$2 NLHE Full Ring: KK on Wet Board HU IP

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TheCourtesyFlush

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/6/1.6

Villain stats are for 1.6k hands. I think I know where I made my error, but I'm very new to hand reading and poker math, so I could use a check to make sure I'm on the right track.

I'm going to post my hand review in a comment to this post. If anybody has the time, I'd love a review of my review as well. It's pretty detailed (I think) and does contain spoilers.

Thanks for any advice.


WPN, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $1.49 (74.5 bb)
BB: $2.03 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $2.30 (115 bb)
MP2: $2.07 (103.5 bb)
MP3: $3.82 (191 bb)
Hero (CO): $2.42 (121 bb)
BTN: $2.03 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.39) Q 3 6 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP3 calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.95) J (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.68, MP3 raises to $3.36 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.28 and is all-in

River: ($4.87) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
 
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TheCourtesyFlush

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Here's my review. It's the first I've done with hand reading / relevant stats / starting to learn the math. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. Things I'm missing, things I'm doing wrong, incorrect calculations, etc.
    • Villain:
      • 12/6/1.6 [NIT] over 1.6k hands
    • Preflop
      • Villain OR 3bb
      • Hero 3bets 9bb BTN w/ KK
      • Villain Calls [Fold-to-3bet: 50%]
        • Est. Range
          • PP [TT+]
          • Suited [AJs+, KJs+, QJs]
          • Off-suit [AQo+]
    • Flop [Qh 3d 6d]
      • Equity
        • Estimate (53%), Actual (69%)
      • Line
        • Villain checks
        • Hero c-bets 66% pot for value [Break-even %: 67]
        • Villain calls 29% pot odds w/ 31% equity [Fold-to-flop-Cbet: 56%, Flop Continue Frequency: 48%, Automatically profitable based on BE% > Flop-continuing frequency?]
          • Bet sizing issue?
            • Flush draw has 36% equity
            • AA have 90% equity
        • Villain Range Est.
          • PP[QQ, KK, AA]
          • Suited[AJd, AQd, AKd, KJd, KQd, QJs]
          • Off-suit[AQo]
    • Turn J♥
      • Line
        • Villain checks
        • Hero bets 3/4 pot for value [Break-even %: 41]
        • Villain raises AI [Turn-continuation: 57%, Fold-to-Turn-C-bet: 60%]
          • Villain Range Est.
            • PP[AA, KK, QQ]
            • Suited[QJs, KQd]
            • Unsuited[]
        • Hero calls (26% pot odds w/ 48% equity)
    • River 9♥
    • Summary
      • Cut the JJ on the flop, didn't think he'd call with middle pair or pocket pair below top pair. Even with middle pair [JJ], he had the equity to call.
      • The turn bet all in should have told me he had better than a pair.
    • General Principals
      • Large bets, especially from nits, and later street bets generally indicate 2 pair+. Calling with an overpair probably not advised.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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Preflop. i like to 3-bet bigger.

Flop: Sometimes it is important to remember that, at its base, poker is a game of cards. You simply can't expect to size out certain hands like AA (and JJ, i am assuming that is what he had?) I think that if he calls 2/3, he will call pot-sized.

Turn, yuck! don't like this spot at all. It all depends on 1 question: is villain capable of a massive c-raise with a draw/combo draw? If so, call. If not, i just fold 2nd overpair and rebuy. (I might be a nit but i really can't see what we beat here?? Draws?)

Overall, the one comment i want to make is about your ranges. You basically have him nailed to 5 hands on the turn. Yeah, your analysis and why you think about these five hands makes sense, but some villains just can't lay down something shiny pre... JJ, TT, 99, AKs, stuff like that he peels a street with just because he thinks "It would be a shame to fold such a good hand." We can't assume, even at big games, that our opponents are all 2nd and 3rd level thinkers who play GTO poker.

I am not bothered at all with how you played the hand, i think gii on the turn is maybe playing wish poker but i can't fault yu if villain ever has a draw or AQ.
 
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panost

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I don't like to call turn raise without at least top two pairs or a good draw if i have the odds.
Post flop why you give him all combos of AA, KK, QQ and AK? Don't you think he 4b those hands preflop?
I can't see him raise ott with KQd, i believe probably he raises otf or never.
I don't believe he folds JJ otf.
 
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Gabe16

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$2 NLHE Full Ring: KK on Wet Board HU IP

I like how much effort into your analysis you put. I think you’ll find some of it isn’t as needed, things to consider, spr and range advantage.

A nit by nature is very likely to 4B aa, kk and a large % of qq. And will be well within his right to call the cb with jj. In fact folding jj their is a mistake unless your also pretty nitty.

We can safely fold to a nit when he shoves, it’s safe to say it’s better than one pair. But we have a few things to consider first.

First our pot odds:

Roughly 2.8/1 27%ish

Does villain value bet worse hands? No

Does villain have any air in his range? Nit so unlikely

Does villain represent better hands? Yeah

Player tells/ player type tells/player pool tells? Nit, shoves are nutted.

We can fold!
 
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TheCourtesyFlush

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Thanks all, that's really helpful.

I'm not fast enough to do the hand reading at the table yet, so that was all during the review. I plan to add to the reviews slowly so I can learn one or two things at a time. I'm doing equity / Pot odds and Hand Reading now. I'll add SPR next, along with combos. I know how to calculate it, but I don't know their effects on my strategy yet. Lots to learn.

Thanks again, I really appreciate it.
 
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