$2 NLHE Full Ring: Super wet board OOP with OESD+Overpair

T

themosthigh

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Lag and a fish behind

LP- 39/24/4 over 40 hands
CO- 53/17/1 over 220 hands

NH? Standard bet fold the turn amirite? I figured I could still get calls from 9s,KJ, FD's, aside from the 2pair hands we are behind.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $1.89
BTN: $0.93
SB: $4.75
BB: $1.05
UTG: $1.94
UTG+1: $0.66
MP: $1.71
Hero (MP+1): $2.99
LP: $1.77

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K:heart: K:diamond:

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, Hero raises to $0.10, LP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.35, 3 players) T:club: J:diamond: Q:diamond:
Hero bets $0.22, fold, CO calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.79, 2 players) 7:heart:
Hero bets $0.50, CO raises to $1.57 and is all-in, fold
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Sadly one pair is rarely good here. He likely holds 2 pairs.
 
Aleksei

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sigh, fold. Only thing you can beat there is top pair, you don't have the odds to beat anything else.
 
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T

themosthigh

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was gonna say maybe you missed the passive guy getting aggressive lol
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Snap CALL. You don't need much equity at all to call here and you have outs when behind.
 
Suited Frenzy

Suited Frenzy

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Snap CALL. You don't need much equity at all to call here and you have outs when behind.

This^^^

My 1st thoughts before I read the results of the hand is that he had AQ.

You're @ 2NL. I wouldn't suggest making these kind of folds a habit (depends on the player though of course). Def not when you're holding an overpair w/ an OESD.
 
AlfieAA

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Snap call, you're getting nearly 3/1 on your money, he's prob got A7 or something.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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We need to call 1.07 into 1.29 pot:

- If he has 2 pairs which are NOT diamonds we win with 9, K, A so 10 full outs out of 46 = 21.7% chance to hit and this is a best case scenario for us.

- If he has a set, everything is the same since FD is out of the question.

- If he has a straight, we possibly win with 9 or A (assuming he did not call with exactly K9s or AK, with AK being much more likely), only 8 outs and some might be tainted.

Basically I don't see that we have the odds. Lets assume a passive guy is never spazzing out here with less than 2 pairs.

P.S. Seriously, some of these guys are so passive they don't raise with less than absolute nuts. :D
 
Aleksei

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$2.86 pot

He's getting almost 3/1 as Alf said.
hmm my math says $1.29 into $3.08 pot. That's actually under 2:1 and we have 10 outs to the river, so we don't really have correct odds to beat anything that currently beats us.
 
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DunningKruger

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River as played isn't a snap anything. It's pretty close either way. If there's any chance he plays hands like AQ/KQ this way you'll have to call it off. If the only hands you can actually beat in his range are like T9dd and/or ATdd then you don't actually have enough equity here. I'd be calling this here myself as I'd expect this player to show up with something dumb and poorly played some non zero percentage of the time.

hmm my math says $1.29 into $3.08 pot. That's actually under 2:1 and we have 10 outs to the river, so we don't really have correct odds to beat anything that currently beats us.

Neither of those figures are correct. Divide the remaining amount you need to call off by the total size of the pot once you call.
 
AlfieAA

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hmm my math says $1.29 into $3.08 pot. That's actually under 2:1 and we have 10 outs to the river, so we don't really have correct odds to beat anything that currently beats us.


2.8/1 lol
 
WVHillbilly

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It's 2nl against a less than 100bb stack, it's as close to a snap call on a scary board as we're going to get.
 
B

baudib1

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If he has 2 pairs which are NOT diamonds we win with 9, K, A so 10 full outs out of 46 = 21.7% chance to hit and this is a best case scenario for us.

You're missing a lot of outs; if he has 2 pair that's not T7dd we have 36.3%. (for example. vs QJ we have 3 7s, 3 Ts, 4 As, 4 9, 2 K as outs.) He's going to show up with something retarded often enough like 87dd or Q9 or J9 that we should pretty much snap call here.
 
Four Dogs

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The thing is, there's actually very little chance that your kings are ahead here. You almost never see this line from a single pair or a drawing hand but at .01/.02, anything is possible. As you said, this IS a super wet board and stinks of 2 pair or maybe a flopped set. I would think that AK, QQ or JJ would have raised PF so the most likely set is TTT. The 7 on the turn is a virtual blank unless he hung around after the flop with 77. Possible, but unlikely.

But as pointed out, none of that matters. You ARE getting 2.67:1 and you have a shit load of equity. Even if we add AK and 77 into his range you're still only a 3% dog. I can see how this might not be a snap call at the table, knowing or strongly suspecting that you're behind, but it really should be. This is exactly the sort of situation that should be worked out away from the table with Poker Stove so that you have an easy decision in the heat of battle.
 
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DunningKruger

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You came back. Where'd you go.

ty for mentioning poker stove I'm not sure if some of the people replying here use it..
 
Four Dogs

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I had to take some time off from poker. I wasn't right in the head.
 
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themosthigh

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wow this thread blew up. Snap call really? Thats a shocker
 
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