$2 NLHE Full Ring: Set of 9s vs TAG

Villain's stats: 9/7/2 with a 2% 3bet percentage over 181 hands
Hero's stats: 14/11/2 with 100% c-bet percentage

Two questions:
1). How do you play this on the river? Bet/fold? Check/call?
2). Then based on how I played it, what do you do?

Also, the bet sizing on the flop must have been a misclick cause I literally always bet 75% and with a set Id bet more.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

CO ($4.99)
Button ($1.25)
SB ($2.37)
BB ($0.54)
UTG ($1.08)
UTG+1 ($1.21)
Hero (MP1) ($2.41)
Villain (MP2) ($5.15)
MP3 ($0.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9 , 9
2 folds, Hero bets $0.06, Villain calls $0.06, 1 fold, CO calls $0.06, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.21) 2 , 9 , 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.12, Villain calls $0.12, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.45) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.34, Villain calls $0.34

River: ($1.13) J (2 players)


Results below:

Bet/fold >>>> check/call > check/fold imo. He can call with so much worse when you bet, and he has to play face up with a flush, so it's easy to get away since he's never bluff-raising the river.

Also he's not really a TAG - bit too nitty, and I'm guessing his range has a lot of PPs in it, like TT and 88, and he might look you up with as low as 8s.

How much do you bet on the river for a bet / fold, Scourrge?

pocketehs said:

Also, the bet sizing on the flop must have been a misclick cause I literally always bet 75% and with a set Id bet more.

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problem here I think, vs fish its fine to bomb monsters because they don't notice, but you don't want weakly played reg overpairs hero folding rivers because you bet massive.

like 0.75 imo, but people might disagree.

Two questions:
1). How do you play this on the river? Bet/fold? Check/call? vs this player generally I'd say clearly bet/fold, but being this is 4 penny poker and all I just don't like that line in these games and think check calling is fine in this particular hand.
2). Then based on how I played it, what do you do? Call.

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If we don't like bet/folding because of the $$ it takes; I feel like, against this player, we could even value bet 1/3 pot or less and fold and we'd save some of the river bet as well we'd pick up more calls with random hands.

Need more hands on this guy or an example showdown hand cause it's just hard for me to trust that a guy is 9/7/2 in 4NL and makes me think it's just an anomaly.

OMGITSOVER9K said:

like 0.75 imo, but people might disagree.

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Definitely bet/fold >> check/call

If we are going to bet/fold a smallish river bet of ~65c seems good.

pocketehs said:

How much do you bet on the river for a bet / fold, Scourrge?

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I'd probably go around 70c.

David G said:

If we don't like bet/folding because of the $$ it takes; I feel like, against this player, we could even value bet 1/3 pot or less and fold and we'd save some of the river bet as well we'd pick up more calls with random hands.

Need more hands on this guy or an example showdown hand cause it's just hard for me to trust that a guy is 9/7/2 in 4NL and makes me think it's just an anomaly.

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The problem with betting tiny is that we're not bet/folding to "save money," we are bet/folding for value. The whole point of the fold part is that the times when he raises, we know we are beat and then get away. But we are still betting for value against villain's range.

And since villain's range is probably relatively inelastic, we can bet bigger to get more value.

Pot the flop, 90% the turn. Get the money in against these fish. I then probably check the river and fold to a shove, call a small bet.

youregoodmate said:

Pot the flop, 90% the turn. Get the money in against these fish. I then probably check the river and fold to a shove, call a small bet.

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Reasoning for the river play?

Scourrge said:

Reasoning for the river play?

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Against a nit/really TAG player like this hes only really calling with hands that beat us (he wont be playin, J7 and even 76 is unlikely etc). We've shown sufficient strength that I doubt he will shove as a bluff, besides 2NL usually bet small as a bluff. FD is a huge part of whats left of his range by the river, so I think we're beat majority of the time when he ships the river. I dont think we should try and force value here.

youregoodmate said:

Against a nit/really TAG player like this hes only really calling with hands that beat us (he wont be playin, J7 and even 76 is unlikely etc). We've shown sufficient strength that I doubt he will shove as a bluff, besides 2NL usually bet small as a bluff. FD is a huge part of whats left of his range by the river, so I think we're beat majority of the time when he ships the river. I dont think we should try and force value here.

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How are you coming to this conclusion? Are you actually running combos? If so, what range are you giving villain after turn call?

What can he realistically have in terms of flush draws? He's 9/7, so his PF calling range is hugely weighted toward pocket pairs, and probably big broadway cards (often suited). But if you don't think he's playing as low as 76s, I think we can rule out 87hh, and I doubt he plays suited gappers at all. Even if he does, I'd say QThh is the lowest, which means at MOST he has QT, KT, AT, KQ, AQ, AK for FDs. And since they're only in hearts, that's a measly 6 combos. If you disagree and think he can have way more FD combos, let me know and enlighten me please cause I just don't see it.

So assuming he only has 6 FD combos, and assuming he never bluff-raises the river (assume all his raises beat us so we can just fold), he only needs a few other combos for bet/fold to be the most profitable action. If he is capable of slowplaying sets then we're fine, because he has 6 combos of lower sets on the flop, and he most likely calls with 77 on the flop too, so we can't really eliminate a set of 7s from his range. Tbf he probably could have played JJ like this and run into a set of Js on the river too (this player likely doesn't 3bet JJ pre).

And if he shows up with any PPs that he's getting sticky with that missed the flop we are profitable bet/folding.

I think I like the bet / fold on the river the best. Here is the range I put villain on from each street.

PF - 22-JJ / KJo+ / QJ+ / AJo+ (maybe has QQ but doubt it)
F - 77-88 / TT-JJ (I imagine he raises these though) / QJs+ / AJ-AQ - can take out 22 and 66 b/c I think this player would raise flop bet if he had a set.
T - 88, TT-JJ / QJ+ / AJ-AQ

I think his range would def be weighted towards suited broadways like QJ or like strong ace high hands that he would 3-bet us with pre (so basically just exclude AK and maybe AQ).

Really the first time I've been starting to focus on what type of hands makes sense instead of just deciding whether Im good or not based on strength so let me know if any of that doesnt make sense lol

Anyone have more comments on how I actually played the hand on the river?

pocketehs said:

I think I like the bet / fold on the river the best. Here is the range I put villain on from each street.

PF - 22-JJ / KJo+ / QJ+ / AJo+ (maybe has QQ but doubt it)
F - 77-88 / TT-JJ (I imagine he raises these though) / QJs+ / AJ-AQ - can take out 22 and 66 b/c I think this player would raise flop bet if he had a set.
T - 88, TT-JJ / QJ+ / AJ-AQ

I think his range would def be weighted towards suited broadways like QJ or like strong ace high hands that he would 3-bet us with pre (so basically just exclude AK and maybe AQ).

Really the first time I've been starting to focus on what type of hands makes sense instead of just deciding whether Im good or not based on strength so let me know if any of that doesnt make sense lol

Anyone have more comments on how I actually played the hand on the river?

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The PF range isn't going to be that wide. Certainly not KJo. Assuming the stats are accurate, they are probably only calling preflop maybe 5-10% of the time. That's gonna be between 30% and 90% PPs.

Scourrge said:

The PF range isn't going to be that wide. Certainly not KJo. Assuming the stats are accurate, they are probably only calling preflop maybe 5-10% of the time. That's gonna be between 30% and 100% PPs.

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Agree on the PPs. What do you mean by 30% though? So you think PF is probably just KQs+ / 22-JJ / AJo-AQo?

Thanks for the help everyone!

Sorry for being unclear. I meant that the percent of his range that is PPs is going to be enormous. 30% at least.

Bet/fold is okay as you played it, but I bet way more on previous streets which means the river has to be a check or shove.

Also what pairs do you think hes flatting and then calling a river shove with, I cant see any. I doubt he slowplays a set on that board.

Scourrge said:

Sorry for being unclear. I meant that the percent of his range that is PPs is going to be enormous. 30% at least.

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I would say well over 30%, given the few combo's suited broadways make up of his range (1 combo each) i think we can still just bet fold the river super happily as there is 0 chance a fish like this is raising the river with worse. He can also have worse sets and hands like QQ

It sounds ridiculously nitty and i probably wouldnt ever manage it in game, but i think vs a 9/7 you could probably fold the river quite happily which is sick, betting is better though.

youregoodmate said:

Bet/fold is okay as you played it, but I bet way more on previous streets which means the river has to be a check or shove.

Also what pairs do you think hes flatting and then calling a river shove with, I cant see any. I doubt he slowplays a set on that board.

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I agree. I know a AF of 2 isnt super aggressive and I know its hard to evaluate his aggressiveness or passiveness b/c the sample is small however; I still think that if the Villain had 66/22/77 we would have heard about it before the flop esp with two hearts on the board.

I think the only pairs that he flats pre with are TT-JJ and maybe QQ but I doubt it. The way he played this hand looks so much like a flush draw.

Heres my reasoning for how I played the river and let me know if you think its okay...I checked the river and planned on calling off any bet from 60-75%. If he jams or pots it, I fold. A lot of the time at 2NL players dont bluff shove without the nuts. Well at least 9/7s dont lol

Planning to check call a 60-75% bet is dumb You beat nothing that he bets, if you check here, you fold when he bets. You see why?

I agree a lot of people will raise a set at some point before the river so we should discount them, although i think QQ is in villains range a ton more than it isnt, it should probably be in his range too considering a 14/11 opened from MP, i still think its a bet though because he will sometimes raise his AQhh type flush draws on the flop and will sometimes flat hands like KK and AA for all we know, plus he should have 6 combo's of QQ here like always, its 2nl, everyones bad even if theyre tag,lag or nit, theyre all gonna make mistakes.

acky100 said:

Planning to check call a 60-75% bet is dumb You beat nothing that he bets, if you check here, you fold when he bets. You see why?

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Yup Acky I think I get it now. I have to fold b/c his bet is for value and not a bluff but if we bet we can get some of his weaker hands to fold and then still leaves us with the opportunity to fold if villain comes over the top? kinda getting there at least? lol

Acky, are you more likely to c/f if we bet more on the previous streets and have a pot sized stack left? I feel we dont get calls from 1010 or 88 enough even betting smallish, a bigger bet commits us anyway when he shoves.