re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: QJo on TJ9Q board
I think we have options.
Looking at the hands that make sense we know we are losing to Kx, and 8x.
We raised, got called. Flop comes 9, T, J, we bet, get called. So we need a hands that fits that line for our opponent.
Do we think 99, TT, and JJ+ flat our bet here? Probably not. Blind on blind these are all standard 3-bets, particularly in position.
What about AJ, AQ, and AK? Well, AK probably 3-bets so we can toss that one. AJ fits this description, AQ probably floats one with a gut shot and two overs.
AT, A9, A8, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, QT, T9, JT, 89, 8Ts, J8s, 78s all fit this line up to this point as well. I'm just assigning general ranges, but I think this is fair.
So: hands that beat us:
A8, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, 89, 8Ts, J8s, 78s. 16 + 8 + 8 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 3 + 3 + 4. That's 78 combos that are beating us.
Hands we beat:
AQ, AJ, AT, A9, QT, T9, JT. 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 8 + 8 + 8. 72 combos we beat.
Some other considerations - we have a few outs in case we are behind. And any hand that doesn't have a King can't be in love with what they have.
I like to check-call. I think we are good enough of the time to call off a bet. I think we can check the river and I don't think our villain will bluff most of the time. AK, KK and KT+ is in your range much more than it is in your villain's range so I think your villain checks back the river with the vast majority of his range, including the low end of a straight. Particularly if another spade rolls out.
I think since we're close to 50/50 on the opponent's range we can mathematically call any bet - we just need to re-evaluate odd bets like over bets and min bets to decide if our villain does these actions with a narrower range.