$2 NLHE Full Ring: What to do with massive draws against turn raise from a nit

BB: $2.54
UTG: $2.28
Hero (UTG+1): $3.29
UTG+2: $2.03
MP1: $2.06
MP2: $1.04
CO: $1.11
BTN: $2.00
SB: $0.66

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG+1 with K ♦ Q ♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.23) 4 ♥ T ♦ 7 ♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.43) A ♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, MP2 folds

Villain unknown but probably nitty (played 1 out of 9 hands since he entered the game).

1. EP raise OK or not? The table is very passive and full of nits so if reraised 3* or so then I fold (probably to a big PP). If minraised then I call and see the flop, but should I contibet? If I check then they bet I must fold...
2. What to do if he raises lets say 3* on the turn? I have massive draws here but if they hit I don't know if I can get paid or not. I would love to call this but am really unsure is that correct or not.

5x BB raise is too big imo, I would go with 3x pf. Secondly find a table with fish on is what you want, not nits. Thirdly he has $1.00 behind him at the start of the hand, by the turn you have invested $0.40 into the pot, if he shoves it costs you $0.60 to win a pot of $1.20, 1:2 You have 9 diamonds that give you outs and 3 Jacks (3 jacks not 4 because the Jack of diamonds is counted ONCE only in our outs), making that 12/46 cards that help you win (46 possible cards, not 52 as we count the cards on the board as well). You will win it roughly 1:4 times with these outs, less than 33% of the time needed to break even. Therefore you fold. If there was two cards to come you would be getting 12 outs twice, therefore getting the correct pot odds to call. If he raised it 3x you would call as you are getting 3:1 pot odds, therefore you only have to connect 25% of the time with your outs to break even, getting the correct price to make the call.

I think I did this correctly. Hate maths. Reply if you don't understand my thought process behind this.

I am assuming your Q/K would not be live if he raised as their is an ace on the board. Also always better to miscount a few outs than add them on.

Always cbetting this beautifully dry board and definitely double barreling that awesome turn card.

Would be .60 to call a pot of 1.40 if villain shove o right (not 1.20)

I have been to told to compensate for early position by adding 2 BBs to the standard 3* bet so that amounts to 0.10, at least that is the logic I used.

Table had both fish and nits, frankly I find nits easy to play against due to sheer predictability.

Assumption behind his turn raise is that he holds the Ace and I need to hit my draws to get ahead.

Thanks for the pot odds calculation, I generally understand them but I find it hard to calculate quickly sometimes. Definitely need more practice Thanks for the help!

JOEBOB69 said:

Would be .60 to call a pot of 1.40 if villain shove o right (not 1.20)

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Ah, yes my bad.

I think a raise is definitely ok here. Since they are tight if they don't have the goods they will probably fold but getting a call is not the worst thing in the world. You have a lot of outs. I find a hand like that tough to get away from unless someone re raise shoves me all in to call

Yeah I dident read the post here but you seem to love to bloat pots for no reason 0.10c pre is to bid imo.

Well I am trying to act properly most of the time, and if not then at least there has to be a reason why I think the situation merits exception.

I have been told that standard raise is 3*BB, but with adding +1 for MP, +2 for EP, and +1 per limper. This is how I generally try to raise preflop.

Is that guideline correct or not then?

that guideline is probably fine at the lower stakes, its gonna get bad pretty quickly though raising 5x and 4x from earlier positions, its only good when there are lots of fish who will call wide and no regulars who like to 3bet or squeeze etc. I'd say you'd be better served just 4x'ing EP and 3x'ing everywhere else at these limits.

Bet flop bigger, definitely betting turn but bet bigger, i don't see a raise? You probably dont wanna be shoving over a raise if he raises the turn, but you'd just need to work out the odds you're getting and compare that to your equity (your outs) and assess whether you have any implied odds for hitting your hand.

That kind of stuff is a bit over my head right now, I do hope to get better though.

Seraphim said:

Yeah I dident read the post here but you seem to love to bloat pots for no reason 0.10c pre is to bid imo.

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My thoughts...

Why people seem to love playing in big bloated pots OOP, without premiums is beyond me.

Probably the single biggest leak I see with CC players.

LD1977 said:

1. EP raise OK or not? The table is very passive and full of nits so if reraised 3* or so then I fold (probably to a big PP). If minraised then I call and see the flop, but should I contibet? If I check then they bet I must fold...
2. What to do if he raises lets say 3* on the turn? I have massive draws here but if they hit I don't know if I can get paid or not. I would love to call this but am really unsure is that correct or not.

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1)It's too big, 4x should be the biggest you raise unopened.
2)If he raised 3x on the turn we'd be calling 40c in to a pot of $1.23 for 3 to 1 odds which is pretty much spot on what we need. Throw in the 20c villain has left behind which we're going to get almost all the time when he hits and this is just about a call.

I'd expect villain to shove in this spot though in which case we'd fold.
Work on calculating pots odds, this spot is pretty much just maths.

Oh ye and I love the turn sizing. Making it 4x to ship will get alot of players to minraise and flat more often than shove which is pretty bad for us and we still have a comfortable shove when we hit.

OK, thank for the comments. I have been working on pot odds calculations since I posted this and I think I am getting the hang of it somewhat.