$2 NLHE Full Ring: What's your move on the river in this spot?

T

TCashMoney19

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/19/2

Would like some discussion about the river here, without revealing what I decide to do until after a little bit of analysis. Keep in mind villains stats and the fact that we're 4-handed. Here's the hand:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 5.77, PFR: 1.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 53)
Hero (BTN): 75 BB
SB: 90 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BB: 125.5 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:spade: 7:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: 8:club: 9:club:
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
BB bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

River: (27.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
BB bets 17 BB, Hero ...should do what?

Thanks for any input guys!
 
Keith_MM

Keith_MM

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looks like an easy fold to me.
villains stats are laggy but no 3bet yet , so you can't really imply that he's 3betting light. Even if you did imply a really wide 3bet range for him of KQ+,88+
and some suited connecters 89 upwards
88,99,JJ have a full house
TT,9T,TJ has the straight
QJs ,KQs has trips
QQ has quads
KK,AA,89s have better two pair
AK is the only hand you beat

so many combos of his potential 3bet range have you beat compared to where you are ahead that putting anymore money in the pot is likely to be a losing proposition with the sample size that you have on him.
 
Aces2w1n

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Fold pre and dont play speculative hands understacked
 
sublime_25

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Fold. You are losing to everything except a total bluff
 
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Supmargy

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I'm going to have to agree with the posts above.

The fact that his PFR is not super high, but he 3bets you should be a warning sign.
I would, as stated above, fold preflop. But that's debatable. Have you seen him bluff before?

Anyway, Keith mentioned. His hand ranges are really favorable given the community cards, so let's see what I would do on the flop, turn and river.
Flop: He checks. note that if he thinks he has the strongest hand, he should be checking. If he's not sure (you called his 3bet. I think he's not putting you on 87s), he'll also check. You check back (which is, imo, the correct play. unless you want to semibluff, but you've only got a really slim chance of hitting your straight ).
Turn: What's your goal here? You've basically got nothing, can't make the straight anymore, and he has so many winning hands in his range. I would definitly fold here.
River: You should have folded twice before, you should fold now.

This is what I think you should do. Thoughts on my logic?
 
Diegol

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Here i would like to see also the fold against steal but i think is an easy fold in the turn
 
Aces2w1n

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If it was a jack of clubs could raise river for bluff
 
Keith_MM

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why would you want to bluff this when board hits his range hard, its setting up to lose a lot of money in the long run at a stake where people call too much.
 
John A

John A

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Not sure how you can rep Tx at this point. You can't bluff, so you're either calling or folding and it's pretty close really. Really it comes down to whether he can bet Jx for value here. If you think he can, then fold, otherwise call.
 
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pietpikel

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/19/2

Would like some discussion about the river here, without revealing what I decide to do until after a little bit of analysis. Keep in mind villains stats and the fact that we're 4-handed. Here's the hand:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 5.77, PFR: 1.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
Hero (BTN): 75 BB
SB: 90 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BB: 125.5 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:spade: 7:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: 8:club: 9:club:
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
BB bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

River: (27.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
BB bets 17 BB, Hero ...should do what?

Thanks for any input guys!
The end of the hand is a definite fold, but realistically your hand is speculative, and you should try and see the flop as cheap as possible. Not putting money into pots, or getting involved with the hand postflop is prob a better strategy.

I would not have checked behind on the flop. Rather put in a test bet there, than call (the same amount) on the turn. You gain nothing by calling, but could get a fold by betting.
 
igorsad

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For me, this is an easy fold preflop. You only have 5% on a straight / flush or two pairs on the flop. And about 20% on a strong draw, which does not always close on the turn or river. Сonsequently, you will lose a lot of money on a long distance with hands like that, (in raised bank against single opponent) especially if you hit the strong draw on the flop.
Suited connectors and small pockets are good hands in multipots against several opponents and unraised pots.
 
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