$2 NLHE Full Ring: Opinions on this JJ hand?

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Tricky123bet

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/17/1

pokerstars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 97 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 11)
SB: 101 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 290)
BB: 88.5 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 20.37, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
Hero (UTG): 103.5 BB
UTG+1: 155.5 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 94)
MP: 232 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 100)
MP+1: 97 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
MP+2 (Villain): 215.5 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 85)
CO: 102 BB (VPIP: 8.82, PFR: 7.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js Jd
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop : (22.5 BB, 2 players) 3h 9d 7h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 21.5 BB, Hero ???


Is it possible to 4bet preflop, and expect to get folds from AK and AQ, or is this not what I want to do? As played preflop, should I lead the flop, check-call or check-fold? Do players at this stake, of this type, bet this big after having missed the flop holding AK or AQ?

This whole situation gets so much tougher because Im OOP, which leads me to believe I should've 4bet pre. What do you guys think?
 
John A

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Agg?

No, I wouldn't 4-bet when you're opening UTG. And yes, people at these stakes will bet this large when they miss because they want folds. Sometimes it's for value, but usually it's because they whiffed.

I'd call and evaluate the turn. AGG% is going to make a huge difference in how you want to play this.
 
Aces2w1n

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Agg?

No, I wouldn't 4-bet when you're opening UTG. And yes, people at these stakes will bet this large when they miss because they want folds. Sometimes it's for value, but usually it's because they whiffed.

I'd call and evaluate the turn. AGG% is going to make a huge difference in how you want to play this.

Cant we bluff with JJ and rep AA here and get a lot of folds pre? JJ is very tricky post flop esp oop im not sayi by i take this line but just an option? plus his stacks quite big perhaps he is ready to give us money and call 4bets a bit wider than normal
 
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Tricky123bet

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I generally see aces or kings here when they bet so big. I feel like their bluff sizes are often smaller, something like half pot. Idk, feels like calling and "evaluating the turn" is gonna be a losing play more often than not? Especially since it's such a big bet, and I won't have any idea what to do on the turn.
 
c9h13no3

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I personally treat this as a 4bet or fold spot. Your hand is kinda face up when you check/call down. And villain's 3-bet rate us high enough that 4 betting is profitable. Lower than 9% though and you'll probably just want to dump it.

But as previously said, if their aggression % is high enough, I suppose we can flip our cards over and get our opponent to try and make us fold.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Cant we bluff with JJ and rep AA here and get a lot of folds pre?
The rationale for this line is insane. Getting players to fold QQ & KK is a really terrible strategy.

If you're 4-betting here, it's to get calls from TT, gain initiative against hands like AK, and avoid unprofitable spots postflop out of position against our opponent's bluffing range.
 
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Aces2w1n

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The rationale for this line is insane. Getting players to fold QQ & KK is a really terrible strategy.

If you're 4-betting here, it's to get calls from TT, gain initiative against hands like AK, and avoid unprofitable spots postflop out of position against our opponent's bluffing range.


lol it was more about attacking opponents Ax range
 
John A

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Cant we bluff with JJ and rep AA here and get a lot of folds pre? JJ is very tricky post flop esp oop im not sayi by i take this line but just an option? plus his stacks quite big perhaps he is ready to give us money and call 4bets a bit wider than normal

You can pretend in your own head to rep whatever you want w/ any hand, but why turn JJ into a bluff here? I'm not sure what you mean about his stack size, effective stacks are 103bbs.

Look, against someone with this wide of range it would be a significant mistake to 4-bet pre-flop here imho. Why? Because there's really no sizing you can 4-bet and fold to w/ JJ vs his shoving range. You're in no man's land. You can't get better hands to fold, and you can't get worse hands to call often enough for value pre-flop. Mathematically, if we knew he was def 3-betting 9% (small sample), it would be profitable to 4-bet / call, but it's only marginal because your equity vs his shoving range isn't great.

You're much better off calling vs. someone who 3-bets this wide because he'll get a piece often enough w/ second best hands. Now how you play it post flop will depend a lot on his aggression. Please try and get in the habit of posting that because it's a big part of how you plan this hand.

Folding here could be considered a better play if you're against someone really tricky and aggressive. You're probably slightly less than 60% equity versus his 3-betting range here w/ only 3BBs invested. The times you'll get outplayed in those scenarios will make up for the 5-10% pre-flop advantage. 4-bet and calling vs someone who you're really not sure what their 3-bet range yet is a high variance play - especially not knowing how much he respects your UTG open.

The highest EV play is calling on average. Even if your hand is "face up", it doesn't have to be if you build history with your opponent later on. There's plenty you can do to not make this hand face up, but with less than 100 hands, that's not even a concern. He doesn't really know your calling range and if you're sometimes slowplaying or calling with SC's for that matter.

Any ways, I would NOT try and rep AA. That's pretty silly (you crazy man). Someone isn't going to look down at QQ-KK on that board and say, oh, they have AA, I need to fold.

Sorry, edit: just saw the AF was 1... yeah, calling all day 100% the highest EV line here pre-flop. Calling the the flop and checking the turn. This guy is going to slow down more often than not.
 
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16clumsyandshy

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If you're 4-betting here, it's to get calls from TT, gain initiative against hands like AK, and avoid unprofitable spots postflop out of position against our opponent's bluffing range.

I agree with this against a player with such a high 3b stat. It would be great of course if we have seen some of the hands that this player is 3 betting. Check calling flop and reevaluating seems like a huge leak. If he has two big cards why give him a chance to catch on the turn and river? May as well shove if you think your hand is good. The huge flop bet on the coordinated board just screams value to me. Sure it's a bet he would make if he's repping a big pair, but that doesn't mean We should convince ourselves that it's a bluff.

I would probably go: 1. 4b call pre, 2. Fold pre.

Or as played: 1. Check fold flop, 2. Check shove flop.
 
John A

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I agree with this against a player with such a high 3b stat. It would be great of course if we have seen some of the hands that this player is 3 betting. Check calling flop and reevaluating seems like a huge leak. If he has two big cards why give him a chance to catch on the turn and river? May as well shove if you think your hand is good. The huge flop bet on the coordinated board just screams value to me. Sure it's a bet he would make if he's repping a big pair, but that doesn't mean We should convince ourselves that it's a bluff.

I would probably go: 1. 4b call pre, 2. Fold pre.

Or as played: 1. Check fold flop, 2. Check shove flop.

You check/call because he's betting nearly 100% of his range there (especially at these stakes). And you check and evaluate because he's passive enough where he won't bet his air any longer. If you check/shove here you're opponents calling range will have you around a 3:1 dog vs. the extra 24% you give up by allowing your opponent to see 2 more cards is a no brainer. If he bets the turn, you fold and save the rest of your stack. A guy with an AF of 1 isn't 3-betting an UTG players, and firing two bullets with air once someone has called that flop bet. Maybe 5% or the time or less he might have a hair up his butt.

Additionally when you don't have huge samples on opponents you go by population tendencies, which is a subjective opinion here. As someone like myself who's played several million hands online, and observed tons at these stakes in sweats, these bets are generally 80% bluff / 20% for value. Maybe someone else has a different opinion on that %, but that's my general view about these bets.

So just to be clear, I think check/shoving the flop will be marginally +EV, but we're looking for the highest EV line when we talk poker on a high level correct?
 
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16clumsyandshy

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You check/call because he's betting nearly 100% of his range there (especially at these stakes). And you check and evaluate because he's passive enough where he won't bet his air any longer.

Thanks for the post, John. I'm not totally familiar with how the agg stat is calculated, but my question is this: You said passive players dont barrel on this board, but do they bet this big on the flop? Maybe they do, you said you've had a lot of experience at these stakes. But if I put myself in the villains position, if I totally miss the flop on a low coordinated board, I'm either checking behind or betting something other than pot. Perhaps this is the wrong assumption, but it's just my opinion. Obviously the best thing here would be CB flop / CB turn stat, but we don't have that many hands on him.
 
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Tricky123bet

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Love getting so many replies, thank you for helping me with this :)

The 3bet sample size is pretty small tho, pretty sure it was 1/11 (and not 2/22 which would be more accurate). It could be either way. At least the 3,5x PF 3bet screams of value to me. And then bets pot on the flop. Could villain take this line with AQ or AJ I wonder? You tell me, I only have 10k hands of experience :)

Also 99 could be in his range and mayyyybe 77? (Or am I way off here?)

Check-shoving flop is something I never would have ever considered, but I get your reasoning for doing that.
 
c9h13no3

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Calling a 3-bet OOP is really strong. And when you check/call & check again it's really easy to discern a slowplayed overpair. It doesn't take history with an opponent.
 
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16clumsyandshy

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The 3bet sample size is pretty small tho, pretty sure it was 1/11 (and not 2/22 which would be more accurate).

I was wondering if the 3b stat of 9% is 9% of the total hands, or is it 9% of the total hands villain has raised pre? I thought it was the first ...
 
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16clumsyandshy

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Also curious about results...
 
c9h13no3

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I was wondering if the 3b stat of 9% is 9% of the total hands, or is it 9% of the total hands villain has raised pre? I thought it was the first ...
9% of hands where it is possible to 3-bet.
 
John A

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Thanks for the post, John. I'm not totally familiar with how the agg stat is calculated, but my question is this: You said passive players dont barrel on this board, but do they bet this big on the flop? Maybe they do, you said you've had a lot of experience at these stakes. But if I put myself in the villains position, if I totally miss the flop on a low coordinated board, I'm either checking behind or betting something other than pot. Perhaps this is the wrong assumption, but it's just my opinion. Obviously the best thing here would be CB flop / CB turn stat, but we don't have that many hands on him.

Yes. And typically speaking, the more passive they are, the more these big bets tend to be bluffs vs. for value. Players who are playing this passive tend to have the mindset of, "I want a fold here, so I'm betting big to force a fold". And especially so against a pre-flopper, as I like to call them. Someone who plays somewhat aggressive pre-flop, but has no post flop game. You will of course have a certain % that just see their hand and are hoping someone has a large second best hand as well. That's going to happen, but by in large most of these larger bets on dry boards tend to be, as Norma Chad would say, "squadoosh".

I've actually never played these stakes before, I'm just saying I've played quite a bit of online poker, and I've sweated plenty of people at these stakes. These are just my observations, and check them for yourself and see if they hold true.
 
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