$2 NLHE Full Ring: Flush decision on river

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 6.67/6.67/3

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 295 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 45)
SB: 101 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
BB: 107 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: 58 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG+1: 111.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 37)
MP: 224.5 BB (VPIP: 10.98, PFR: 6.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 166)
MP+1: 192 BB (VPIP: 16.48, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 92)
Hero (MP+2): 133 BB
CO: 218 BB (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♦ K♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) T♦ 9♣ T♣
Hero bets 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB
Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN calls 8 BB
River: (30.5 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero bets 20.5 BB, BTN raises to 51 BB, Hero ???????




I don't always open with K8s from here. C bet largely hoping for a fold, although I had some backdoor draws, but perhaps against such a tight player I could have floated it. He had folded to 1 C bet already though.


On the turn could/should have checked to see if I could get to the river without paying for my draw? The hands where I find I'm probably making the biggest post flop mistakes I think I am showing aggression at the wrong times and not being range aware enough. I get caught up in wanting value, as so often at 2NL zoom it is difficult to get paid off with a big hand, nit city. I have a gut shot and a flush outs at this point, plus 2 more kings that could come down - that is a decent amount of outs and I feel like I want to build this pot for the times I hit.


Was happy to hit the flush on the river, and quite happy when he raised too. Where would you go from there? What do you think villain has? Would you put him on a straight or something else that is going to cause a bit of a headache?



I concede looking at Equilab after the fact I have terrible equity pre flop compared to his range after he has called me. K8s vs (best guess with limited stats) 88+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+ (taking out AA & KK which, at the least, he should have 3bet). 33% vs 67%.

On the flop that gets even worse - 20% vs 80%. Perhaps so bad I should not have C bet.
Despite gaining draws on the turn it is still 27% vs 73% vs his range, and that is without even ruling out some hands he might have folded to the C bet on the flop, although with a range that tight it is hard to think what he would not call the C bet with.

Despite all that suddenly when the 4d hits I am a huge favourite against his estimated range - 85% vs 15%

Dump K8s pre. It is a really terrible hand, it can't make straights, and it has kicker problems.

Really bad flop for us. Basically all we have is backdoor flush draw, and the board is already paired. I don't really like to continue here. Our range never smashes this flop, other than ATs or 99. I would check/fold. (We can really only be value-betting with AT, 99, AA and KK sometimes, and maybe QJc.)

Turn, we pick up a gutter and the 2nd nut flush draw. We lead out, again our percieved range here is overpairs and maybe QJc. I check here, hope to see a free river. If he called the flop he can certainly call this turn, no fold equity imo on a non-club 3. I don't like our hand at all, this villain looks really aggro if i'm reading the stats right (which i might not be, if so forgive me.) His check call line can either be slow-playing TT, 99, T9, or drawing to a better flush. I can check/fold this spot i think, but a check/call might not be a mistake.

River makes our flush. We lead an then get min-raised. This screams boat or maybe A-high flush. I think we have to call simply because we are risking 20 BB to win over 80. Also, we can't be betting all the way up to the river with a draw, hit our card, and then fold. That is just bad imo. Either check/fold on flop or turn, otherwise be prepared to defend your flush.

I need to clarify my first post. You loved getting raised, this river raise is sickening to me. I have a hard time believing we are ever ahead. What hand here calls*** flop, calls turn, and then min-raises river when the frontdoor flush misses and backdoor comes in? The guy has a 6.9 vpip so I have a hard time putting him on a str8 or a worse flush. Trip tens isn’t calling, calling, min-raising. What do we beat?


Also, remember that ranges aren't static throughout a hand, i think you already mentioned this but it is important to know that just because villain could have 6 combos of, say, 88 pre, that doesn't mean he has those still in his range gettting to a river.


***note I realize he didn’t check call as I had said previously, srry.

Regarding the raise at the end, I suppose I'm not giving enough credit for players representing hands. And not putting the story of the hand together, as you've nicely laid out there above. Can see that in the light of day, but struggling a bit at the table, in some situations.

Anyway, I did defend the flush having got myself into that mess, and as you might suspect it did not end well!

TenJack said:

Dump K8s pre. It is a really terrible hand, it can't make straights, and it has kicker problems.

Really bad flop for us. Basically all we have is backdoor flush draw, and the board is already paired. I don't really like to continue here. Our range never smashes this flop, other than ATs or 99. I would check/fold. (We can really only be value-betting with AT, 99, AA and KK sometimes, and maybe QJc.)

Turn, we pick up a gutter and the 2nd nut flush draw. We lead out, again our percieved range here is overpairs and maybe QJc. I check here, hope to see a free river. If he called the flop he can certainly call this turn, no fold equity imo on a non-club 3. I don't like our hand at all, this villain looks really aggro if i'm reading the stats right (which i might not be, if so forgive me.) His check call line can either be slow-playing TT, 99, T9, or drawing to a better flush. I can check/fold this spot i think, but a check/call might not be a mistake.

River makes our flush. We lead an then get min-raised. This screams boat or maybe A-high flush. I think we have to call simply because we are risking 20 BB to win over 80. Also, we can't be betting all the way up to the river with a draw, hit our card, and then fold. That is just bad imo. Either check/fold on flop or turn, otherwise be prepared to defend your flush.

Click to expand...

I agree with you except the call otr. We never win here.

Pot odds man. folding 4/1 is heresy. (I agree with you, we aren't really ever going to win.)

Holding K8's of diamonds in MP+2 is not a very good staring hand. I agree that its value of making a straight is hard but not impossible. And it does have a weak kicker.
However, Hero did see 4 folds in front and decided to take a chance with a an open raise to isolate. This move worked pre-flop. But unfortunately, with a bad flop showing a pair already on the board and a flush draw of clubs. The Hero should have tread lightly.
The continuation bet was okay to me to show some aggression . But; once the villian called the flop bet, hero should have checked it down and prepared to fold if they encountered a bet.

BTN: 295 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
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Looks like nit. I think his calling range preflop is very narrow, something like AQs-ATs, AJo-AQo, 88-JJ or 77-JJ, KJs+, QJs and maybe JTs. Given this range, when he raises otr, he can has AdQd, JJ, TT, 99, JTs if he calls with this preflop and you have to decide if ever he can raise with ATs. If yes it is 10 combos vs 2, if no it is 10 combos vs 0.