$2 NLHE Full Ring: JJ faces very wet board, makes OESD on turn vs fish

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 37/1/1

I'm playing OOP vs a super fish (37/1/1). He calls my flop bet, and the turn puts the flush on the board but also gives me a OESD w/ a pair.

What can I give the fish credit for if he bets here? Do I have to NOT count my draw outs bc of the possible flush (let alone higher straight)? With a AF of 1, I'm inclined to say a bet means he got there, even if we went in w/ any two hearts. With a VPIP of 37, Stove is saying if he holds at least one heart I'm ~41% to win.

Let's say it's we check and a blank comes one the river? Do I get there? I never seem to get this kind of play right vs fish who play ATC in this kind of situation.

full tilt poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $3.14
BTN: $1.51
SB: $0.81
BB: $2.31
UTG: $2.06
Hero (UTG+1): $2.08
MP1: $1.24
MP2: $1.52

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG+1 with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.19) 8 K Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, BTN calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.47) T (2 players)
Hero ???

c/f. draws got there and two overs

If there's a guy at the table that calls any raise, raise more pre like .12-14. As played i might c/c turn depending on bet size and if we hit the straight proceed cautiously

bgomez89 said:

As played i might c/c turn depending on bet size and if we hit the straight proceed cautiously

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Drawing to a hand where we need to "proceed cautiously" if we hit sounds like a money loser to me.

c9h13no3 said:

Drawing to a hand where we need to "proceed cautiously" if we hit sounds like a money loser to me.

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Can you explain? I have a feeling I'm missing something.

rowhousepd said:

Can you explain? I have a feeling I'm missing something.

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You are not winning money in the long run if, even after you hit your draw, you are still not sure that you have the best hand. If there is that much doubt, just throw it away and save getting in trouble when your straight comes on the river and you can't value bet cause you are scared of a 3 or 4 card flush.

takethepain said:

You are not winning money in the long run if, even after you hit your draw, you are still not sure that you have the best hand. If there is that much doubt, just throw it away and save getting in trouble when your straight comes on the river and you can't value bet cause you are scared of a 3 or 4 card flush.

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Also the flip side to that is that when scare cards come out nobody is happy about putting more money in the pot unless they have a good flush.

brank said:

Also the flip side to that is that when scare cards come out nobody is happy about putting more money in the pot unless they have a good flush.

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Gotcha. Kool. Thanks.

brank said:

Also the flip side to that is that when scare cards come out nobody is happy about putting more money in the pot unless they have a good flush.

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Realistically though, are people really even that sophisticated to 2NL -- should I be bluffing when scare cards come at the micros? I keep reading that we really shouldn't.

Tyler69 said:

c/f. draws got there and two overs

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is this wrong?

Wait so what actually was the outcome of this hand? did you fold?

TheGenera1 said:

Wait so what actually was the outcome of this hand? did you fold?

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I might as well tell you all the end of hand bc the river did actually make it interesting. (Though I still made a donk move):

TURN ($0.47) T

Hero checks, BTN checks

RIVER ($0.47) J

Hero bets $0.47, BTN calls $0.47

BTN shows 3 6
Hero shows Set if Jacks
BTN wins $1.32

In my defense, the idiot didn't bet or raise once w/ the flush. But I think a check call would have been in order on the river.

Tyler69 said:

is this wrong?

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No it's right

Intersting play; I like the bet you made from UTG+1. you were able to thin the field really good and isolate it between you and the fish. Now is this why you made the bet this size? You know he plays junk most of the time from any position. so the flop comes with two over cards and 2 hears. I like your post flop bet. Looks like your representing that King or Queen and just trying to take it down right there. but when he calls. thats interesting. oest re-raise. He just calls then a draw for both you and him on the turn.
What i think I would do here; is kinda back off. I mean you did great with the aggression preflop and post flop but with that turn. I really think i would just back off here maybe check and fold to any more bets. Sure you got the open ended draw, but even if has one heart in his hand. I would hate for one more heart to come on the the river. Or even if the river comes and makes some unlike two pair....Say he holds like some junk hand like K 7 offsuit then a seven comes on the river.
i just think that you cant outplay him after the flop..hes dumb and doesnt know when to fold and like if i said he may have top pair weak kicker and might even pair that week kicker our get lucky and catch another heart

Benjamin5566 said:

Intersting play; I like the bet you made from UTG+1. you were able to thin the field really good and isolate it between you and the fish. Now is this why you made the bet this size?

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I almost always make it 4xbb + 1/limper ... unless I have specific reads on people or am at a very loose or very tight table.

What i think I would do here; is kinda back off. I mean you did great with the aggression preflop and post flop but with that turn. I really think i would just back off here maybe check and fold to any more bets. Sure you got the open ended draw, but even if has one heart in his hand. I would hate for one more heart to come on the the river. Or even if the river comes and makes some unlike two pair....Say he holds like some junk hand like K 7 offsuit then a seven comes on the river.
i just think that you cant outplay him after the flop..hes dumb and doesnt know when to fold and like if i said he may have top pair weak kicker and might even pair that week kicker our get lucky and catch another heart

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Yeah. I did check the turn and figured he'd raise if he made it, but in hindsight I would have put our a blocking bet on the riv instead of trying to pot it (or value bet in case he only had TP). Thanks for the input.