$2 NLHE Full Ring: KK vs. a scary board and an unknown

LD1977

LD1977

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MP2: $2.36
Hero (CO): $4.83
BTN: $12.27
SB: $2.05
BB: $5.85
UTG: $5.09
UTG+1: $5.00
UTG+2: $2.86
MP1: $4.55

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with K :heart: K :diamond:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.27) J :club: T :heart: 9 :club: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.27, UTG+1 calls $1.27

Turn: ($3.81) K :spade: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.81) 4 :club: (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.13 all in, Hero calls $2.96 all in

UTG+1 is 20 / 11 / 3 (47%) over 35 hands and no reads.

I know this looks like a spew but after seeing how people play I decided to treat every unknown as a complete muppet.

On the flop he might have a set (JJ is likely, maybe TT) or a pair + OESD, but I figured him for an AK/AQs. No way he has a straight yet unless he is a retard considering preflop call of 3bet (not impossible though).

Turn complicates things since now a Queen is dangerous and he would check it for sure, so I take a free card and setup a bluffcatch on the river.

River sucks ass since he could have Axs (clubs) and not only a Queen... but he also bluffs here a lot.

1. Call or fold river? I suck at counting combos, lets say he bluffs here 100% of the time since the board is perfect for it.

P.S. Erm, 5NL. Everything else is the same.
 
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dooydoo

dooydoo

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Id fold here. I dont think theres enough bluffs or worse in his range here to call.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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I don't see why you should be calling this river ever, the flush draw is much more scary than the 4 to a straight here as it means he has more possible value hands and his bluffing isn't as polarized as if there was no flush on board.. Also he isn't bluffing enough to profitably call here ever. Looks like he has the flush with this bet hoping that you have a Q.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Lets consider his possible combos that arrived to the flop -> turn-> river based on his stats (lets assume stats are somewhat in the ballpark despite small sample), and lets assume he always bets river with his entire range because why not, I checked turn so he is gonna take a shot at it since I have the nuts a very small % of the time.

How many of those hands beat me? 30%, 50%, 70%?

He holds :ad4::9d4: for a pair of Nines
 
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