Originally Posted by ramdeebam
Nice insight Billy I've got a few questions thought.
I've always wondered about boards like this with a loose player. The thing is, there is a straight draw possibility and flush on board so I'd of been inclined to check the turn.
These sort of players if a dangerous card hits the river and get you wondering will often ship it and well what would you do at this point? And are you serious at a shove on the turn? I mean what could he possibly be calling with? There's so much he could have that has you beat already don't you think?
Dead serious about shipping the turn, it's not even that much of an overbet here. We have $1.62 left and the pot is .89. Shoving for twice the pot needs to work about 67% of the time and considering that he probably folds more than that it's certainly profitable (add in the times he calls with a hand like Kd9s or Td9h and it's a big money maker). Now the question is if it's THE MOST profitable way to play the hand? The answer is probably not because he may fold a few hands to a shove that he would call a pot sized bet with.
To your other point about the numerous draws available if you bet pot on the turn you just have to pay off pretty much any river with these stack sizes but that's OK. By getting him to call on the turn you can pay off on the river and the turn bet is still +EV because stacks aren't deep enough to worry about giving him good implied odds
. If stacks were deeper you should probably call any non-diamond river that way you're only paying off when he hits his over or makes some random straight on the river.