$2 NLHE Full Ring: Questionable turn call against 2 villains who show strength

LD1977

LD1977

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UTG+2: $2.06
MP1: $2.00
MP2: $2.44
CO: $2.00
BTN: $1.40
SB: $0.49
Hero (BB): $2.88
UTG: $2.76
UTG+1: $1.30

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with Q 6
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.09) Q 5 2 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, BTN calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.39) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.28 all in, Hero calls $1.08, UTG+1 calls $0.78 all in

River: ($4.13) 9 (3 players - 2 are all in)


BTN is 36 / 2 / 0.6 (123 hands)
UTG+1 is 29 / 6 / 2 (17 hands)

I was playing on 3 tables (trying to get to 4 and then I mean to stop and try playing as well as I can on all 4 as preparation for the future) and couldn't really calculate pot odds but I want to see what you guys think.

OK, so here is my thinking process:
1. I bet the flop with top pair weak kicker and a flush draw. I get calls from probably other flush draws but even if they hit my Queen high has a chance. If they hit a flush and go All In I fold since the Queen is not good enough.
- I am getting called by better Queens, straight and flush draws, in all cases I can win the pot but if everyone folds here it is good enough for me :D
- Correct?

2. On turn one of these guys is likely to have a straight, probably wheel but 6 high is possible too. The other one, probably either chasing flush draw or has 2 pairs/set of probably 4s but another straight is also possible.

Now:
1) I have 9 outs for the flush which is likely to win here.
2) I have 2 additional outs for winning or tying straight.

Still, pot odds are not enough and calling is a mistake, right? I couldn't be sure UTG+1 will call. With his call this is borderline but still bad since outs don't all win?
 
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youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Im calling this.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Why? Math seems to say it is a bit -EV to call, no?
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Calling $1.08 to win $3.30 assuming we dont know utg will call. So we need about 30%.

9 flush outs, 3 straight outs, gives us 24% already.

Villain could easily be shoving two pair or a draw, so I add three 6's and two Q's to our outs. Gives us 34% plus our pair could already be good. Then if utg comes along our odds get better.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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I might be able to look and find a range that we shouldn't call itt. But in game i'm snaping this off.
 
LD1977

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I think there are only 2 straight outs*** since out of starting 3 outs one is also a flush out and is counted already (in this case that is 3 ♠)? Also, the straight outs are maybe choppers and not winners.

***Please note that I am assuming one of my straight outs is in the hand of one of the opponents here, which is reasonable since there was a raise and a reraise so somebody has to have something juicy :D

Lets be optimistic:
3 ♠ = "free" out and counted as flush out (if not that hurts me too)
3
= in villains hand
other two = 2 "free" straight outs

---------------------------------------------

Flush outs should be winners since villains say they have made hands right now.

So probably I have 9 winning flush outs and equivalent of 1 winning straight out (2 outs for half a pot = 2 * 0,5 = 1 out) as noted above or 2 if he has a wheel and my higher straight wins.

"Villain could easily be shoving two pair or a draw, so I add three 6's and two Q's to our outs. Gives us 34% plus our pair could already be good." - I think this is too optimistic against 2 people who both raised. Yes it is Muppet Show on this level but still usually not to that extent.

So, now that I had even more time to think and calculate it seems to me that with 10-11 outs purely mathematically this is not a good call... BUT... even if this is a mistake it is not even remotely close to the largest one I am making these days, and besides maybe I can write small -EV off as advertising expense? :D :D :D

Can someone check the math and see if I missed something?
 
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youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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If you hit the straight you're likely to be good. So you count all of the 3's in your outs. That's 12.

This is probably a fold at higher stakes but at this donkey fest where the villains are playing 36/2 and 29/6 I'm getting this in and probably getting more outs than I think.
 
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