$2 NLHE Full Ring: KQs in the CO - min check raise on the flop

J

Jreece18

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888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 230 BB (VPIP: 45.00, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, hands: 40)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 145.5 BB (VPIP: 11.32, PFR: 7.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
UTG+1: 42 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
MP: 44.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 35)
Hero (CO): 111.5 BB
BTN: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 5.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:diamond: Q:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) K:club: A:diamond: 5:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (32.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 20 BB, BB calls 20 BB

River: (72.5 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 33 BB, BB calls 33 BB

Hero shows K:diamond: Q:diamond: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 29%, Flop 43%, Turn 28%)
BB mucks A:spade: Q:spade: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 71%, Flop 57%, Turn 72%)
Hero wins 130 BB

I think I played all streets well, however unsure if I got max value with the small(ish) river bet. My thought process was he was scared that flush draws hit, however I'm not sure if it's worth just betting bigger at 2NL with the premise that most villains won't be able to let go of their hand? Seems like he could've just been in check/call mode.
 
J

Jreece18

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I saw that as possibly -EV.. Although I didn't have a read, I assumed the min check/raise followed by a check showed weakness - I thought he just bluffed taking a stab at the pot.

Is a turn bet bad either way? I was kinda semi bluffing due to picking up the extra outs and inflating the pot for a larger river bet if I hit. If it was 6h for example, I'd have checked behind
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Yes, turn bet is not that great. His range here is most likely weak aces or AQ that is scared of the K and J. Maybe a K, but not likely. He's not folding an ace here. Full-ring I think people play a lot nittier and aren't min-raising 88-QQ/Kx "to see where they are at." Most commonly I see TP/set type of hands.

You're betting the turn as a semi-bluff, but you really don't have any fold equity. A bet as a semi-bluff is only profitable is if we have fold equity. We either bet strictly for value or as a bluff. Here, we're not getting called by a worse hand, and we can't fold out better hands. We don't bet to inflate the pot if we hit, to see where we are at, etc. I don't expect a lot of people to fold to a second barrel with a lone Ace here, and I don't like the idea of shutting down IP OTR if we miss or firing the third barrel and praying that he folds an Ace. He checked, so take the free card.
 
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