$2 NLHE Full Ring: Overbet river with FH for max value?

No stats on villain.


pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Converted at http://handhistoryconverter.com

Button ($4.57)
Hero (SB) ($2.36)
BB ($1.30)
UTG ($2.12)
UTG+1 ($2.26)
MP1 ($3.23)
MP2 ($1.95)
MP3 ($5.39)
CO ($2)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qh, 3h
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.04, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.03, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.10) Kc, 10s, Qc (2 players)
Hero bets $0.06, MP2 calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.22) 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $0.13, MP2 calls $0.13

River: ($0.48) Qd (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30..........



Would it be better to overbet the river here? What sizing is appropriate? I expect villain to call with most flushes and straights.

If put villain on:
- 3 full house combos (5% of the time)
- 14 flush combos (25% of the time)
- 18 straight combos (32% of the time)
- 9 trips combos (16% of the time)
- 12 top pair combos (21% of the time)

Fold pre.

Fold flop.

Don't donk turn. Still a fold here. You don't beat much.

Bet 75-100% pot on river.


Edit: This hand illustrates a ton of mistakes. Playing OOP with rags, calling flop trying to suck out, when there aren't many good Turn cards, donking Turn, giving villain a chance to play perfect and fold worse, then on the river we just drill it, and that's the decision you are worried about?

Rude model, given your values and assumptions, for approximation we assume that he has better flush 50% of the time (A,K,J,T)


First we count how many times you are better to see if there is even sense to think about betting:


Herobetter: 0.32+0.16+0.21+(0.5*0.25) = 81.5% (honestly this seems awfully big number to be in lead with Qhigh flush on the board this crazy, so maybe not perfect range initially, 70% I would believe without too much teeth grinding)

No1: So if you bet very small 0.20 top pair will call
No2: If you bet hefty: 0.30, str will call, trips will call
No3: If you overbet 0.8 str will call


EV20diff: 0.2*(0.5*0.25+0.32+0.16+0.21)= 0.2*0.815 = 0.163
EV30diff: 0.3*(0.5*0.25+0.32+0.16) = 0.3*0.605 = 0.1815
EV80diff: 0.8*(0.5*0.25+0.32) = 0.8*0.445 = 0.356


If raised you are lost, so it changes nothing, so we just disregard it.


As you can see, when only str and flushes call, you only win 44.5% of the time (half the flush draws, + 32% straights). Meaning you want to keep your bet size so small that some of the pairs and trips will call, because every bet you make you always lose a little in large size. And this is my first time doing something like this, so be prepared that there are mistakes. The good rule is that if you know your hand is not strong but beats something, you bet small, well compared to over bet half pot to 2/3 pot, called light value betting.


Btw over betting or not is not topic really in 2NL, 5NL or 10NL. If you play against fish you bet bigger with good hands, that’s all you really want to know. There are so many more important topics than over betting.


One glaring thing you need to learn ASAP, is what you can call and what not, and I can tell you that calling Q3s is wrong, calling Q3s out of position is wronger than wrong. Calling Q3s OOP (out of position) without stats from villain is outrageously stupid and the hand analysis should have ended right there.

Soo much work and wrong hand analyze, crying and gigling .D

There is no delete, that is unfortunate. if mod sees please delete above.

I hope I wouldn't normally call a hand like that...this hand was a month ago so I have no idea what I was thinking.

But yeh, you're both right to grill me for it.

Agreed, fold pre. However, not sure villain can call a huge overbet. I think he has one pair majority of the time on the flop, if he flopped two pair, then I believe he rr your flop or turn bet. I think best line on river is the bet you made. A check might induce him to bet his one pair hands that are now two pair.

For me his most likely holdings are JTs, JTo, medium pair, Kx hands. So his Kx hands he may stab at on river when checked to...

However if he did flop two pair he may just be pot controlling and letting you do the betting for him. If he did turn the flush, I think he will reraise you on river or bet river if checked to.

I'm not going to comment on the hand other than the pre-flop play. The top 3 hands on the review threads in CC right now are all pre-flop folds that ended up becoming big losses. So many people playing these stakes thinking they have solid pre-flop games, when they generally don't.

This isn't directed at OP, but to everyone playing these stakes:
If you want to play higher stakes, you can't take hands, or decisions off. Every decision matters. I see people posting these kinds of hands constantly on here, it's the same thing and generally there's a, "I don't know why I played this hand." <--- if you want to be honest with yourself, this is a big problem. You should know EXACTLY why you played every hand.

If you're playing to muck around, and don't care about your results, that's fine. But if you're playing to learn and move up stakes, it needs to begin with ROCK solid pre-flop decisions. No mistakes. Literally zero.

Maybe this can become a 2017 goal for anyone posting these hands?