$2 NLHE Full Ring: Flush + Straight draw decision

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 242 BB (VPIP: 39.56, PFR: 6.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 92)
CO: 114 BB (VPIP: 12.28, PFR: 7.60, 3Bet Preflop: 3.39, Hands: 345)
Hero (BTN): 139.5 BB
SB: 95 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
BB: 63.5 BB (VPIP: 40.48, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 42)
UTG: 94 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♠</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, BB calls 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 3 players) 7<font color='black'>♠</font> 2<font color='black'>♣</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>
BB bets 12.5 BB, MP calls 12.5 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB

Turn: (50 BB, 3 players) T<font color='black'>♣</font>
BB bets 47 BB and is all-in, MP raises to 225.5 BB and is all-in,



I was unsure if i was getting the right price to call,

MP had been spazzing out the last few hands so i knew that i would stack him if i hit on the turn and getting 3-1 i thought this was ok to call the flop.

I thought it was close on the river probably facing AK from the BB and a set from MP.

Thoughts? Thanks.

I ran this:

Board: 7s Jc Ks Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.188% 32.87% 01.32% 9690 390.00 { QsJs }
Hand 1: 30.342% 28.75% 01.59% 8478 468.00 { 77, 22, KTs, KTo }
Hand 2: 35.470% 32.56% 02.91% 9600 858.00 { AKs, K9s+, AKo, K9o+ }

I think you can call this but idk if would

Yeah I thought it was real close at the time, I ended up folding, am I bad for passing on a spot like this?

I was making money off these guys as it was and I didn't think it was worth the risk.

Yeah, I mean you probably should have called if you have the right amount of equity with the right odds. Math like this is kind of hard to figure out on the spot so it probably won't make too big of an impact and you'll probably get better at it as time goes on

Nah, fold is OK, BB is short and you are not drawing to the nut flush. Both reduce your expected winnings. In any case lower variance = good (you are not gonna get tilted).

Fold. You're not getting a good price. You would be putting in 123 BB to win 220 BB. You need 2:1 on your money.

How would people feel about hero raising post flop as a semi-bluff raise? We are on the button, so in control for next round of betting. I would reason that I had reasonably good chance of getting MP dude (who limp/called pre-flop) to fold. BB could be trouble, especially seeing as he led right out into our pre-flop raise, but we have a good draw for the semi-bluff. Good spot for this?

Questionable, he has potted (usually means an actual hand) and since there is a caller BB now has good reason to call a raise/shove.

Small donk bets are usually probing/blocking bets, fish like them. Thing is, some of them always fold to a big raise and some never do you gotta know your food.

Cheecho said:

How would people feel about hero raising post flop as a semi-bluff raise? We are on the button, so in control for next round of betting. I would reason that I had reasonably good chance of getting MP dude (who limp/called pre-flop) to fold. BB could be trouble, especially seeing as he led right out into our pre-flop raise, but we have a good draw for the semi-bluff. Good spot for this?

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BB is playing short-stacked, so I'm not confident he would fold after putting in 25%+ of his stack already. Chances are he's going to just shove the rest if hero raises. He led into the raiser on the flop with a pot-sized bet. My guess is he's got top pair or better and wants to avoid a flush.

Cheecho said:

How would people feel about hero raising post flop as a semi-bluff raise? We are on the button, so in control for next round of betting. I would reason that I had reasonably good chance of getting MP dude (who limp/called pre-flop) to fold. BB could be trouble, especially seeing as he led right out into our pre-flop raise, but we have a good draw for the semi-bluff. Good spot for this?

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I think this is a good idea at a higher level against better players.

In this situation MP is rarely going anywhere until the turn from past experience, I had been getting consistent 2-3 streets of value from him and BB wasn't much better.

I knew if I made my draw on the turn there was a good chance I would stack MP by the river. As he had been going nuts the last 4-5 hands

Mr Sandbag said:

Fold. You're not getting a good price. You would be putting in 123 BB to win 220 BB. You need 2:1 on your money.

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Pretty sure your math is off

50 BB: size of pot on turn
47 BB: BB bet on turn
123 BB: size of MP all in. He has 225 but MP is already all in and hero only has 123.

50 + 47 + 123 = 220

Hero has to put in his stack of 123 BB to win 220.

Isn't that right? Please correct if I'm wrong.

I'm pretty sure you have to add in OP's 123 which gives us almost 3-1 pot odds.

bgomez89 said:

I'm pretty sure you have to add in OP's 123 which gives us almost 3-1 pot odds.

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No. That doesn't make sense. He's risking 123 to make 220.