$2 NLHE Full Ring: Lead, check-raise or check-call flop with top pair and nut flush draw?

T

Tricky123bet

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$2 NLHE Full Ring: Lead, check-raise or check-call flop with top pair and nut flush draw?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/23/3

pokerstars - $0.02 Ante $0.01 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 91 BB (VPIP: 29.76, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, hands: 84)
CO: 95.5 BB (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BTN: 148 BB (VPIP: 32.35, PFR: 22.55, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 102)
SB: 156.5 BB (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 11.37, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 213)
BB: 90.5 BB (VPIP: 19.72, PFR: 11.16, 3Bet Preflop: 3.26, Hands: 432)
UTG: 64 BB (VPIP: 31.03, PFR: 5.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
UTG+1: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 35.56, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 90)
MP: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 25.26, PFR: 16.58, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 194)
Hero (MP+1): 250 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 9 players post ante of 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 6 BB) Hero has Td Ad
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop : (20 BB, 2 players) Ah 5d 6d
Hero checks, BTN bets 13 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, BTN raises to 140.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 105.5 BB

Turn : (301 BB, 2 players) 2h

River : (301 BB, 2 players) Kc

Hero shows Td Ad (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 32%, Flop 48%, Turn 27%)

BTN shows As Jc (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 52%, Turn 73%)

BTN wins 290.5 BB

Note that this is a table with antes.

So on the flop I have to choose from leading, check-raising or check-calling. Which one would you choose and why? Which option do you not like?

I chose to check-raise and call a shove. I wasn't sure about the call afterwards, but looking it up in an equity calculator I can see that I have around 48% against all the better aces AK, AQ, AJ, A6 and A5, which is a total of 36 combos. There are at most 7 combos that crush me, AA, 66 and 55 where I have a little less than 30%. I have about 45% equity against this range of 43 combos and I need 35% for a call, making it +EV.

Interesting to hear what you think.
 
Romario2223

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Call flop and check/fold river
 
weldphaser

weldphaser

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your totally fine w/ the way you played here man.

Though im not sure if A6 is in his pre 3b range. yeah he seems lagish, but we only have 106 hands so his 3b% is probably a bit skewed. otherwise yeah your looking good.

if he is c/r AI OTF w/ TP which it kinda looks like he did. take a note that he may be 3b'ing post light.
 
weldphaser

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Call flop and check/fold river

i guess might be better line, but i also like c/r flop with NFD. at least some % of the time.

oh don't post results bro, don't get into the habit of posting results
 
Aces2w1n

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bare in mind its best to be more aggressive oop cuz once the flush is out there. Its less likely to get paid

AP its fine just remember flop flips is high variance
 
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braveslice

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I don’t see any reason to play this hand but the way @Romario said. Yes, in a way you can’t really play this hand wrong, so anything you do is right.

You already have TP-sometimes good kicker for win in NL2 so check raising you are really trying to fold his good aces, which will never work in 2NL, but also you are folding his some/many worse hands than yours. If he has an ace he often calls your one bet even after you have the flush, also if the hand goes passive you can always value bet your top pair, (and if he is aggressive he loves to barrel with non top pair and also when the flush hits he loves to show he has it)

Against fish your play would be much better imo, he would call any sorts of funny hands, many already behind your hand.
 
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TheBigFinn

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Button is 3 betting 9% of his hands, making the call preflop almost mandatory, IMHO. On the flop you have TP OK Kicker, but are losing to a bunch of better hands. The question I have is what worse hands did you expect to call when you 3bet the flop. What hands did you think you were ahead of when he put you all in?
 
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16clumsyandshy

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Button is 3 betting 9% of his hands, making the call preflop almost mandatory, IMHO.

Be careful to not be deceived here, since we only have 102 hands.

Aces2w1n makes a good point about not being able to get value by check calling when the flush hits, but thats something we have to live with I think, we just aren't ahead of many aces, and we are losing a lot of value if he folds rather than continues to bet with his bluffs (possibly other flush draws also.)
 
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Tricky123bet

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Be careful to not be deceived here, since we only have 102 hands.

Aces2w1n makes a good point about not being able to get value by check calling when the flush hits, but thats something we have to live with I think, we just aren't ahead of many aces, and we are losing a lot of value if he folds rather than continues to bet with his bluffs (possibly other flush draws also.)

So if I decide to check-call flop instead, turn comes the 2h as in the example, I check, and they bet around 75% OTT, then what do I do? It's waaay more likely for them to have AK, AQ, AJ than flush draws at this point, so unless I get good enough pot odds it's just a fold OTT, am I correct?

Also I seem to understand why leading is a bad option now. It will just fold out all their cbet bluffs (except the flush draws). But if I would have had KQ of diamonds instead in the same example? check-raise, check-call or lead?
 
TheBigFinn

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Aces2w1n makes a good point about not being able to get value by check calling when the flush hits said:
I agree you have to fold if the flush hits AND he bets. He is afraid of the flush too and may just check back. IMHO, he has a medium strength hand OOP which would like to get to the river cheap. When one is OOP one needs to think small rather than playing for stacks with a medium kick to an Ace. There are so many better aces the villain can have and few worse. Check raising the flop folds some of his bluffs, weak aces, keeps in his good aces which hero is losing too and flush draws which are flipping.
 
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Grinder888

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Fold pre in MP as AT is a major RIO hand and suited just adds around 4%. Our 2bet pre seems smallish which gives villain more incentive to 3 bet in position and his 3bet is also on the lower side. Idk, if I opened I might even be inclined for a 4bet here OOP since V has a high 3bet% (adjusting to the fact that its only 100 or so hands, I would still check the numerator & denominator on those stats)

As played OOP I would go for pot control. Yes we have major equity with TPOK + NFD and can go for stacks here but its just about how much variance we are comfortable accepting. As for me I like to minimize the variance and check this hand down with even going for value on river if he shuts down.

As played (imho) pre is a bit loose and flop is okay either way.
 
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