Originally Posted by youregoodmate
Against a nit/really TAG player like this hes only really calling with hands that beat us (he wont be playin, J7 and even 76 is unlikely etc). We've shown sufficient strength that I doubt he will shove as a bluff, besides 2NL usually bet small as a bluff. FD is a huge part of whats left of his range by the river, so I think we're beat majority of the time when he ships the river. I dont think we should try and force value here.
How are you coming to this conclusion? Are you actually running combos? If so, what range are you giving villain after turn call?
What can he realistically have in terms of flush draws? He's 9/7, so his PF calling range is hugely weighted toward pocket pairs, and probably big broadway cards (often suited). But if you don't think he's playing as low as 76s, I think we can rule out 87hh, and I doubt he plays suited gappers at all. Even if he does, I'd say QThh is the lowest, which means at MOST he has QT, KT, AT, KQ, AQ, AK for FDs. And since they're only in hearts, that's a measly 6 combos. If you disagree and think he can have way more FD combos, let me know and enlighten me please cause I just don't see it.
So assuming he only has 6 FD combos, and assuming he never bluff-raises the river (assume all his raises beat us so we can just fold), he only needs a few other combos for bet/fold to be the most profitable action. If he is capable of slowplaying sets then we're fine, because he has 6 combos of lower sets on the flop, and he most likely calls with 77 on the flop too, so we can't really eliminate a set of 7s from his range. Tbf he probably could have played JJ like this and run into a set of Js on the river too (this player likely doesn't 3bet JJ pre).
And if he shows up with any PPs that he's getting sticky with that missed the flop we are profitable bet/folding.