$2 NLHE Full Ring: river raise???

DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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Full Tilt, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $3.90 (195 bb)
SB: $1.98 (99 bb)
BB: $2.08 (104 bb)
Hero (UTG): $3.94 (197 bb)
MP: $1.86 (93 bb)
CO: $4.31 (215.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K
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K
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Hero raises to $0.06, MP folds, CO calls $0.06, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.15) J
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2
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6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.15, CO calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.45) 9
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, CO calls $0.45

River: ($1.35) 9
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.35, CO raises to $3.65 and is all-in,

She has to have flush here, right??? but does she have the odds to call flop and turn with draw?

Results:
Hero calls $1.93
$7.91 pot ($0.39 rake)
Final Board: J
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2
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6
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9
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9
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Hero mucked K
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K
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and lost (-$3.94 net)
CO showed A
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7
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and won $7.52 ($3.58 net)
 
John A

John A

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Any stats?

No, they don't have odds, and usually river raises, especially at these stakes means you're beat. There's no fold equity on the river (even if they don't understand that), and if they have Jx, they are just calling the river. This is one of those easier folds to make because there's no real missed draws (only ones that hit) even though you're getting sick odds. I'd probably bet 1.10 and fold to a shove, but your sizing isn't horrible if you feel you can get away from the hand.
 
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Ubercroz

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Without some kind of read on this person I can't think of a reason to call. I can't imagine a J doing this, or any other pair. Its either a flush or a bluff, and this would be a pretty heroic bluff.

Fold.
 
DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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I dont have much stats on her (im keep referring to a villain as she because se have girl in av :)) 29/8 and 3b-2 on 150ish hands but i saw her doing some crazy stuff before planing to imitate fancy plays with strange check raises on flop and turn, or limp 3-bets pre flop which doesn't make any sense when you get to the showdown. Im not saying that this call is justified, i actually couldn't beat much there, small pockets could probably be in her flat range, i dont see her doing that with JJ but with 66+ why not (i dont think that utg raise would mean much to her to tighten up more) so im pretty much beat on 3 of a same suit and a pared board...

On the other hand, if i put this this way im getting a 3:1 odds after her raise, so i need to be right just 25% of the time to break even, lets say that i need to be right when i call every third time to be break even with the rake, does it make any sense???
 
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thatgreekdude

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i reckon a check call/fold on the river is good there, unless villain is a MEGA FISH

'she' hasn't got pot odds to chase her draw, but remember implied odds,in her mind she's probably thinking you have an overpair and if I hit my card i can stack this guy :p
 
Arjonius

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It wouldn't be unusual for villain to look at the implied odds to call the flop with a flush draw. This thinking becomes less valid on the turn, but some people will call anyway, especially if they have a pair plus draw with the Jc or 9c.

I think you can bet somewhere around .75 to .90 on the river and fold to a shove.
 
John A

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I dont have much stats on her (im keep referring to a villain as she because se have girl in av :)) 29/8 and 3b-2 on 150ish hands but i saw her doing some crazy stuff before planing to imitate fancy plays with strange check raises on flop and turn, or limp 3-bets pre flop which doesn't make any sense when you get to the showdown. Im not saying that this call is justified, i actually couldn't beat much there, small pockets could probably be in her flat range, i dont see her doing that with JJ but with 66+ why not (i dont think that utg raise would mean much to her to tighten up more) so im pretty much beat on 3 of a same suit and a pared board...

On the other hand, if i put this this way im getting a 3:1 odds after her raise, so i need to be right just 25% of the time to break even, lets say that i need to be right when i call every third time to be break even with the rake, does it make any sense???

Well, if you have a read that she was playing goofy, and making really odd plays then it could justify your call. And yes, like I was saying, you're getting sick odds, but also even bad players (most) know that you don't have to call much more versus what you invested already. So it makes it less likely to be a bluff. I'd probably still bet/fold a little less in general, but your read could be justified.
 
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SaadOmizer

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I would have had villain down chasing a flush after the turn, was thinking more AJc JQc JKc AQc A10c but AXsuited and suited one gaps in her range when she called the turn. 66 22 and any unsuited J with a good kicker would more than likely have raised the flop or turn for value from anybody chasing a draw.

FLOP/TURN is OK for mine. River, I would probably have C/F if she bet, definatley folding to a 3bet shove on the river
 
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thebigslade

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Given the pot odds, I don't think villain mucks 1/4.

The only way I can see this being a bluff is if villain has a read on you, and thinks that you'll bet fold Jx+ on the river a large amount of the time. After flatting the flop and turn, the only bluff I can see is T8/QT.
 
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