$2 NLHE Full Ring: Turn decision, possible flush

Vini_lepoker

Vini_lepoker

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/12/5

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 27)
BB: 95.5 BB (VPIP: 13.52, PFR: 9.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 620)
Hero (UTG): 117.5 BB
CO: 40 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 103 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 12.17, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 117)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5:club: 5:spade:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: 5:heart: 9:club:
Hero bets 4 BB, BTN raises to 19 BB, Hero raises to 53 BB, BTN calls 34 BB

Turn: (113.5 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero???

Am I loosing in the long run if assume villain has the flush (or even straight) in this spot?
 
Romario2223

Romario2223

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I'll call here You have a set and outs to full house.
 
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joe777

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Check the turn but observe villain bet-sizing if any.
 
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seventhsense

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You're already half in, have significant equity and could well be ahead knowing the way 2nl plays.

Your sizing is a problem here. Your flop bet needs to be larger, then you can more easily ship over his raise.

I'm shipping the flop anyway seeing how strong his raise is, and.. again.. it's 2nl.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Uhhh we only have a half pot behind. Even if he shoved and showed you the flush it's a break even call.

On the flop, make your 3-bet smaller (min-raise) or just shove. You left yourself a goofy stack size on the turn. I'd lean towards just jamming the flop.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Yeah just jam turn. I might even over bet jam over his flop raise because most villains are not folding draws/2p/overpairs on this flop. Especially when this villain raises the flop, he is looking to GII.
 
Vini_lepoker

Vini_lepoker

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Thanks for the posts, I suspected it was a close decison.

I'm learning more and more that Nl2 players are very passive and if they can make raises usually they hold something good. I did many mistakes and lost many buy ins for not respecting their big bets and raises. On the flip side I can't give them credit every single time, and I thought this was one of this times.
 
John A

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I think the biggest learning lesson here for you OP is to know and understand when you're committed against someone's range. You really can't do anything else but shove the turn. You don't want to check and give them a free card, and if your opponent shoves the turn you'd have to call.
 
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ndnk

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Honestly I don't hate your play here. You could bet more OTF (maybe 5 instead of 4 BB given how drawy the board is), but it's not a big deal. I do agree that your flop 3 bet could be either smaller or larger because of the weird situations you get into when he calls. I'd go with smaller, like a minraise, because then you will probably get value out of almost any of his weaker hands since this is 2NL: most draws and pairs, and only fold out pure bluffs (or induce a shove), and you set it up nicely so you have a pot sized bet left behind. Although min raises can sometimes scare people off, so something like 40BB could also work (though the pot geometry isn't as nice then).

Turn is a bad card for sure. He has a lot of flushes or straights in his range, but also does have some strong pairs. Since you don't have much left behind, every hand he has is probably calling here. The only hand that didn't "get there" is J10 and if he's got JT with a heart he might even call you because it's 2NL. If you check, you are obviously going to call a shove with so little behind, and he's going to shove with his flushes and check back pair hands instead of turning them into bluffs most likely, so I think this is a sigh shove. He'd probably also shove with 67 if you check turn and river, so I think shoving now is the only option even knowing that plenty of stuff in his range beats you, given that he has enough to call you that doesn't.
 
Vini_lepoker

Vini_lepoker

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I think the biggest learning lesson here for you OP is to know and understand when you're committed against someone's range. You really can't do anything else but shove the turn. You don't want to check and give them a free card, and if your opponent shoves the turn you'd have to call.

What do you think his range is? I mean, what hands would a 17/12 villain call a flop 3bet with? I think 88+, A5s+, K9s+, 67. As bad as calling a 3bet with a flush draw is, I do think that a player like this could do that at NL2.

On the turn the effective stack is 40BB, if I check and he shoves 40BB will be getting 2.5:1 pot odds, I need to have a hand that I think it has 40% or more chances of winning.

I do think that there are more hands that beat me than hands that do not in this spot. I don't see why I am committed, please correct me if I am wrong about his range or anything else.
 
Vini_lepoker

Vini_lepoker

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Honestly I don't hate your play here. You could bet more OTF (maybe 5 instead of 4 BB given how drawy the board is), but it's not a big deal. I do agree that your flop 3 bet could be either smaller or larger because of the weird situations you get into when he calls. I'd go with smaller, like a minraise, because then you will probably get value out of almost any of his weaker hands since this is 2NL: most draws and pairs, and only fold out pure bluffs (or induce a shove), and you set it up nicely so you have a pot sized bet left behind. Although min raises can sometimes scare people off, so something like 40BB could also work (though the pot geometry isn't as nice then).

Turn is a bad card for sure. He has a lot of flushes or straights in his range, but also does have some strong pairs. Since you don't have much left behind, every hand he has is probably calling here. The only hand that didn't "get there" is J10 and if he's got JT with a heart he might even call you because it's 2NL. If you check, you are obviously going to call a shove with so little behind, and he's going to shove with his flushes and check back pair hands instead of turning them into bluffs most likely, so I think this is a sigh shove. He'd probably also shove with 67 if you check turn and river, so I think shoving now is the only option even knowing that plenty of stuff in his range beats you, given that he has enough to call you that doesn't.


Thanks for the reply! If you do think he has plenty of stuff that beats me, wouldn't it be correct to don't waste 40BB? 40BB is not much left behind?


Spoiler:
I actually shoved on the turn thinking that a 17/12 villain wouldn't call a 3bet with a flush draw, got called by KQ of hearts.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Even if we are wrong we make the best hand 20% of the time and we only need ~23% against his entire range. So if he flipped over his cards and showed you the flush it's almost break even but he also has other hands he calls with to make it clearly +EV

Also I think your math of needing 40% is a little off
 
alipalip

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No palcefor thinking with the half stack that you had, just shove and hope it is a QQ,KK, JJ AK, A9s K9s etc.
 
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jsh169

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I would of reraised larger and then after that your kinda committed.
 
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ndnk

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Thanks for the reply! If you do think he has plenty of stuff that beats me, wouldn't it be correct to don't waste 40BB? 40BB is not much left behind?


Spoiler:
I actually shoved on the turn thinking that a 17/12 villain wouldn't call a 3bet with a flush draw, got called by KQ of hearts.

Even if he has a lot of stuff that beats you, there's enough that doesn't beat you. Because of pot odds and full house equity, you don't even need to be ahead half the time to make a shove mathematically profitable. I think your hand is way too strong to just check/fold. 40 BB is not much, as you say - if it was like 140 BB, perhaps you could very well find a fold.
 
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