$2 NLHE Full Ring: Mid pair + nut flush draw. Villain stats available.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/19/10

Online
8 seated
.01/.02

HERO is dealt in CO w/ 330 BB stack.

Villain is on BTN w/ 260 BB stack.
VPIP - 22 / PFR - 19 / 3B - 10 thru 246 hands

PREFLOP
2 limpers to HERO in CO who opens for 3.5 BB. Villain on BTN raises to 10 BB. The 2 limpers fold. HERO re-raises to 36 BB. Villain calls.

FLOP (75.5 BB)
HERO checks. Villain bets 40 BB. HERO shoves for 184 BB effective. Villain calls.


Did i get it in good or nah? I feel good about this play but am curious to see what others think. Thanks.

Preflop: 4bet size looks big but I am fine with villain high 3bet stats. This may force him to fold some weaker hands and avoid playing OOP.

Flop: Clearly a hand to GII at SPR but I would like to bet the whole range on the flop and barrel the turn. Not sure AA/AK would fold to you check raise but if villain has AJs here probably won't call off. Maybe AdQd and lower flush draws are better candidates for this check-raise line

1) Pre-flop you shouldn't be 4-betting this deep w/ this hand. This is a call this deep nearly always. OOP like this, and deep, hands like AJs go down in value versus someone who has position on you and is over 200bbs.
2) There's no reason to check shove the flop. I'm guessing in a solver this is a c/c at least 90% of the time, which to simplify means you should be check calling almost your whole range here.

I think, the most important part of this hand is preflop. An open size of just 3.5 BB against two limpers will usually result in a cascade of callers, which is not, what you want, when you are trying to isolate limpers. You need to give people a legit reason to fold, and the way to do that is go much larger. 5BB or even 6BB would be a lot better than just 3.5.

Anyways it did not matter, because you got 3-bet, and then the next decision is, do we 4-bet? And I would say no. AJs is ahead of a decent amount of his 3-bet bluffs, but if you 4-bet, he is mostly going to fold those and call or 5-bet with all the hands, that have you beat. So you are kind of allowing him to play perfect and giving yourself the worst of both worlds.

I will also say, that I am not going to make adjustments based on these HUD data. Sure a 3-bet of 10% is high, but over 246 hands this number is probably something like 8 3-bets out of 80 opportunities, so there is still a lot of variance in that number.

To be sure, that someone is actually 3-betting to much, you typically need a sample of at least 1k hands, unless the number is insane and also supported by an equally insane PRF. And this is not really the case here, since ok 19 is a bit high for 8-handed game, but its not maniac territory, and also not 100% accurate over just 246 hands.

As for postflop you can either check-call or check-jam, and I dont think, its makes a real difference in the long run. Check-jamming is easier, so I can be on board with it. On the flop you know, you have a boat load of equity, even if you are behind, but if the turn brick, you can be in a pretty difficult spot with the risk of making a costly mistake.

I tend to mostly agree with fundiver, especially his preflop remarks. Also worth noting in lower limits, people tend to only 3bet when they have a big big hand. I tend to agree with the other poster that 10% is a bit high but he's more likely to have gotten a large number of good hands than be over-3betting. So I tend to disagree with a 4bet here, I would have just called. I also like check/call a lot more than check/raise on the flop, but would be inclined to check/raise almost any turn(excluding a non-diamond Q or 10).

At the end of the day, I'm guessing villain had KQ or AK...so the money was probably all getting in at some point no matter what.

kkonicke said:

At the end of the day, I'm guessing villain had KQ or AK...so the money was probably all getting in at some point no matter what.

Click to expand...

AK in particular makes a ton of sense. You dont really want to 5-bet and get it all in 260BB deep, but its ok to call a 4-bet in position and see a flop. And then when its checked to him, and he flopped TPTK, he is of course going to bet.

Sam Powers said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/19/10

Online
8 seated
.01/.02

HERO is dealt in CO w/ 330 BB stack.

Villain is on BTN w/ 260 BB stack.
VPIP - 22 / PFR - 19 / 3B - 10 thru 246 hands

PREFLOP
2 limpers to HERO in CO who opens for 3.5 BB. Villain on BTN raises to 10 BB. The 2 limpers fold. HERO re-raises to 36 BB. Villain calls.

FLOP (75.5 BB)
HERO checks. Villain bets 40 BB. HERO shoves for 184 BB effective. Villain calls.


Did i get it in good or nah? I feel good about this play but am curious to see what others think. Thanks.

Click to expand...

I think your preflop 4 bet out of position is pretty spewy unless you have a very specific read on this opponent. His 3 bet % is slightly high but even at 10% AJs out of position is not particulary strong. As played, I think it is fine and you probably are behind but with substantial equity (oviously). To me, the style of play you are exhibiting by pushing small (if that) edges this hard, will result in increasing your variance in the long run substantially. Just my opinion.

xxgsaint5501xx said:

I think your preflop 4 bet out of position is pretty spewy unless you have a very specific read on this opponent. His 3 bet % is slightly high but even at 10% AJs out of position is not particulary strong. As played, I think it is fine and you probably are behind but with substantial equity (oviously). To me, the style of play you are exhibiting by pushing small (if that) edges this hard, will result in increasing your variance in the long run substantially. Just my opinion.

Click to expand...

By the way, please try to keep in mind that the deeper you are preflop, the more value position has. in this example being 260bb effective pre makes your four bet even worse.

Raise bigger vs limpers. 3bet stat says nothing. Maybe he 3bets polarised range vs BT-SB and value range vs EP-CO. Let him bluff postflop.

Dunno if I'm missing something but what is your other hole card besides Jd?

Sam Powers said:

HERO is dealt in CO w/ 330 BB stack.

Click to expand...

AdJd

Ok thank you. I just tried a different browser and it showed up correctly for me. I guess Opera doesn't display the cards correctly always.


A tight range I would assign to his 3 bet would be something like AA-QQ, AKs, AQs, AKo, AQo. Against that AJs doesn't look so great. So I wouldn't be inclined to 4-bet.

On the flop, given that he called your reraise, he could very easily have hit the K or have a pocket pair higher than a J. My question is, would your semibluff be enough to get him to lay down AK, QQ, KK, or AA?

I would probably check call here.You have great implied odds since your opponent most likely connected. If you hit your diamond you might stack him.

fundiver199 said:

AdJd

Click to expand...

I'm having a similar problem with Chrome... it didn't display the Ad... just the Jd. So I guess there are problems with the chrome browser on the mac too. Sorry... nothing else to add here... wonderful analysis as by the others as always.. much to learn here.