$2 NLHE Full Ring: QQ on K high board against LAGgy player

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doomasiggy

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 88/50/69

poker stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1838536
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $4.97
SB: $1.36
BB: $2.13
Hero (UTG): $3.88
UTG+1: $3.61
UTG+2: $0.37
MP1: $2.06
MP2: $8.08
CO: $2.71

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with Q
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Q
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Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.08, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.19) K
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2
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9
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP2 raises to $0.26
Hero ???

His raise percentage on the flop is 59% and he had raised me on an all spade board with J showing when he had pocket 4's as well. He had 3-bet me pre with the pocket 4's though.
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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How many hands? Add that stat to every hh because it can make a huge difference on the answer.
 
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doomasiggy

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Must've forgot this time. It was over 34 hands.
 
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sachin79

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hmmm 34 hands is not really enough to get a real info base on the villain. The fact that he has just flat called suggests to me a pocket pair. So the fact that he is re raising , I think he may have 99. I doubt he has AK, or he would have re popped u pre flop (I hope). If he has got a set, you are meant to lose your stack anyway, so just call the flop, re evaluate on the turn, if he comes back at you big, then lay it down.
 
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trolllord59

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Must've forgot this time. It was over 34 hands.

I think he probably has pocket 2s and has flopped he's set. I doubt he has 2 pair and i don't think he would play AK this way. Other hands he might have here kx Broadway type hands and he might be trying to get value from weaker pairs like kx,10s, etc.. Therefore without any rock solid reads i would just give this one up. You have to remember that this is the micro stakes and to be fair players who play here are mostly fish who are pretty honest in how they play.
 
JCgrind

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I know it's only an inconclusive ~30 hands, but 88/50, raise cbet of 59%? No way is this flop ever a fold. Giving him credit for a set here is retarded. "his flat call pre suggests to me a pocket pair", "I think he has a set". Lolwut, ye maybe if he was playing 15/14 but he's playing almost every two cards he's dealt!"

He's not laggy, he's a typical 2nl spewer. As played I call his Jew raise and c/c every street. I prefer just checking the flop TBH and call down all the way cos he's such a monkey and by betting you allow him to raise and are forced to make a pretty gross call down in what is now going to be a way bigger pot.

Also, as much as cbet is mandatory with QQ, it's pretty stupid vs a guy who is raising 60% of flops. Cbetting the flop and not knowing what to do vs a raise if he raises is pretty bad since you can assume he's going to
 
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JCgrind

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I think he probably has pocket 2s and has flopped he's set. I doubt he has 2 pair and i don't think he would play AK this way. Other hands he might have here kx Broadway type hands and he might be trying to get value from weaker pairs like kx,10s, etc.. Therefore without any rock solid reads i would just give this one up. You have to remember that this is the micro stakes and to be fair players who play here are mostly fish who are pretty honest in how they play.

Just no.
1. He's more likely to have 2p than a set and even more likely to have air.
2. You have a pretty solid read he's an aggro banana, or on the biggest pre flop and post flop heater ever- which do you think it is?
3. If you give up here what're you calling down with? Wait til you hit the nuts? His money will be gone by then
4. Raises Cbets on 59% of flops and is being honest in how he plays? Lol.

The reason players like this get big stacks is because noobs actually fold to him and he picks up a ton of pots, which is ridiculous. If you think flop or any proceeding street for that matter is even close to a fold you need to seriously learn to put your opponents on a range and weigh up your hand vs that range

Dooms I like you, you're on here often trying to get better and I appreciate that and would like to see you get up off the micros. So please take the advice of myself and baudib and totally ignore these other two.
 
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Cafeman

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Yeah I probs just check call down vs this guy.
 
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trolllord59

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Just no.
1. He's more likely to have 2p than a set and even more likely to have air.
2. You have a pretty solid read he's an aggro banana, or on the biggest pre flop and post flop heater ever- which do you think it is?
3. If you give up here what're you calling down with? Wait til you hit the nuts? His money will be gone by then
4. Raises Cbets on 59% of flops and is being honest in how he plays? Lol.

The reason players like this get big stacks is because noobs actually fold to him and he picks up a ton of pots, which is ridiculous. If you think flop or any proceeding street for that matter is even close to a fold you need to seriously learn to put your opponents on a range and weigh up your hand vs that range

Dooms I like you, you're on here often trying to get better and I appreciate that and would like to see you get up off the micros. So please take the advice of myself and baudib and totally ignore these other two.


I dont think you understand. This is 2nl here and folding here is not so bad because i think in this spot most of the time he has some kind of king Rag if he's truly terrible as described by OP and possibly a set since he called preflop.

Having that said, I don't think folding here is an optimal play given your hand but i don't think its terrible either. By calling here you put yourself in tricky spots especially if an Ace rolls out which is compounded by the fact your out of position as well.

If your so confident he's air balling here raise because then it will be very hard for your opponent to continue without some sort of made hand. What you seem to be doing is overestimating the value of 1 pair which is ameture. If this guy is a true maniac there will be plenty of better spots that will arise where you can be more confident your ahead and therefore take his chips. You assume he only has 1 buyin and someone will take all of his chips before you? How do you know he wont rebuy? How do you know he wont spike cards and double up? You just dont. And besides even if someone did take his chips 2nl has an abundance of fish to play against and if you cant them then your an idiot.
 
JCgrind

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I dont think you understand. This is 2nl here and folding here is not so bad because i think in this spot most of the time he has some kind of king Rag if he's truly terrible as described by OP and possibly a set since he called preflop. Lolol I don't think YOU understand. My BB/100 is around 20BB/100 at 2NL and I actually have a thread in the brags section about how I was paying rent every week with 2nl winnings only. Here's some advice. You cannot give a guy playing. 80/50 credit for a set just because he flatted pre and basically only minraised the flop, ESP when he's raising 60% of flops

Having that said, I don't think folding here is an optimal play given your hand but i don't think its terrible either. By calling here you put yourself in tricky spots especially if an Ace rolls out which is compounded by the fact your out of position as well.If your so confident he's air balling here raise because then it will be very hard for your opponent to continue without some sort of made hand.
That's stupid. If you raise, then you only get called by a king or a hand that beats you. We flat his raise because... Try to stay with me here.... We WANT him to continue. If you call, ESPECIALLY OOP, it's far more likely this super aggro opponent is going to keep firing bets into you in an attempt to make you fold. If he has a K this one time, so be it. The point is that we're good here so much of the time, and raising actually kills all our value because he unlikely bluff shoves over a flop 3b, but flat flop check turn and he's no doubt barreling 99% of his range at least on the river if not turn aswell

What you seem to be doing is overestimating the value of 1 pair which is ameture. If this guy is a true maniac there will be plenty of better spots that will arise where you can be more confident your ahead and therefore take his chips. You assume he only has 1 buyin and someone will take all of his chips before you? How do you know he wont rebuy? How do you know he wont spike cards and double up? You just dont. And besides even if someone did take his chips 2nl has an abundance of fish to play against and if you cant them then your an idiot.This isn't about finding better spots because we have monster under the bed syndrome and are scared of a K. this is a fine spot to often win 50BB+, OP wants to know the best way to proceed and vs this guy, being a station is the way. Obv were gunna need more to justify calling a x3pot overbet shove or some shit OTR, but vs standard sizings, callings more than fine.
keep telling the guy who made $350 at 2NL in under a month until he got a job and then started blitzing up through the stakes how bad he is. Safe to say I probably have the most 2nl experience with the near top if not best results out of anyone I've seen on here retularly on cc. If theyre not the best, theyre defenitely the best recently. Point is, I know how this stake plays, I know these player types, and I'm not the amateur. Notice how everyone with a lot of posts agrees with me? Ye that's cos I'm right. Stick to taking advice and please don't give any more here, this took forever typing on my phone and I really don't want to have I correct your bad logic all over again.

/grill
 
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JCgrind

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nope i cant even bring myself to stop there, your reasoning is just too bad. hopefully this helps to enlighten OP as to why to call here...

Lets look at some figures;
players hit a pair OTF with unpaired hands 30% of the time
they get PPs (i thnk) 1/12 times, and hit a set with them ~1/7.5 times

lets put that into terms of raising 60% of flops shall we..

if hes raising any K, any 9 or any 2 (including sets of KKK, 999, 222) thats 40% of hands.
if we include all PPs, thats 44.5% of hands.
lets give him some straight draws,, QJ QT, JT, still only 48.1% of hands

see where im going with this?

if thats his range (and thats only 48%, not 60%) were still a ~80% FAVOURITE. zomg amazing huh.

ill bring it up to 60% by adding some big cards, ATo+, ATs+, nope thats still only 53%

obv in 34hands where not going to be able to give him a range this accurate, but we DO have enough info here to know were ahead MOST OF THE TIME

hand ranges, learn.
 
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baudib1

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Problem with this hand analysis is that I guarantee, even after only 34 hands, he showed up somewhere where he 3-bet the flop with AJ on KT9 and binked a gutter against top set or barreled 3 streets with Q-high, thus making this calldown pretty trivial even if he showed up with K2 this one time.
 
JCgrind

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You assume he only has 1 buyin and someone will take all of his chips before you? How do you know he wont rebuy? How do you know he wont spike cards and double up?

no lol. hes 4BI deep for a start. and really? were going to fold because were scared he might suck out? lemme just fold my aces pre because someone might outflop me.

k im done ripping you to pieces now.
 
JCgrind

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Problem with this hand analysis is that I guarantee, even after only 34 hands, he showed up somewhere where he 3-bet the flop with AJ on KT9 and binked a gutter against top set or barreled 3 streets with Q-high, thus making this calldown pretty trivial even if he showed up with K2 this one time.

i know im giving vil way too much credit by giving him TP + semibluff raise hands, infact tbh im being a moron giving a range to someone who clearly doesnt have one. i totally agree this is more often that not like T high no draw.
 
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CaptainKout

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I've been that guy before. He'll be fine.
 
JCgrind

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i did him a favour. this thread should teach him more about poker than what hes learned in the x amount of years hes been playing
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Good show, jchoop. Glad I didn't have to add my 2 cents - you covered it quite extensively haha. :D
 
JCgrind

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ive been lying in bed since like 11.45pm and couldnt sleep its now 3.40am, hence attention to detail lol.
takes a loooooooong time to write posts from your iphone, cc is so not smartphone friendly.
MODS! get a smartphone friendly cc plz :)
 
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doomasiggy

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Just to end the thread: I did call the flop then check call him down, largely for the reasons stated, I just wanted to make sure that my reasoning was correct.

Just for the future, I shouldn't be c-betting this spot, just check calling? Do I call if he shoves the flop or turn?
 
JCgrind

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Just to end the thread: I did call the flop then check call him down, largely for the reasons stated, I just wanted to make sure that my reasoning was correct.

Just for the future, I shouldn't be c-betting this spot, just check calling? Do I call if he shoves the flop or turn?

Def correct in call down.
Look tbh cbet prob isn't even an issue here, it's just that this kind of opponent is going to massively barrel into you anyway, so by cbetting you likely narrow the range of hands he does this with you beat and skew it more to hands that beat you.
Well, generally that's how it would work but he's airball bluffing here that much that it prob doesn't make a difference though lol.
If at any point vil starts betting much more % of pot wise than he normally would in the same spot, that's the only time I'd get wary. If everytime he's raised the flop he's proceeded to shove the turn then it wouldn't make a difference when he shoved the turn on you
 
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