I tried the same with only the power range TT-99-88-77 (sets + OESD) and my equity comes out at 19%.
If I give him 88, my equity is 13.6%.
I have to call 0.50 to see river in a 1.80 pot... but implied odds
are decent if K hits (sometimes I stack him). If 8 hits and he holds 88, we chop.
So, if he has 88 in hand I have like 5 outs (4 winning, 2 chopping), so calculation is (44 cards remaining):
1) 4/44 = 9.1% of the time I win his stack (for simplicity I put this at 100% which is far from certain) and the total pot which is:
--- 2.61 * 2 + 0.18 (preflop from BB, SB, MP2, CO) = 5.40$
--- I remove the 0.50 turn call + 2.29 river AllIn
--- netto profit counting since the turn call is 2.61
0.091 * 2.61 = +0.238
2) 2/44 = 4.5% of the time I chop pot and "win" back half of turn pot (0.40).
0.045 * 0.40 = +0.018
3) 38/44 = 86.4% I give up on the river and lose nothing further, but I have to count the 0.50 call
0.864 * (-0.50) = -0.432
So EV for calling the turn (0.50) if he really had OESD but I stack him every time I hit the K is EV1+EV2+EV3 = -0,176
so turn call is unprofitable.
Is the math correct? If yes then the set scenario can be calculated in a similar manner.