$2 NLHE Full Ring: QQ against a-high flop, question about ranges

LD1977

LD1977

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MP1: $2.40
MP2: $0.80
CO: $2.00
BTN: $1.73
BB: $2.00
Hero (UTG): $5.59
UTG+1: $2.35
UTG+2: $2.25

Pre Flop: ($0.02) Hero is UTG with Q:club: Q:spade:
Hero raises to $0.10, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.32) J:spade: A:heart: 4:club: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.24, UTG+2 calls $0.24, CO folds

Turn: ($0.80) 7:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $0.40, Hero folds

I have been busy for last few weeks so didn't play cash games much, but did read a lot, especially about ranges.

UTG+2 is 13 / 11 / 1 (31%), only 46 hands though

His range has to include AT-AQ (AK he probably 3-bets), pocket pairs 22-JJ (or at least 77-JJ), probably KQs and maybe even a few suited Aces here. If I look at 11% range in Poker Stove it has around 50% hands with Aces if it is Broadway heavy.

I didn't have time to calculate combinations but figured that chance of him having an Ace here is too big to screw around with QQ. I could represent AK for a domination matchup and pressure him but wasn't sure he would fold turn/river if he called the flop... opinions?
 
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DrSparky

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Forgive me if this is a simple question - I'm a relatively new player...

Do you have any reads on their style of play, had you seen any show-downs from them?

When I read it I think the bet from the villain was obvious as you were aggressive but then checked the turn...

Someone with more experience might be able to say whether a 3 bet here would have been +EV?
 
taaron

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I have been busy for last few weeks so didn't play cash games much, but did read a lot, especially about ranges.

UTG+2 is 13 / 11 / 1 (31%), only 46 hands though

His range has to include AT-AQ (AK he probably 3-bets), pocket pairs 22-JJ (or at least 77-JJ), probably KQs and maybe even a few suited Aces here. If I look at 11% range in Poker Stove it has around 50% hands with Aces if it is Broadway heavy.



WP

So glad to see your using ranges, and that is accurate.


One thing though is that this being FR I'm not always sure he 3bets AK, its quite possible i'm dead wrong, but often times, albeit mostly when we have position on a tight-taggish player type we can simply call so as not to cause a fold from a 3bet, because AK is a value hand.
 
LD1977

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Check/fold the flop.

Why? I raised UTG so if he doesn't have the Ace (which is 50% of the time) he most likely folds here. I bet less than pot so this has to be +EV move for me if I give up after his call.

If I check he can bluff me and then what?
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Forgive me if this is a simple question - I'm a relatively new player...

Do you have any reads on their style of play, had you seen any show-downs from them?

When I read it I think the bet from the villain was obvious as you were aggressive but then checked the turn...

Someone with more experience might be able to say whether a 3 bet here would have been +EV?

Nope, I only have 46 hands total on him and I sat down here maybe an orbit ago.
 
taaron

taaron

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Why? I raised UTG so if he doesn't have the Ace (which is 50% of the time) he most likely folds here. I bet less than pot so this has to be +EV move for me if I give up after his call.

If I check he can bluff me and then what?



imo its fine as played (maybe bet a tad smaller to around 1/2 pot).
WV possibly saying chk/fold flop because of villains stats??? and because we aren't planning to make our hand a bluff vs. this villain.
 
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ScottishMatt

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If you bet flop and check turn he can still bluff you. Only this time you lose more. If you check it isn't in his best interests to bet a J with someone behind on a dry board, by checking you find out where he is at, if he bets he has an ace or a bluff. This is 2NL, which do you think is more likely?

FWIW I play the exact same level and this is a check/fold almost everytime. You don't beat anything that the average 2NL player is willing to bet or call with. You may be able to extract 1 street from a J but the flop isn't the place to do it.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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On this level (2 NL) the last guy in 3-way pot usually autobets. This gives me zero information about his hand and I have to guess. I can't imagine how I find out anything by checking.

When I cbet, they would be smart to fold anything below 2 pair hand since I represent AK minimum and their suited Aces missed the flop (rainbow board, only a Broadway straight draw which is not good enough to call).

This guy especially is unlikely to call without an Ace but I don't have enough info on him to fire another barrel to move him from a possibly dominated Ace.
 
taaron

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On this level the last guy in 3-way pot usually autobets. This gives me zero information about his hand and I have to guess.

When I cbet, they would be smart to fold anything below 2 pair hand since I represent AK minimum and their suited Aces missed the flop (rainbow board).

This guy especially is unlikely to call without an Ace but I don't have enough info on him to fire another barrel to move him from a possibly dominated Ace.



Well, i don't know anything about the autobetting comment but, either way is fine, as long as we make the flop bet a tad smaller if we lead out instead of chk/folding. and btw we do have info on the vilain as he is playing 13/11- the range you put him on is accurate.
 
LD1977

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They LOVE taking shots at checked pots. It can be exploited by check raising since they don't like folding, but checking for info... questionable.
 
WVHillbilly

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Why? I raised UTG so if he doesn't have the Ace (which is 50% of the time) he most likely folds here. I bet less than pot so this has to be +EV move for me if I give up after his call.

If I check he can bluff me and then what?
If he doesn't have an Ace do you really want him to fold when you bet?

If you really think he autobets if you check, don't you think ch/calling would be better than betting? At least that way he can put more money in with a worse hand. Your way he never does (again according to your logic).

I ch/fold here because we're against 2 players and it's a shitty board for our hand. I really don't think you're going to be getting bluffed enough for it to matter.
 
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ScottishMatt

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On this level (2 NL) the last guy in 3-way pot usually autobets. This gives me zero information about his hand and I have to guess. I can't imagine how I find out anything by checking.

When I cbet, they would be smart to fold anything below 2 pair hand since I represent AK minimum and their suited Aces missed the flop (rainbow board, only a Broadway straight draw which is not good enough to call).

This guy especially is unlikely to call without an Ace but I don't have enough info on him to fire another barrel to move him from a possibly dominated Ace.

Unless a Q or a K comes and you blast on him he ain't folding his AT. By betting you only get called by better, you went 5x pre so unless that is your standard raise even a moron understands you have a hand that is more valuable.

Honestly check/folding here is best, you save money when he has it and you set yourself up to extract a street of value on the turn or river from marginal 1 pair hands that aren't willing to turn their hands into bluffs.

Considering how the action went pre and the flop texture your hand is good for showdown value and that is all. Until you have information that indicates otherwise your best move is to take your 1 pair hand to showdown.
 
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LD1977

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Look at his range here.

I want him to fold his Broadway straight draws (which I can recognize when they come, the worst being KTs since if a Queen hits then I am screwed for sure) and dominated Aces (from his perspective) that actually beat me.

So I should get folds more than 50% of the time here if he is cautious/tight enough. I am not sure if I can fire a 2nd barrel though, that is the big question I think.

He can't possibly know if I raised UTG so big with AA, KK, QQ or AK (BTW I normally raise UTG 4x-5x but he doesn't know it here) or even AQs.

If I check he is likely to say "my Ace is good" and then good luck moving him from that (eating 2-3 barrels to the river is not fun AND I lose the showdown).
 
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WVHillbilly

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Lol. How many players do you know at ANY level who call a 5x preflop open with Ax only to fold it to a cbet on an A-high board???

Hint: Unless it's a misclick, NOBODY!
 
LD1977

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You are kidding right?

Suited Aces love calling preflop at 2NL and then hoping for 2 pairs, nut FD flops, straight draws etc.

You are suggesting people at higher level would just sit and eat barrels to the river with a puny dominated Ace? If anything they would drop that thing like a hot coal unless accompanied with a FD or FD/SD combo draw. There is no FD here.
 
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ScottishMatt

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You seem to be obsessed with making him fold his hands that beat you. Remember that the flop is the place where you need to decide if you want to commit to a bluff here. I would decide there and then if I was going to barrel. Thing is there are almost no scare cards for you to fire on. If he has an ace almost every card in the deck is bad for you on the turn.


Just ask yourself why you are betting, ask what you can beat that is willing to call and what beats you that is willing to call. From what i can gather you feel that a gutshot will call you. So you have QK/KT/QT that you beat and will call. Whereas A2/A3/A4/A5/A6/A7/A8/A9/AT/AJ/AQ/AK all beat you and certainly aren't going to fold. In fact almost all of these hands are going to call 2 barrels. So ask yourself on the flop if you are willing to triple barrel, if not then check/folding is the best play.


Edit - As to your post above LD. Who the **** cares what he calls with preflop, you have to assign a range that is willing to call/fold vs you postflop. By saying he is calling all suited aces pre can you not see that you should be conceding WV's point that you should be check/folding. As opposed to putting money in the pot when you are beat by so many hands.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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You are kidding right?

Suited Aces love calling preflop at 2NL and then hoping for 2 pairs, nut FD flops, straight draws etc.

You are suggesting people at higher level would just sit and eat barrels to the river with a puny dominated Ace? If anything they would drop that thing like a hot coal unless accompanied with a FD or FD/SD combo draw.
They still don't fold TP to a cbet. Just never going to happen.
 
LD1977

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I have no idea who you guys have been playing against but when I have TPTK (AK) and value bet 3 times I NEVER see a player with 13 / 11 stats follow me to the river with Ax and no draws. It just does not happen, ever.

Now 30+ VPIP, sure. They call to the bitter end.

P.S. Yes against this guy I am looking for a fold for sure since he is so Ace heavy.
 
WVHillbilly

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I have no idea who you guys have been playing against but when I have TPTK (AK) and value bet 3 times I NEVER see a player with 13 / 11 stats follow me to the river with Ax and no draws. It just does not happen, ever.

Now 30+ VPIP, sure. They call to the bitter end.
Ummm... no one is talking about calling 3-streets. All I've said was that he doesn't fold Ax to the flop cbet EVER! AND since you bet the flop and then check the turn, I fail to see how his calling 3-street calling range is significant in any way???
 
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OK. So he isn't calling shitty weak aces pre. All that tells you is that he has a STRONGER range when he calls preflop and on the flop.

Are you trying to say that you think the correct move is to try and force a TIGHT player off of his STRONG range?


Honestly I didn't even look at your whole original post, so my previous posts were made without the info that he plays 13/11. If anything this just makes me want to take the check/fold line even more.
 
LD1977

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You are both kidding right?

1. You are not helping me by giving advice without reading even the opening post. Seriously, it is just noise.

2. Look at Poker Stove or equivalent. If he is Broadway heavy (default PS range for 11%) then I have almost 50% equity on the flop against his entire range... if he is PP heavy then even better. I don't want to guess until the end of hand and I do not want to allow him an easy bluffing opportunity on the flop so I bet and hope he folds.

3. If he doesn't fold I am sure he holds the Ace and the question specifically asked in the opening post (which neither one of you bothered to read) was whether pressing him further was likely to be a good idea.

I am not checking that flop, period, since I am losing the pot 100% of the time.

This way with a 2/3 pot cbet I should win more than 50% of the time since they have to respect my UTG raise (I am very tight).

Edit: I now think 2nd barrel is the correct move here.
 
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WVHillbilly

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You are both kidding right?

1. You are not helping me by giving advice without reading even the opening post. Seriously, it is just noise.

2. Look at Poker Stove or equivalent. If he is Broadway heavy (default PS range for 11%) then I have almost 50% equity on the flop against his entire range... if he is PP heavy then even better. I don't want to guess until the end of hand and I do not want to allow him an easy bluffing opportunity on the flop so I bet and hope he folds.

3. If he doesn't fold I am sure he holds the Ace and the question specifically asked in the opening post (which neither one of you bothered to read) was whether pressing him further was likely to be a good idea.

I am not checking that flop, period, since I am losing the pot 100% of the time.

This way with a 2/3 pot cbet I should win more than 50% of the time since they have to respect my UTG raise (I am very tight).

Edit: I now think 2nd barrel is the correct move here.
You have 50% equity against his entire range on the flop BUT you have like 10% equity against almost everything that calls a flop bet!

You're also failing to consider that there is still a third person in this hand when you bet the flop.

You're also coming here asking for advice when you clearly have it all figured out. My only real question is why you're still playing 2nl? Betting this flop is bad. Continuing to barrel would be worse. But hey don't listen to me. You obviously know better.
 
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ScottishMatt

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"Beginning player aiming to learn" You know, this applies to me as well, so perhaps you shouldn't listen to me. However if you refuse to accept advice given from more experienced members, WV in this case. Then why are you even asking for assistance?

My part in this thread is over, GL.
 
LD1977

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I don't refuse advice a priori. If fact I am pretty sure I asked for it. Some advice I received here was great, some was completely out of whack with 2NL play.

In fact I have almost never seen a showdown after I checked flop in situations such as the one in this hand. If I did it usually turned out that people drawed out on me with random crap while I was busy calling down their bluffy minibets. Cost/benefit is ridiculously bad in that scenario.

If the board was Ace high and draw-heavy, then yes check/fold is the idea since I can't get rid of anyone who has a hand/good draw.

I have explained my logic every step of the way. WV's post No. 3 is pretty much garbage since he offers ZERO explanation (some other posters love that crap too, so I have to ask for explanations in every freaking post I make until maybe finally I get one).

I didn't mention CO since has has good odds to call with SCs (which missed the flop), PPs (which missed the flop unless we are talking JJ or 44) and Ax hands (which kinda hit the flop but, again, nit raises UTG - what, nobody gives a crap about MY range?). Obviously he folds here a majority of the time. If he doesn't, well, he has a set or an Ace.

WV says he calls a cbet with any Ace. Fine. Does he call turn bet with any Ace vs. an UTG raiser who just fired again?

I am still playing 2NL since:
1) I am not satisfied with my winrate (small winner over 64k hands) and don't want to move up until it gets better.
2) I have extremely tight BRM (I want to have 100 BI for a level before I move up, so 500$ for NL5) and haven't played much in March so the BR stayed at around 150-200$.
3) I focused on tournaments lately since I can autopilot them profitably with minimal effort while I do other stuff, which I can't do as well in cash games (small win rate shows as much).
 
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