$2 NLHE Full Ring: KK gets shoved into on a FD flop, can be a set or a FD... call?

LD1977

LD1977

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$2 NLHE Full Ring: KK gets shoved into on a FD flop, can be a set or a FD... call?

BTN: $0.80
SB: $2.01
BB: $1.16
UTG: $1.15
UTG+1: $0.80
UTG+2: $2.00
MP1: $0.96
Hero (MP2): $2.00
CO: $2.32

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP2 with K :spade: K :club:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, SB calls $0.19, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.14

Flop: ($0.62) J :diamond: 2 :diamond: 5 :heart: (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.62, SB raises to $1.81 all in, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $1.18 all in

Turn: ($4.22) 9 :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($4.22) A :spade: (2 players - 2 are all in)

SB is 16 / 5 / 1.5 (22%) over 150 hands, no 3-bet stats (I guess he 3-bets rarely but can't be sure, how often he even has the chance with 5% raise :p)

Anyway, once more I hate life when I get this line from a player I have no notes/reads on :mad:

Many people do this with a nut FD (if he cold calls .19 with something like ATs-AKs) and of course a set can do this if he dislikes a FD board.

1. Is it correct to call, considering he is unknown?
2. If the world's biggest nit shoves, then I suppose I must fold, no? Sets have 90% equity over me here.

Edit:
3. Lets say this is a call, at which stack size it gets borderline (150bb, 200bb...)?
 
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BvBrMTW

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I would definetly call here, don't forget it's 2nl.
I think you'd often be up against AJ or something like that in these spots.
J's therefore could be his hand, but AKd and AJ are also.

There are 4 hands that beat you here, AA,JJ,22,55 , (AA is really unlikely) so it's a call 100% of the time,
His stats tell us he's a bad player, and these players tend to push any TP, even tho they are nitty pre-flop.
plus it's only 1.18 into a 3$ pot, so you are definetly getting the right odds to call here.

So yea, never fold it Imo
 
c9h13no3

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In 3-bet pots, stack JJ+ when they're overpairs.
 
RodneyC86

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In 3-bet pots, stack JJ+ when they're overpairs.

Hate my life when I run into set miners though...
I know my 3betting AK is a defensive move against set mining profitably against me but can someone show me the math to comfort my nitty mind? :p
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Hate my life when I run into set miners though...
I know my 3betting AK is a defensive move against set mining profitably against me but can someone show me the math to comfort my nitty mind? :p

They flop a set 12% of the time. If you three-bet to 12 big blinds, it will cost them 12 to win 88, or 7.33:1 implied odds. They'll make a set 1:7.33 times. So if you give them your stack EVERY TIME they make a set, you will break even.

However, you won't always stack off. AK will sometimes miss the flop. An A will come out when you have KK. Or maybe you'll draw out and make a bigger set or a straight. So don't be worried about people who set mine. Usually sets are such a small portion of their range, that you can just discount them. Against a range of QQ, JJ, 55, 22, and AdKd, you have 42% equity. Given the money in the pot, that's plenty.
 
RodneyC86

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They flop a set 12% of the time. If you three-bet to 12 big blinds, it will cost them 12 to win 88, or 7.33:1 implied odds. They'll make a set 1:7.33 times. So if you give them your stack EVERY TIME they make a set, you will break even.

However, you won't always stack off. AK will sometimes miss the flop. An A will come out when you have KK. Or maybe you'll draw out and make a bigger set or a straight. So don't be worried about people who set mine. Usually sets are such a small portion of their range, that you can just discount them. Against a range of QQ, JJ, 55, 22, and AdKd, you have 42% equity. Given the money in the pot, that's plenty.

Thing is I 3bet to 9BB, do I then 3bet known nit set miners a tad bit bigger?
 
XXPXXP

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i definitely call here!
since small blinds might have like AKs, QQ, JJ. and ocassionally AJ something like that.

I don't think he could profitable call 22 here preflop, maybe 55.

yeah, for me, call probabally better.
 
LD1977

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He had JJ, unfortunately... but yeah, his call is pretty borderline here by itself.

Unless he plans to bluff shove every flop with an Ace, then it is maybe getting profitable... although I would be suspicious since only AK would maybe cold call 0.19.
 
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