$2 NLHE Full Ring: Sticking with the aces

While it's easy to calculate outs when you have a draw, I find it impossible to calculate the odds of my nuts still being the winning hand. I tend to hold on to them as I see a big pot out there, and it's not about my entire stack.

Should I fold here on either street? I don't have any reads on the players.

pokerstars Game #66797284814: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) -
Table 'Bernardina III' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Dench898 ($0.94 in chips)
Seat 3: mzjudy800 ($2.60 in chips)
Seat 4: CistaCista ($3 in chips)
Seat 5: g4mbler4l1fe ($2.08 in chips)
Seat 6: Yorkoo ($1.52 in chips)
Seat 9: RANUK ($0.98 in chips)
RANUK: posts small blind $0.01
Dench898: posts big blind $0.02

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CistaCista [Ac As]
mzjudy800: calls $0.02
CistaCista: raises $0.06 to $0.08
g4mbler4l1fe: folds
Yorkoo: calls $0.08
RANUK: calls $0.07
Dench898: folds
mzjudy800: folds

*** FLOP *** [8d 9h Qs]
RANUK: checks
CistaCista: bets $0.30
Yorkoo: raises $0.40 to $0.70
RANUK: raises $0.20 to $0.90 and is all-in
CistaCista: calls $0.60
Yorkoo: calls $0.20

*** TURN *** [8d 9h Qs] [6d]
CistaCista: checks
Yorkoo: bets $0.54 and is all-in
CistaCista: calls $0.54

CistaCista said:

While it's easy to calculate outs when you have a draw, I find it impossible to calculate the odds of my nuts still being the winning hand. I tend to hold on to them as I see a big pot out there, and it's not about my entire stack.

Should I fold here on either street? I don't have any reads on the players.

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Yeah I find this kind of spot tricky too.

The flop rerasie and all-in from the two villains suggests to me that at least one of them has a strong hand like JT, QQ, 99, 88, Q9 or 89, all of which have you beaten. The only hands I can see them having which you beat are AQ, KQ, and maybe QJ.

Thinking about it I would probably fold...in reality though I would probably have 5-bet shoved the flop

micromachine said:

The only hands I can see them having which you beat are AQ, KQ, and maybe QJ

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I was thinkig also KK, JJ or TT. Since they are relatively short-stacked and it is 2NL I expect players to shove TT or JJ like that.

CistaCista said:

I was thinkig also KK, JJ or TT. Since they are relatively short-stacked and it is 2NL I expect players to shove TT or JJ like that.

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I forgot about KK and you are right, JJ and TT are also possibilities. If we take that into account then we have 6 hands you lose to and 6 or more (maybe some bluff hands from first villain) hands you beat. As there are two of them I guess it would still be a fold but I would be interested to see what others think.

We really need to know what kind of players we are dealing with in this hand. Are they calling stations or do they raise a lot? Are they tight or are they playing every hand? This is what will help you figure out what the proper move is.

Bet more pre, because of the limper. Don't overbet the pot on such a wet board. Don't call after two re-raises. They might be weak and loose, but they're rarely capable of huge bluffs at this level.

You beat almost nothing that's just going to flat call you preflop... so you can rule out hands like KK, possible even JJ or TT (those are more likely to flat). You're hoping one of them has AQ, KQ or QJ... well then what does the other have? Unless you have something specific on the players involved, you should fold to the re-raise all in on the flop (but lead out for less). If they're bluffing, so be it... you'll find better spots. Don't play this way at the micro-levels as a "deep stack" against shorter stacks, out of position. That's how you burn through what you've won.

JamesDaBear said:

Bet more pre, because of the limper. Don't overbet the pot on such a wet board. Don't call after two re-raises. They might be weak and loose, but they're rarely capable of huge bluffs at this level.

You beat almost nothing that's just going to flat call you preflop... so you can rule out hands like KK, possible even JJ or TT (those are more likely to flat). You're hoping one of them has AQ, KQ or QJ... well then what does the other have?

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Wow, looks like you are dead-right on every point. I had not deduced any of that information correctly when I played the hand. I can't believe I was hoping for KK
Thanks for taking the time!

Tbh Id probably 4bet shove all day here

bgomez89 said:

Tbh Id probably 4bet shove all day here

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Given how this hand was played... I really like this idea now that I think about it. But are you doing it to get the first raiser to fold or do you really want to be all in against both of them? I think at this level, there's no chance he folds, but maybe...

Given how hand played vs. two likely donks it seems difficult to get away from it. If we were deep with both donks it's probably a fold.

Agreed if we were deep it's a fold but due to stack sizes I'm getting it in and expect to get called by worse