$2 NLHE Full Ring: Two pair on wet board

thatguy6793

thatguy6793

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Just wanted your guys thoughts on this last hand. I had just sat down so no stats on any of the villains:

I'm on the button with Jd9d.

UTG calls $.02, MP calls, I call, BB checks.

Flop comes KsJs9s, obviously I love the two pair but the straight and flush draw on the board is pretty unwelcome.

BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, I raise 3BB ($.06), BB raises to $0.25.

Now obviously having no stats makes the hand a little harder, but I folded thinking it's better to be safe here with no information than lose a decent chunk of my stack to the possible flush. What would everyone else have done?
 
Alucard

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Do not limp like ever in a cash game. Raise or fold

BB just had the opportunity to see the flop with nothing at all and he might be way ahead with 32s catching a flush
 
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braveslice

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Interesting question for me because I would always call because we still have 6 outs for full, but I have a feeling better players than me would have fold or raise strategy here. No idea why though.
 
Figaroo2

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It's a very large bet with several players still in the hand so it's polarised to value or a dumb bluff. I favour value here there is too much that beats you and too many people in the hand
 
TheBigFinn

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I agree with Alucard. The first mistake was limping in a newly seated low stakes game. BB could literally have any two cards. The question is, "Is he beating a flush, a flush draw, a worse 2 pair, a pair of kings, a pocket pair, or maybe just an ace."

Personally, when I get 3 limpers in front of me, I will 3-bet squeeze with at least 25% of hands. You block his kings and are beat all of them except the J. You have to ask, "Why the check raise." Doesn't look like he wants a call, does it? And its a penny game.

I think you have more than 50% equity and should 4 bet $1. He no longer has the odds to call a draw. Alternatively you could just call and see what happens. If a 4th spade comes, you have to fold.
 
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TryTo

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I think call after 2 limpers isn't a mistake if the other players don't like to fold to 3-bet. And after check-raise I would call, particularly in deep stacks in position. We have 9% of a deck for fullhouse. Sometimes villain does not bet on the turn and we can see 2 cards for free. If we catch J or 9 he often willn't be able to fold his flush and give us all his stack.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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The first raise preflop is not a 3-bet.

The terminology comes from fixed limit. The first bet preflop is the big blind. The first raise of the big blind is a "2-bet". A re-raise is a 3-bet. Ect.

There's no blind bet on the flop, so it starts with 1.
 
Alucard

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I think call after 2 limpers isn't a mistake if the other players don't like to fold to 3-bet.

No it's not IMO. It's just an excuse you make your self to see the flop cheaply as possible with any two cards hoping to connect with the flop.

I've seen in high stakes cash games some people using limping strategies but this is not a good idea on micros at least. When you are limping into a limped pot you are showing weakness since the start of your hand. And often than not the others will almost always neglect you having a good hand (in the SB) & it's what happens most of the time. So simply you are giving away your money.

Too many people in the pot > The pot could get bigger very quickly. So your TP, T2Ps feel never good against these kind of raises and bets.
 
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braveslice

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I have not seen any good reason yet to raise pre, I'm ready to change my opinion, but it really sounds a bit masochistic, especially if you do it frequently and you have stats to show that.

If sb or bb is agressive I see a reason to raise, but also to fold. If only utg on the hand raising sounds better.

We want to have multiway pot with this hand? More the merrier? What am I missing?
 
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Alucard

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I can't explain to you stats wise cause I don't know how to lol & you are way more experienced than me. What I've explained above is what I feel about limping generally.
What if you miss the flop or connect with the board heavily or even drawing?
In all those incidents, you are either missing on value, or giving away free money.

Simply put when you show aggression pre against a passive pot, it make so easy to continue post flop on any board.
When you limp in like this the odds are high that someone has a better hand than you cause it's a multiway pot. So even if it 2p, are you willing to punt the last two cards on catching a boat? On a multiway pot, too often your TPs, T2P aren't good that much.

And I've heard Doug Polk say in one of his videos that he never limps into a pot. So far I've been following his advice & I see no reason to go against this one. lol.

Perhaps someone experienced might share his thoughts about it.
 
TheBigFinn

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Thoughts some more about it. What are the chances villain flopped a flush? Since we see 3 spades there are only 10 left in the deck or 55 combos. What are the odds he has a flush draw? He has to have a high spade let's say A, Q, T, 9 or 8. How many combos are there of those?

There are 47 cards left and 37 of them are not spades which can be paired with the 5 spades we picked for out spade draw 37*5=185 flush draws or 3 times as many flushes. Add in 2 kings (you have one) with the 45 other cards = 90.

In short it is ~5 times more likely villain does NOT have a flush than he does. If you push the rest of your stack you are betting $1.92 ($2-0.02-0.06) to win $0,44 (0.08+0.06+0.25). when you are a 4 to 1 favorite, on the flop.

If villain has a flush draw and she calls she hits 35% of the time and you lose and sadly you only have 4 outs one time (since the other is the heart), so 20% of the time she has the flush to begin with and she has a flush draw she wins 35% of the time. 55/45. A push breaks even. Add in the everything else and the times when she folds the draw and it looks like pushing is a winner.
 
Figaroo2

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Re the limping aspect Alucard is right about limping generally. I agree you shouldn't limp in this spot unless you happen to be very deep with some of the players ideally at least 200bb. But generally you make money in poker by forcing loose weak players to fold their limps pre or limp calls on the flop. Doing that repeatedly and picking up those 3 to 7bb pots is how you grind out your bottom line not limping in against a bunch of others and hoping to hit the flops. That's an ok tactic in deep stack high stakes but not 100bb 2nl.
I am prone to the occasional limp against weak players with speculative stuff like J9s I'll do a review of my database to see how I do when I limp but I'm certain it won't be anywhere near as good a return as raising.

I still think this is a fold to the check raise. This is exactly how QT, KJ K9 or a flopped flush should play the hand looking to get calls from the nut flush draw. Best case is he's overplaying the nut flush draw himself but there's too much out there that beats me to want to gii on this flop.
 
Figaroo2

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limps v raising limpers

Lol about 10 times better then to raise those limpers than to limp along or open limp;)
I did look at J9s specifically and when i limped the hand I was winning +$8 but had a -14/100bb winrate, I did make 4 well disguised hands that got reasonable well paid but its few and far between. When I raised limpers with J9s my win rate was +984/100bb
 

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Figaroo2

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equities versus raising range

This took a little while but as he was getting a free look in the BB all suited spade combos are possible so I filtered all of the suited hands to spades only (other than KJ K9 J9) and put in all the other combo's that beat us or we chop with.
So we have just 16% v that range. I didn't add in AsQs asuming he'd squeeze pre but clearly our equity would be slightly worse with it in there.

When I added in all the possible nut flush draws our equity went up to 32% still not enough for me to want to gii versus his range.

Last night on a 20nl table I saw a fish limp 3rd into a pot with AA in the CO and it went 5 handed to the flop after the button limped as well.
 

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braveslice

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Lol about 10 times better then to raise those limpers than to limp along or open limp
For me it’s:
Hero’s range {J9s,J8s,T9s,T8s, T7s,98s,97s,87s,86s,76s,65s,54s}, under 10NL games, and limped with previous limper or limpers, 314 hands, 28.77bb/100.

Only aggressive play I was able to generate from PT4, was same range, did raise previous limper or limpers, 145 hands, -95.31bb/100 <- This really does not make sense, but I found no mistakes while going through the action. I was expecting positive results here :bawling::bawling:
 
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braveslice

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Talking still about raising/limping/folding:

How about->
On micros we have 2 main rules to follow, #1 Value bet your good hands #2 Don’t bluff fish

Raising J9s is not category #1 at least in 6max, and it breaks rule #2. CB air or even draw breaks rule #2

If we can't use bluff as our tool raising and getting initiative has lost most of it's glory. Even while we know the villain is calling Ax 2 streets, we can’t really 3barrel profitably J-high, because these same player can call 3barrel with any made hand. Maybe we can (and I have been just unlucky), but well there is this rule #2.

There might be differences between full ring vs 6 max, for example weak tight are almost nonexistent in 6 max at their purest form. If you limp on 6 max, you get raised practically always, so surely people limping do not just roll over when you raise.
 
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Figaroo2

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For me it’s:
Hero’s range {J9s,J8s,T9s,T8s, T7s,98s,97s,87s,86s,76s,65s,54s}, under 10NL games, and limped with previous limper or limpers, 314 hands, 28.77bb/100.

Only aggressive play I was able to generate from PT4, was same range, did raise previous limper or limpers, 145 hands, -95.31bb/100 <- This really does not make sense, but I found no mistakes while going through the action. I was expecting positive results here :bawling::bawling:

When I stuck in that exact same range I was winning at +29bb/100 hands when raising limpers (4640 hands in an 800,000 hand sample) and losing at -13.2bb/100 hands when limping along. (1900 hands in the same sample)
My previous figures were for all hands where I limped and all hands were I raised limper(s).
I think its safer to say at the micros just never limp, its common sense that it doesn't win as much limping as coming in with a raise and its going to be at least a minor leak and often a worst leak for most players.
If you are losing whilst raising limpers with those hands then you are probs better off just folding them and or need to play them more aggressively.
 
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braveslice

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There shouldn't be any reason to lose money when limp these, as well as there shouldn’t be any reason to lose money when raising these. In position against fish, or multiple fish, with hand that flops ok it's hard not to make money.
 
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