$2 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs monotone board

M

Mcadieux

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 78/15/2.3

Wondering if I should fire on the turn, and if this was an ok spot to cbet the flop. MP1 was very loose 78/15/2.3 over 30 hands. The CO was a nit regular.

Poker Stars - $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $5.09
BB: $1.67
UTG: $0.76
MP Hero: $1.99
MP+1: $2.46
MP+2: $0.74
LP: $5.04
CO: $0.96
BTN: $1.37

Pre-flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP and dealt :js4: :jh4:
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises $0.10, MP+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, UTG folds

Flop: ($0.35) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.27, MP+1 calls $0.27, CO folds

Turn: ($0.89) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: :4s4: (2 players)
Hero ???

Should I fire again here, and try to push him out hoping he only is holding 1 diamond?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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You should certainly bet again on the turn but not to try to "push him out". You want him to make a mistake, in this case you want him to call when he should fold. If he has a single big diamond he's got ~20 equity so you really don't need to bet much to make calling a mistake BUT he's horrible and is probably willing to call another bigish bet to try to catch on the river so I'd bet close to full pot (if you think he'll call a shove go for that).
 
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RamdeeBen

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Nice insight Billy I've got a few questions thought.

I've always wondered about boards like this with a loose player. The thing is, there is a straight draw possibility and flush on board so I'd of been inclined to check the turn.

These sort of players if a dangerous card hits the river and get you wondering will often ship it and well what would you do at this point? And are you serious at a shove on the turn? I mean what could he possibly be calling with? There's so much he could have that has you beat already don't you think?

These are probarly the sort of boards I could go bust on as I don't like letting go of top pair against a loose player yet I thought this would be classed as reckless play against a loose player to shove. This is where I might have a leak and losing a bit of money and of course losing money on quad board with a 2 kicker.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Nice insight Billy I've got a few questions thought.

I've always wondered about boards like this with a loose player. The thing is, there is a straight draw possibility and flush on board so I'd of been inclined to check the turn.

These sort of players if a dangerous card hits the river and get you wondering will often ship it and well what would you do at this point? And are you serious at a shove on the turn? I mean what could he possibly be calling with? There's so much he could have that has you beat already don't you think?

Dead serious about shipping the turn, it's not even that much of an overbet here. We have $1.62 left and the pot is .89. Shoving for twice the pot needs to work about 67% of the time and considering that he probably folds more than that it's certainly profitable (add in the times he calls with a hand like Kd9s or Td9h and it's a big money maker). Now the question is if it's THE MOST profitable way to play the hand? The answer is probably not because he may fold a few hands to a shove that he would call a pot sized bet with.

To your other point about the numerous draws available if you bet pot on the turn you just have to pay off pretty much any river with these stack sizes but that's OK. By getting him to call on the turn you can pay off on the river and the turn bet is still +EV because stacks aren't deep enough to worry about giving him good implied odds. If stacks were deeper you should probably call any non-diamond river that way you're only paying off when he hits his over or makes some random straight on the river.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Dead serious about shipping the turn, it's not even that much of an overbet here. We have $1.62 left and the pot is .89. Shoving for twice the pot needs to work about 67% of the time and considering that he probably folds more than that it's certainly profitable (add in the times he calls with a hand like Kd9s or Td9h and it's a big money maker). Now the question is if it's THE MOST profitable way to play the hand? The answer is probably not because he may fold a few hands to a shove that he would call a pot sized bet with.

To your other point about the numerous draws available if you bet pot on the turn you just have to pay off pretty much any river with these stack sizes but that's OK. By getting him to call on the turn you can pay off on the river and the turn bet is still +EV because stacks aren't deep enough to worry about giving him good implied odds. If stacks were deeper you should probably call any non-diamond river that way you're only paying off when he hits his over or makes some random straight on the river.

Wow. Ok , this is definitely a leak in my game then. I've often folded to a shove on a turn or river with boards like this, if for example I have an over pair like the jacks. Say he was drawing and calling down with A or K high and hits one are you still calling a shove on the river? I often find these donks will 90% of the time be playing and calling down all day with A or K high and when it hits the river I won't call it. Are you saying I'm possibly incorrect and it's deffo a +ev spot to call and river bet to an over card to your pair?


This is kind off subject to this post (sorry OP) another perfect example though. 10's/Jacks/Queens and you raise up and get flat called by a loose player. The board has a higher card than your pair, you put in a bet and get called or re-raised, what are you doing here? Isn't this the same principle where you would think "ok well he must of called a bet on the flop with a high card most times" IF you're betting and being called down surely this can't be +EV ? If this make sense I know it sounds like I'm dribbling on here but I'd like to know your thoughts on a pocket pair and a higher card hitting the board and you're being called down or raised. Isn't this the same sort of principle to paying them off?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Completely different scenarios. In this hand if we bet say .80 and get called there will be .82 cents in our stack and $2.70 in the pot. We can't fold on the river.

If we open and get called and then get raised with an overcard on board we should generally fold unless stacks are really shallow. Why? Because most bad players call too much so when they raise it's generally with a really strong hand. Also if we're in position we usually shouldn't be betting with a single overcard on the flop.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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He's not saying you should shove he's saying if you think he'll call it then you should. There are straight and flush possibilities yes but its unlikely he flopped a flush(i think three odds are like 1 in 121 you'll flop it), the straight hasn't come out yet, also sets are a little less likely because the other four came out(which makes him having pocket 4s less likely), you're most certainly ahead and we can confidently put him on a draw, over cards, maybe an 8 or9 so net when you're ahead and get value from his draws/ weak hands.
 
M

Mcadieux

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Thanks for all the advice. Here is the result, I check called the turn, and shoved on the river. Looking back I figured I should have fired the turn.

Poker Stars - $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $5.09
BB: $1.67
UTG: $0.76
MP Hero: $1.99
MP+1: $2.46
MP+2: $0.74
LP: $5.04
CO: $0.96
BTN: $1.37

Pre-flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP and dealt :js4: :jh4:
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises $0.10, MP+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, UTG folds

Flop: ($0.35) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.27, MP+1 calls $0.27, CO folds

Turn: ($0.89) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: :4s4: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $0.58, Hero calls $0.58

River: ($2.05) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: :4s4: :6c4: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.04 (All-in), MP+1 folds, Hero returned $1.04

Final Pot: $2.05

Showdown:
Hero mucks his hand
Outcome: Hero wins $1.95
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Thanks for all the advice. Here is the result, I check called the turn, and shoved on the river. Looking back I figured I should have fired the turn.

Poker Stars - $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $5.09
BB: $1.67
UTG: $0.76
MP Hero: $1.99
MP+1: $2.46
MP+2: $0.74
LP: $5.04
CO: $0.96
BTN: $1.37

Pre-flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP and dealt :js4: :jh4:
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises $0.10, MP+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, UTG folds

Flop: ($0.35) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.27, MP+1 calls $0.27, CO folds

Turn: ($0.89) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: :4s4: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $0.58, Hero calls $0.58

River: ($2.05) :9d4: :4d4: :6d4: :4s4: :6c4: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.04 (All-in), MP+1 folds, Hero returned $1.04

Final Pot: $2.05

Showdown:
Hero mucks his hand
Outcome: Hero wins $1.95
Actually, if you think he'll bet his draws on the turn like that, a turn ch/raise would be better than a turn bet. I would likely still just bet the turn for fear of villain taking a free card and then folding the river when he misses but once you check and he bets the turn I shove over his bet all day.
 
C

ComplexPlaya

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Actually, if you think he'll bet his draws on the turn like that, a turn ch/raise would be better than a turn bet. I would likely still just bet the turn for fear of villain taking a free card and then folding the river when he misses but once you check and he bets the turn I shove over his bet all day.

Well I think there are more combos of 9x and 6x that will call but not bet the turn probably. Might be some air like overcards that bet thinking that 4 scared us but probably not enough to go for the c/r (plus he might not always bet draws either, just sometimes)
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Well I think there are more combos of 9x and 6x that will call but not bet the turn probably. Might be some air like overcards that bet thinking that 4 scared us but probably not enough to go for the c/r (plus he might not always bet draws either, just sometimes)

I agree. I think it's a clear bet on the turn. I'm just saying that once he checked the turn, I would have ch/raised.
 
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