$2 NLHE Full Ring: Playing nut FD strongly, the board pairs, river question

LD1977

LD1977

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Silver Level
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Total posts
3,091
Chips
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UTG: $1.28
UTG+1: $2.26
UTG+2: $2.15
MP1: $5.73
MP2: $0.80
CO: $1.90
Hero (BTN): $2.21
SB: $0.98
BB: $2.67

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with A :club: 5 :club:
UTG calls $0.02, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.07) 9 :club: 7 :club: K :diamond: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.04, BB folds, UTG calls $0.04

Turn: ($0.15) 7 :diamond: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.09, UTG calls $0.09

River: ($0.33) T :club: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.19, UTG raises to $0.38, Hero raises to $2.06 all in, UTG calls $0.75 all in

Ignore the limp, it is not relevant for what I want to know.

UTG is 19 / 2 / 1 (25%), 58 hands. Weekish looking tight passive, no special reads.

He minraises the river and although the board is paired I decide to shove. Now I am thinking if this is +EV or not.

Reasons I shoved:
1. I think he calls with all flush draws that just hit the river (lets say that possible hands are KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT = 6 hands).
2. He could have 99 (3 combos) or 77 (1 combo).
3. 6 > 4 :D

The 6 FD combos I mention are likely the maximum possible so I might be too optimistic. Does he limp UTG T9s, 98s? Probably not.

Opinions?
 
Last edited:
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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You say ignore the limp but that is the glaring mistake in this hand. Anyway, as played I would just call his raise on the river since the board paired.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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The limp is incredibly terrible. The rest is fine.
 
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