$2 NLHE Full Ring: QJo on TJ9Q board

E

eggerdy

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $2.00
BB: $3.59

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12, 2 players) T J 9
Hero bets $0.09, BB calls $0.09

Turn: ($0.30, 2 players) Q
Hero???

I was reviewing a recent session and I came across this hand. I couldn't figure out what the best line was in this spot so I thought I'd post it. The villain is an unknown (I've only got 3 hands on him).

Thanks.
 
Aces2w1n

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Unless you know your opponent well.

It's a tough spot being OOP, sure we have 2 pair but with such a board it doesn't improve our value dramatically.

I'd like to bet the turn though and hope to get a fullhouse on the river. *Still have better hands calling like Qx hands and perhaps weaker two pairs or someone hit 2nd pair.

If I didn't hit the book i'd just check/call river.

Being a blind battle our opponent could be a bit wider as well and often ppl get stuck to hands they have connected with even if its on the weakish side.
 
E

eggerdy

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Thanks for the reply, Aces2w1n.

Are you folding to a raise on the turn?

I agree with betting it. At game speed I check/called because I wasn't sure what to do versus a raise, I think that was pretty bad in retrospect. It lets too many weaker hands, like the ones you mentioned, check behind when they might have called.

Cheers.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'd just bet/fold. You'll probably get enough folds for the bet to be profitable, and there's no way you're getting to showdown with two streets to go here, so might as well turn your hand into a bluff.
 
Aces2w1n

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I wouldnt fold a turn unless he shoves
 
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joe777

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You must cbet the turn if not villain may try to bluff your out of nothing.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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If we check to induce a bluff... we must shove to his bet and make him hate life :)

If he turns up with a bluff more times than a hand that crushes us it's +ev.. Your theory for letting villain bluff us off the hand doesn't make sense.

We need to think about why we are checking or betting before we do it?
 
John A

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If he's aggressive, then check. If he's passive, then bet. If you're unsure, then bet.
 
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eggerdy

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Thanks for the replies, everyone.

If he's aggressive, then check. If he's passive, then bet. If you're unsure, then bet.

I think I'll make this my default in tough spots against unknowns from now on.
 
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Weisssound

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I think we have options.

Looking at the hands that make sense we know we are losing to Kx, and 8x.

We raised, got called. Flop comes 9, T, J, we bet, get called. So we need a hands that fits that line for our opponent.

Do we think 99, TT, and JJ+ flat our bet here? Probably not. Blind on blind these are all standard 3-bets, particularly in position.

What about AJ, AQ, and AK? Well, AK probably 3-bets so we can toss that one. AJ fits this description, AQ probably floats one with a gut shot and two overs.

AT, A9, A8, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, QT, T9, JT, 89, 8Ts, J8s, 78s all fit this line up to this point as well. I'm just assigning general ranges, but I think this is fair.

So: hands that beat us:

A8, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, 89, 8Ts, J8s, 78s. 16 + 8 + 8 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 3 + 3 + 4. That's 78 combos that are beating us.

Hands we beat:
AQ, AJ, AT, A9, QT, T9, JT. 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 8 + 8 + 8. 72 combos we beat.

Some other considerations - we have a few outs in case we are behind. And any hand that doesn't have a King can't be in love with what they have.

I like to check-call. I think we are good enough of the time to call off a bet. I think we can check the river and I don't think our villain will bluff most of the time. AK, KK and KT+ is in your range much more than it is in your villain's range so I think your villain checks back the river with the vast majority of his range, including the low end of a straight. Particularly if another spade rolls out.

I think since we're close to 50/50 on the opponent's range we can mathematically call any bet - we just need to re-evaluate odd bets like over bets and min bets to decide if our villain does these actions with a narrower range.
 
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