$2 NLHE Full Ring: QQ against a donk bet on a SD flop

MP1: $2.61
MP2: $1.72
CO: $0.67
Hero (BTN): $2.99
SB: $3.93
BB: $2.26
UTG: $0.77
UTG+1: $1.18
UTG+2: $1.38

Pre Flop: ($0.04) Hero is BTN with Q ♠ Q ♣
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, MP2 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12, SB calls $0.11, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.40) 7 ♦ T ♠ 9 ♥ (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB folds

Turn: ($0.80) J ♣ (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.50, Hero folds

MP1 is super aggro postflop 16 / 6 / 12 (75%), only 31 hands observed though

Now, with his aggro stats I think he takes this line with OESD as well as sets sometimes (his range here has all medium pocket pairs). He didn't spew so far but donking into me is a strange decision so I think OESD is most likely (he holds 88).

Anyway, I call and when his potential OESD hits the turn I decide I can't continue here even though I also have OESD now.

1. Is it spewy to call the flop donk bet? I hate this board since he can easily have a set or OESD. Raising seems stupid with just a pair, even though set is more likely to be slowplayed.
2. General line review?

I am re-raising the flop every single time. You can't flat there. Playing scared is only going to hurt you in these situations.

I was pretty shocked when he donked, only later figured out that he mostly doesn't donk a set (although with his aggro stats, who knows).

The logic was that if turn blanks and he slows down then I can call down river since he would definitely bluff if the draw misses.

An overpair is pretty tricky on this board (at least it is rainbow ). I got stacked quite a few times in these situations (usually with AA/KK). Plus, he can be almost certain that I have an overpair and that sucks

Reraise flop everytime , if u call u still not have info about opponet hand , but if u reraise u can got much info from that what he make after that

Not sure I can get reliable info, he might push OESD (he is aggro) or just call with the set. My range is easy for him to read if I raise (overpair, like, always).

The flop is freaking horrible here.

I'm raising the flop there every time. Even as played why fold the turn?

Because I beat absolutely nothing.

LD1977 said:

Because I beat absolutely nothing.

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There are plenty of hands in his range that you can beat here. Maybe you have been snake bitten recently with under pairs hitting sets and the like, but try not to let it affect your game.

You should definitely raise the flop to protect your hand. If he re-raises you just fold but you need to protect your hand against draws and random pairs. Also 31 hands isn't enough. You don't know that he is aggro over 31 hands.

With overpair on flop, I would definitely raise.

rw11687 said:

There are plenty of hands in his range that you can beat here. Maybe you have been snake bitten recently with under pairs hitting sets and the like, but try not to let it affect your game.

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I am pretty sure that hands with which he takes this line (so only a part of his preflop range) all beat me on the turn (already explained above). He is a 16 / 6 so really his range is pretty well defined.

I do beat pure bluffs but this doesn't seem like it. If he can bluff in this manner in 2 NL, well, good for him. Most people don't.

Yoshimii - If he is not aggro then it is even worse

But yes, flop raise seems like somewhat better option, though I am not 100% sure I even have a good option here

LD1977 said:

I am pretty sure that hands with which he takes this line (so only a part of his preflop range) all beat me on the turn (already explained above). He is a 16 / 6 so really his range is pretty well defined.

I do beat pure bluffs but this doesn't seem like it. If he can bluff in this manner in 2 NL, well, good for him. Most people don't.

Yoshimii - If he is not aggro then it is even worse

But yes, flop raise seems like somewhat better option, though I am not 100% sure I even have a good option here

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You can't assign an accurate hand range to him over 31 hands or aggression factor, the only thing we can take from his stats are that he seems fairly decent and he isn't a fish/maniac. He might actually be a 30/25 and just be card dead. Also you have to think about what villains range is for donking, a half pot bet doesn't look strong, I would say that he can easily be donking Top pair any kicker here as he doesn't want another straight card to come off. He can also be donking with an open-ended straight draw. Just because he donks doesn't mean you're drawing dead. Also this is 2nl so villains are usually terrible.

Yes a part of his range could be AT/KT/QT/JT (all suited), donking with such a weak hand is possible since he seems aggressive. I wouldn't do it for sure.

Still, check raising my cbet would be better if he thinks I cbet with nothing... He has to expect that overpair will call a donk bet. Also, how can he be sure I don't have TT?

IIRC he played decently throughout with no spewing and his range stayed the same (don't recall his AF).

OK I think we agree that flop raise is correct, if he reraises/shoves I fold easily.
If he calls flop raise and then donks turn, then what? Also fold?

If he calls flop raise and donks turn, I would be folding unless he does near to a min donk bet, in which case I call.

If you're raising the flop it shouldn't be to fold!

WVHillbilly said:

If you're raising the flop it shouldn't be to fold!

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Even when the 4 to a straight J turn card comes out? No I think if villain calls flop and donks that turn you can't carry on. Plus if he re-raises flop we only beat J/J, A/10 (unlikely) and lose to alot of two pair/sets/straight hands.

Yoshimiii said:

Even when the 4 to a straight J turn card comes out? No I think if villain calls flop and donks that turn you can't carry on. Plus if he re-raises flop we only beat J/J, A/10 (unlikely) and lose to alot of two pair/sets/straight hands.

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All I'm saying is that if we raise the flop and he 3bets we shouldn't be folding. Also if we are behind on the turn we gain at least some equity with our OESD.

probably i call in this situation, maybe he had OESD, or maybe he is just bluffing, i think he made a bet to see if you fold or not, maybe if you had called and after that bet or maybe re-raise the turn, i strongly believe that he will fold. Remember a good moment to make a bluff (in this case semi bluff) is when you only need one more card to make a straight or a flush or when one of this situation are possible. in my opinion of course

sorry but folding turn is ridiculous.

Given that he's super aggro postflop, we should assume he's betting a lot of draws on the flop, as it is rainbow the draws are all straight draws. Being generous with his range as he isn't that loose preflop, I give him zero pure bluffs, every hand in his turn betting range is top pair + SD or better, and we still have 34%.


4,664 games 0.000 secs 932,800 games/sec

Board: 7d Ts 9h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.584% 34.01% 00.58% 1586 27.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 65.416% 64.84% 00.58% 3024 27.00 { JJ-77, AJs, A8s, KJs+, K8s, QJs, Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 85s+, AJo, KJo+, 98o, 87o }


We have to call 50 cents to see the river in a $1.30 pot with lots of money behind, folding the turn is just burning money.

I tried the same with only the power range TT-99-88-77 (sets + OESD) and my equity comes out at 19%.

If I give him 88, my equity is 13.6%.

I have to call 0.50 to see river in a 1.80 pot... but implied odds are decent if K hits (sometimes I stack him). If 8 hits and he holds 88, we chop.

So, if he has 88 in hand I have like 5 outs (4 winning, 2 chopping), so calculation is (44 cards remaining):

1) 4/44 = 9.1% of the time I win his stack (for simplicity I put this at 100% which is far from certain) and the total pot which is:
--- 2.61 * 2 + 0.18 (preflop from BB, SB, MP2, CO) = 5.40$
--- I remove the 0.50 turn call + 2.29 river AllIn
--- netto profit counting since the turn call is 2.61

EV1 = 0.091 * 2.61 = +0.238

2) 2/44 = 4.5% of the time I chop pot and "win" back half of turn pot (0.40).

EV2 = 0.045 * 0.40 = +0.018

3) 38/44 = 86.4% I give up on the river and lose nothing further, but I have to count the 0.50 call

EV3 = 0.864 * (-0.50) = -0.432

So EV for calling the turn (0.50) if he really had OESD but I stack him every time I hit the K is EV1+EV2+EV3 = -0,176 so turn call is unprofitable.

Is the math correct? If yes then the set scenario can be calculated in a similar manner.

Call the flop. Bet when checked to on the turn, otherwise the turn is a fold.

LD1977 said:

I tried the same with only the power range TT-99-88-77 (sets + OESD) and my equity comes out at 19%.

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This isn't a range, it's a list of hands that beat you.

LD1977 said:

If I give him 88, my equity is 13.6%.

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Did you not already give him 88 in the ridiculous range listed above?

Those hands follow the line he took in every case - I only have 31 hands on him so maybe he is not as aggro as he seems.

I gave him ONLY 88 for the worst case scenario.

baudib1 said:

sorry but folding turn is ridiculous.

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I'm 100% in agreement with this statement.

There's no way a fold here on the turn can be a profitable play. You're throwing away money by folding here. The call on the flop is equally as bad.