$2 NLHE Full Ring: line check with big pocket pairs V sets/flushes

AlfieAA

AlfieAA

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 17, 2012
Total posts
10,689
Awards
4
Chips
0
yeah so it never went well today with my big pocket pairs, was 8 tabling so never got too deep into hud stats for villians, instead just opted to value bet the arse out of them....but maybe thats not the way, any ideas on line checks...maybe check the river/fold?.....or is it just a cooler at this level and just keep what im doing?

poker stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2237054
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $1.94
Hero (UTG+1): $2.07
UTG+2: $3.02
MP1: $0.89
MP2: $1.67
CO: $2.24
BTN: $2.75
SB: $2.92
BB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG+1 with A
club.gif
A
diamond.gif

UTG raises to $0.04, Hero raises to $0.12, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.12, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.39) 6
club.gif
2
spade.gif
J
heart.gif
(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP2 raises to $0.56, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.28

Turn: ($1.51) 9
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.72, MP2 raises to $0.99, Hero calls $0.27

River: ($3.49) T
heart.gif
(2 players)

Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 2237057
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $1.77
UTG: $2.86
UTG+1: $2.20
MP: $0.80
CO: $2.54
BTN: $3.66
Hero (SB): $3.43

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with A
diamond.gif
A
spade.gif

UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.04, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.28) 9
club.gif
3
club.gif
8
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.68) 3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.48, UTG+1 calls $0.48

River: ($1.64) K
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.18, UTG+1 calls $1.18
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
At that level villains are terrible and can have all kinds of worse. Just keep doing what you're doing.
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 17, 2012
Total posts
10,689
Awards
4
Chips
0
Thanks aleski, yeah pretty much will keep going to value town but looking back on the first hand I could have maybe got away from it when villian raises OTF...when LAP bet out like that they usually have 1 pair beat.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
Thanks aleski, yeah pretty much will keep going to value town but looking back on the first hand I could have maybe got away from it when villian raises OTF...when LAP bet out like that they usually have 1 pair beat.
You could have looked to slow down, but not give it up. You still have 5 outs to counterfeit a 2-pair on the turn and 8 on the river, and he just minraised so you had good odds to peel and reevaluate. Sets are just so, SO rare they barely rate considering.
 
LD1977

LD1977

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Total posts
3,091
Chips
0
Dunno about sets being rare. Consider that pretty much EVERY pocket pair anyone has sees the flop and sets fall 1 out of 8 times or so.

Thing is, you don't see them at showdowns nearly as much as they are actually there 'cause people fold to aggression.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Total posts
1,058
Chips
0
H1: Ask yourself this. What are you trying to achieve when donking the turn after he min-raises the flop.

H2: It's 2nl, raise more PF as you are OOP and villain is a fish and quite deep. I would go ~$0.18.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Total posts
1,058
Chips
0
You could have looked to slow down, but not give it up. You still have 5 outs to counterfeit a 2-pair on the turn and 8 on the river, and he just minraised so you had good odds to peel and reevaluate. Sets are just so, SO rare they barely rate considering.

Sets are uncommon yes, but not rare. 1:9 chance (presuming villain only see's flop) isn't that rare once you multi-table. Also when a villain raises you the likely-hood of them having a set just dramatically increased.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
Dunno about sets being rare. Consider that pretty much EVERY pocket pair anyone has sees the flop and sets fall 1 out of 8 times or so.

Thing is, you don't see them at showdowns nearly as much as they are actually there 'cause people fold to aggression.

Sets are uncommon yes, but not rare. 1:9 chance (presuming villain only see's flop) isn't that rare once you multi-table. Also when a villain raises you the likely-hood of them having a set just dramatically increased.
Consider how uncommon pocket pairs are.

Now consider the fact that when one card is on the board (or in your hand), it reduces the statistical probability of two iterations of that card being in someone's hand in half.

In reality, people will flop sets only once every 144 hands dealt assuming every PP they're dealt sees a flop. since a good player will never see flops with every PP they'll flop a set once every like 300 hands or so.

Combinatorically speaking, in a completed, unpaired, 3-flush/3-straight board with one Broadway there are:

55 flushes
48 straights
15 sets
36 top two
90 2pairs total
64 Broadway top pairs/Broadway kicker (assuming single-Broadway board).

Plus dozens (sometimes over a hundred depending on how wide Villain's range is) combos that miss the board completely -- not to mention that if they're tight they'll have less combos that connect than seen above (like, in a Q72 flop a CO opener will have a single 2-pair rather than three, or in a 3-flush board they'll have like 20 flushes or less if all their suited hands are coordinated or nutty). See why aejones decided it was profitable to assume no one ever has shit? I mean, obviously that's not strictly true (the more aggro you are the stronger people's ranges are at showdown), but people just don't have monsters as often as you think they do.

Yes, the more hands you see the more frequently statistical freak coolers will happen, but they're still statistical freak coolers -- weaker ranges will happen much more often unless your villain is a silly nit.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Hand 1 is a cooler I likely size the flop smaller as it's a dry 3bet pot and we should get stacks in very easily here, don't donk the turn here, if he's bluffing we want him to continue, if he was raising mediocre value for information or something daft we can easily shove the river if he checks back.

Hand 2 3bet bigger pre, your OOP 3x is too small.
Assuming villain is unknown I like check/calling the river, there is loads of Acx and even JT whilst hardly any Kx and we may even see folds from pairs below Kx. If villain is a big fish ignore this and shove. Don't mind either line, if your beat it's a cooler once again.
 
Nathan Williams

Nathan Williams

Poker Pro
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 13, 2011
Total posts
1,095
Awards
3
Chips
10
Raise more preflop in both hands. Get it in on the flop in hand #1. Hand #2 is fine.
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 17, 2012
Total posts
10,689
Awards
4
Chips
0
thanks everyone, all points noted down :)
 
Full Flush Poker
Top