ max buyin). He is one of the reasons I picked this table since he is pretty predictable and big stack just makes it better.
Preflop he obviously has a big PP (he almost never raises preflop), I thought KK or QQ. Now, on the flop obviously JJ is possible and deadly but statistically improbable so I decided to go for it.
1. Good estimate? KK and QQ much more likely than JJ right? He wouldn't jam with JJ, these people love trapping so he would maybe even check with nuts (except A-A runners) but half pot is possible.
2. Check raise is too fancy or not? I thought if I bet into him he is likely folding, but if I check he probably bets and I raise him and go AllIn with big advantage (he has 2 outs). If I see pocket JJ then tough luck.