$2 NLHE Full Ring: NL2 AK vs preflop AI

The stats are only over 15 hands, and he had a 3bet % of 25. My question here is: Can I make a profitable call here? I believe his push range is somewhere around 99+ and AJo+

pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1.35)
SB ($0.99)
BB ($4.07)
UTG ($2.06)
UTG+1 ($2.91)
MP1 ($2.04)
MP2 ($1.97)
Hero (MP3) ($3.30)
CO ($1.72)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K:heart:, A:heart:
4 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, BB raises to $4.07 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $0.17 | Rake: $0

Personally I'd call.. you are crushing quite a bit of his range

I'd call, he's obv a mong who can jam worse Ax which makes it a call imo.

I call as well.

The stats are only over 15 hands, and he had a 3bet % of 25. My question here is: Can I make a profitable call here? I believe his push range is somewhere around 99+ and AJo+

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Over 15 hands we shouldnt be looking at any stats, especially 3b.

The only things we should be looking at is positions and stack size. We are early while he is in the blinds so that scenario typically reps strength. Also we are 150bb deep so that would lean towards strength as well. If he was short i would put him on a wider range.

We have no reads and thats a huge call and lots of bbs to gamble with. I would fold and not worry about it. We only invested 4bb anyways. Just wait for a more +ev spot where we know we are ahead.

What?! fold AK pre? Because the only hand we dominate is AQ/J etc which is unlikely to begin with. Otherwise we are 50% and less. To make such a huge call readless and against a range that is most likely much stronger than you predicted i think is a mistake.

Even if you knew for a fact his range is 99+ and AJ+, we are 55% to win. I think its unnecessary variance at 2nl.

Bottom line i just fold and find better spots.

dooydoo said:

Over 15 hands we shouldnt be looking at any stats, especially 3b.

The only things we should be looking at is positions and stack size. We are early while he is in the blinds so that scenario typically reps strength. Also we are 150bb deep so that would lean towards strength as well. If he was short i would put him on a wider range.

We have no reads and thats a huge call and lots of bbs to gamble with. I would fold and not worry about it. We only invested 4bb anyways. Just wait for a more +ev spot where we know we are ahead.

What?! fold AK pre? Because the only hand we dominate is AQ/J etc which is unlikely to begin with. Otherwise we are 50% and less. To make such a huge call readless and against a range that is most likely much stronger than you predicted i think is a mistake.

Even if you knew for a fact his range is 99+ and AJ+, we are 55% to win. I think its unnecessary variance at 2nl.

Bottom line i just fold and find better spots.

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We have more than AJ+ in his range, I include more aces. We are way ahead of his range so get it called, we are suited so flipping against pairs.

Basically we dominate more of his range than his dominates ours. We're playing cash not a tournament, so take the +EV and run with it.

I can't fold here. I've seen them show up with AJ/AQ , 88 , J7s enough to just turbo click call and be happy about it

Yeah, snapcall.

Snap call that all day.

You have to be certain he's doing this with JJ-AA to make it a fold, unless you fancy a flip. If i knew it was a face card pocket pair then i may think twice about putting in whole stacks just because as pointed out about you can fold and avoid the variance. If he's done it before with anything other than face card pairs then i'm snap calling.

dooydoo said:

Over 15 hands we shouldnt be looking at any stats, especially 3b.

The only things we should be looking at is positions and stack size. We are early while he is in the blinds so that scenario typically reps strength. Also we are 150bb deep so that would lean towards strength as well. If he was short i would put him on a wider range.

We have no reads and thats a huge call and lots of bbs to gamble with. I would fold and not worry about it. We only invested 4bb anyways. Just wait for a more +ev spot where we know we are ahead.

What?! fold AK pre? Because the only hand we dominate is AQ/J etc which is unlikely to begin with. Otherwise we are 50% and less. To make such a huge call readless and against a range that is most likely much stronger than you predicted i think is a mistake.

Even if you knew for a fact his range is 99+ and AJ+, we are 55% to win. I think its unnecessary variance at 2nl.

Bottom line i just fold and find better spots.

Click to expand...

while i dont think 3b shover is thinking about EP raise, must be strong therefore shove must be strong, i think YOU specifically should fold. personally id happily snap it off, but i was a mass multitabler at 2NL and 2 BI wasnt usually hard to come by at all.
For more than 100BB i agree that this is unnecessary variance. just hang tight and wait for a better spot. you have position on him, youll get his $ another time

I'm taking this call all day every day. People complaining about sample size ITT -> why does the sample size matter? If he's shoving effective 150bb over a 4x raise from UTG then he is a genius or a fish. And if he's done it twice then he is 99.99% certain to be a fish.

Yes we are losing to pocket pairs, but as others have said, people who over-shove like this tend to have really stupid concepts of = a good hand to shove with. With AQ I am hesitating, but with AK he can't out-kick you so we likely dominate a large part of his range (Ax, Kx, ATC (yes people can shove these)), and are flipping with pocket pairs. We are only dominated by two hands, AA and KK, and we obviously have blockers to both.

There is definitely an argument that could be made for avoiding variance, but I think that is only valid if you are on an extremely limited bankroll. If you were offered this exact scenario 100 separate times, you would take all of them and expect to win probably 70 to 80 of them against his likely range. I like those odds even if it's a bit high variance.

Call TT+, AK, AQs.