This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: Set-mining attempt but flop comes with low cards... within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/22/1.17
PokerStars - $0.02 Ante $0.01 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 1203 BB (VPIP: 36.61, PFR: 21.62,
I basically call as an attempt to set mine since I figure when I hit I will get paid off often. The board comes so nice and low, but he pots it. Is the big sizing both pre and on the flop a dead tell that he has a bigger overpair to the board? Or can recreational players cbet big with AK or AQ?
I guess it's a fold with the tens, but in other spots I can get scared with even bigger overpairs. I frequently fold JJ or QQ on safe boards with no overcard on the board against big aggression since I'm scared of the bigger pairs. Is this a leak of mine?
Similar Threads for: $2 NLHE Full Ring: Set-mining attempt but flop comes with low cards...
I don't know ante tables, but in regular and zoom betting pot doesn't really tell anything without notes. It can be nuts, over cards, OP, draw, A9 really with one shot.
This is hard hand for me especially because this format is unknown, but calling can't be bad, if everything else fails you have at least one out =) Equity vice you should be well leading here, you could actually 3bet pre too you know?
10th January 2017, 11:37 PM
It would be nice to have some stats on the villain, puts us in better position of analysing his play. In absence of such, an UTG raise usually should be all/higher pocket pairs and AQ+
A continuation bet of pot does give alot of ideas here but he may be capable of doing the same with AQ+ as well. More often I would weigh an overpair more here or maybe 99 even. However since we are in position and flops are usually small on the flop (still small compared to this format of ante you are playing) I wouldnt mind peeling one off to see how the villain reacts and also if we improve OTT. I also feel a flop call as a must bc of our flat pre due to which our hand is sorta under repped.
The turn however would be a tricky spot and I would analyze the bet sizing of the the villain there. Ideally I'd like a x x but most villains are also capable of double barrelling air plus we have all the above ranges we are already considering.
I wouldnt mind letting this go on the turn if the villain gives us terrible odds and if he is an unknown or tight player.
Just my 2 cents
10th January 2017, 11:44 PM
Sorry I didn't realize you posted the stats as well. Well only a 100+ hands but still the villain seems quite aggro. I would definitely check his pfr UTG and may even 3bet him if its quite wide. If he has alot of cbet in his style I would definitely call him light as well which is not the case here as we have a good hand. I would check his cbet for flop turn and river and also his win at showdown to estimate what bets I can expect on the next streets and if he can do this with air/marginal hands.
Nonetheless if he has flop cbet of 60+ I would definitely call with TT here.
10th January 2017, 11:45 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
A few things first the hand.
1. his vpip is 30%+ im more inclined to check his range utg and perhaps 3bet for value since he should call us with Ax hands and pairs we crush and plus we have position. His 3betting is 6% which isnt too crazy so i think 3betting here In position will exploit his wideness.
We do have to becareful because sample size isnt big enough for some judgements. Im calling all cbets on this board with ATC and will see what he does on turn.
Like brave said what notes can say or betsizing tells can help but at these stakes we dont see the same person enough to overly worry about.
Generally movements people will do in oppoments spot is they bet flop and check turn when missed... so we attack turn and win the hand its that easy... but more advanced players will double barrell gut shots and flush draws and put the pressure back on us. and then our answer will be shoving and trying to find the spots where we are right shoving most of the time over the times we are crushed... thats poker in a nut shell.
Now lets comment on a few other things.
1. You have position...u should never be scared. Definetly an area you need to work on so you feel a bit more confident.
2. recreational player... tbh the sample size isnt big enough to make this judgement and also using these terms in micros could give you reasons to bleed money and justify bad plays... dont fall into this trap.
11th January 2017, 7:39 AM
re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: Set-mining attempt but flop comes with low cards...
I have 119 hands on villain tho, so AF should be close to his real value? He seems kinda passive postflop, so yes, I agree now that I should peel the flop and see what he does on the turn (fyi I actually folded the flop, I don't remember if I took AF into consideration at all at the time, or if I folded just because I was scared of the overpair).
But on the turn I'm pretty sure I'm folding if he barrels on a brick card.
11th January 2017, 7:21 PM
Poker at: None
As always in poker the best answer is, "It depends.' Not knowing much about the player or the game I'd venture more than half of the c-bets in this position do not have a over pair to your 10s. There just aren't that many in his range.
If he is loose and opening 10% of his hands big pairs are under 2% of that. Do expect him to check the other 8%? I'd guess he is c-betting all of his broadways, AJs+ and AQo+ all of the time and some of his lesser hands some of the time.