re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: NL2 AK vs preflop AI
I'm taking this call all day every day. People complaining about sample size ITT -> why does the sample size matter? If he's shoving effective 150bb over a 4x raise from UTG then he is a genius or a fish. And if he's done it twice then he is 99.99% certain to be a fish.
Yes we are losing to pocket pairs, but as others have said, people who over-shove like this tend to have really stupid concepts of = a good hand to shove with. With AQ I am hesitating, but with AK he can't out-kick you so we likely dominate a large part of his range (Ax, Kx, ATC (yes people can shove these)), and are flipping with pocket pairs. We are only dominated by two hands, AA and KK, and we obviously have blockers to both.
There is definitely an argument that could be made for avoiding variance, but I think that is only valid if you are on an extremely limited bankroll. If you were offered this exact scenario 100 separate times, you would take all of them and expect to win probably 70 to 80 of them against his likely range. I like those odds
even if it's a bit high variance.